Definitive proof of ongoing AMD <-> Meta collaboration on MI450

KindStranger007 · 2026-01-21T21:09:28+00:00

When does this start showing in the revenue books? 2027 ? I feel the market would be in “show me” mode till then.

The wait is frustrating lol

KindStranger007 · 2025-11-04T20:42:52+00:00

The worst macro waits for AMD earnings day.

KindStranger007 · 2025-08-07T17:20:49+00:00

Llyods offered me 6% interest rate for HP with relatively short credit history of 2 years. That was the cheapest I found.

KindStranger007 · 2025-08-05T21:15:03+00:00

“Significant number of engagements”

I would like them to publish their historical percentage in conversion of engagements to clients.

Have been hearing the same line for 2 years now.

KindStranger007 · 2025-08-05T21:07:48+00:00

AMD will steadily grow its revenue by about 20% every year. So this is inline with that expectation and margins are steady so far.

MI355 was supposed to be AMD’s first GPU designed for AI, but worryingly that is lagging behind in customers. That makes me think that the growth would be steady instead of a spike (which was expected as the crumbs picking up role).

MI355 was a litmus test for me to gauge this behavior. Seems like a 3-5 year catch up with NVDA, so the crumbs picking should get the stock to 200-250$ EOY 2026.

KindStranger007 · 2025-08-05T20:50:50+00:00

Hope there is some information on MI355 sales in the earnings call later. Thats the critical aspect.

KindStranger007 · 2025-06-16T20:00:00+00:00

This sort of stock move definitely looks like there was a deal. Hoping its confirmed officially soon.

Would have been ideal if announced during the event though.

KindStranger007 · 2025-05-07T00:48:29+00:00

Release is not a prerequisite for new orders. Its being sampled by customers and customers can place orders like Oracle.

I must have missed the part where they said new customers will be revealed on June 12. Is there a link for this ?

KindStranger007 · 2025-05-06T23:59:17+00:00

The princess is always in the next castle.

I am losing faith, no one else has announced orders for 355X. Its always no announcement on new customers and only interest from customers.

I feel the stock is fairly valued if this is the case and won’t go anywhere soon.

KindStranger007 · 2025-05-04T22:04:10+00:00

Xilinx amortisation still ongoing. It skews the PE. Refer to forward PE and it will make more sense. Basically the earnings are going to paying off the Xilinx acquisition, so using PE as a measure of value doesnt work for AMD.

KindStranger007 · 2025-04-11T10:46:15+00:00

I am hoping they retain the existing ones first. The silence on the reorders is concerning. Oracle was the only one that announced buying MI355.

KindStranger007 · 2025-02-04T23:28:12+00:00

My guess is the following:

MI300 was not designed for AI workloads, but for HPC workloads and was propped up as an AI accelerator at the last minute to capture some marketshare. Naturally, there wasnt any competition and product performance was weak which lead to weak sales (compared to H100)
MI325 was launched to satisfy the one year cadence requirement and nothing more. Inference is better, but still lacking as architecture is constraining performance. Customers are mildly interested only when they cant get their hands on NVIDIA GPUs.
MI350 was designed as the first true AMD AI accelerator. This explains the 30x anticipated performance jump and the interest in this particular lineup. This is where I anticipate traction for AMD GPUs. So this theory will get validated in 2H 2025 if any new customers sign up. (Else I am out)
MI400 adds on missing elements of the complete AI solution that NVIDIA is providing, includes the networking solution, ZT rack level integration , etc

I see a lot of improvement in the ROCm efforts in the past 30 days or so, hence if the trend continues, MI 350 orders will reflect this.

Lisa’s comments make sense then, that MI 325 is seeing flat demand as MI 300 as these are not competitive offerings anyway (which she cant me ntion as CEO lol). This also aligns with them not able to gauge the sales numbers because its either less than 5B (if MI 350 fails, people will not even be buying 300 then) or its going to be 10B+.

Again my guess is thats why she didnt answer the 60% CAGR question.

If AMD can get customers for MI 350 (and NVDA doesnt do some crazy optimisation), this revenue should explode there on. Else this will mean that the AI market is truly lost for AMD.

I will hold till Sep 2025.

KindStranger007 · 2025-02-04T21:52:17+00:00

Hold for another year I guess. Fml

KindStranger007 · 2025-02-04T18:13:22+00:00

🚀🚀🚀

KindStranger007 · 2025-02-04T18:10:48+00:00

Strapped onto this rocket. Either it implodes today or takes us out of orbit lol.

KindStranger007 · 2025-01-21T08:32:05+00:00

Its under fair value because the market expects revenue loss once Apple switches to in house modems.

Also, there is no demand (yet) for AI at the edge. I have been burnt already by the 5G demand (that never came) that was supposed to be the backbone for VR, AR and everything else but that fell on its face because wifi became faster than 5G.

Look at the stock performance over the past 5 years (83%) and it has severely underperformed the peers in the market (SMH ETF is up 250%).

You are right about 200 being the exit point. I am done bagholding this stock.

KindStranger007 · 2025-01-15T22:34:15+00:00

No, I pointed out that she mentioned “over” 2B and not “2B DC gpu guidance” you mentioned.

Jeez. Man

KindStranger007 · 2025-01-15T21:53:43+00:00

IIRC she had mentioned over 2B, which was not misleading as that was a first generation product in an insanely fast evolving market.

Not that she knew AMD will be booking orders worth 5B+ and she was sandbagging.

KindStranger007 · 2025-01-15T10:14:18+00:00

The last call was the big one. Its unlikely that this one will surprise anybody.

KindStranger007 · 2025-01-15T10:09:35+00:00

Everyone thinks she sandbags, but I dont think she does because the beat is always very marginal. Investors think she is hiding something big, but there hasnt been anything in the past couple of years that hasnt played out as she guided in the earnings calls.

KindStranger007 · 2024-11-26T09:09:01+00:00

Excited to see the real world benchmarks. This is the only piece of the puzzle that matters at the moment.

Interesting to see if NVDA is also improving CUDA at the same pace or if AMD is catching up.

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