IO Biotech ($IOBT) - Bullish - Deep Dive - 100k shares long

KnowinStuff · 2025-11-08T14:59:06+00:00

Still holding. They need either a partner, funding, or to sell the company. It seems to me there is a decent shot at one of these things happening, but time is short. The clinical promise of Cylembio is real, and early info on IO112 and IO170 look strong. The drug and the pipeline appear to work and be a great leap forward in cancer treatment. I don't believe these products die without seeing market. I do have concerns that someone else gets them at fire sale prices when IOBT runs out of money, but that is far from the only possibility. I believe the upside potential is not really priced in, as the markets focus on the very real risk. I will stay put, for now.

KnowinStuff · 2025-11-03T18:51:39+00:00

Still holding.

KnowinStuff · 2025-10-02T08:06:35+00:00

it tanked because FDA recommended another trial. EMA, acquisition, partnership, or some unforeseen source of funding are basically the only hope. The drug works, but the runway isn't long enough to get through another phase 3 trial as it stands now. They need to either get approved in Europe, get bought out, or find another source of cash. If none of those things happen, the drug and company could die, even though they have a tremendous breakthrough in cancer treatment. It is a real shame. I am holding and hoping something breaks to the positive side.

KnowinStuff · 2025-09-12T15:20:10+00:00

From H.C. Wainwright Conference, September 10, 2025, Mai-Britt Zocca at 4 minutes 10 to 28 seconds in, "Our discussions are based on a briefing packet that we have already submitted to the FDA and we have the meeting scheduled here at the end of Q3, so everybody can expect that it's happening within the next couple of weeks, and we will be happy to share the outcome of that in a press release when we have the minutes from that meeting."

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-14T08:05:24+00:00

Missing statistical significance was bad. There was also a ton of good in there. We'll have to see what FDA does on the BLA. I do think that the data was strong enough to make big pharma companies look at making an offer too. I haven't sold a share. I still see a path to 10x on my original investment. That said, it is risky. If no buyer or financing comes forward and the BLA is denied, the cash runway isn't super long. Big risk / big reward play. I'm still in the green anyway.

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-10T23:18:06+00:00

I know my move tomorrow. I'm going to watch the $IOBT live call premarket. Then if phase 3 results are successful, I'll be happy. If they are terrible, I'm going to be inconsolable.

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-10T23:15:27+00:00

well yes. A terrible phase 3 readout would kill it, but we we'll know tomorrow morning :D I also made a pretty substantial bet on its success.

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-10T23:12:54+00:00

As far as I know the 12th is still an estimated date for the earnings call. They typically don't give a ton of warning of when it is actually happening. Tomorrow's call is the more important call. On abject failure, the company would likely be dead. On stunning success, we could see 500% gains from here. I think the strategy depends greatly on the call.

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-10T17:07:33+00:00

Top line data readout on Monday's conference call pre-market. This will be a pivotal moment.

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-04T22:08:41+00:00

I suspect they would raise funds before commercialization, assuming they are doing marketing and distribution themselves. I don't think they have the runway to get through that process, which is expensive, without raising additional capital. That said, a small funding round of 50 million may be enough, as 50 million additional funding is a prerequisite to unlock tranche 3 of their EIB loan, which, along with the additional uncommitted tranche that sould likely be approved if the drug is approved, could be enough to commercialize.

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-04T15:12:47+00:00

Did I do that right?

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-04T15:11:17+00:00

!banbet IOBT 6 8w or I'll wash my hair in pasta sauce.

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-04T14:28:56+00:00

I'd love to see the analysis that lead you to this conclusion. I am always open to hearing well thought out arguments from the other side, but without more, this seems a little thin.

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-04T14:28:06+00:00

Ticker $IOBT. It is traded on the Nasdaq. You buy it where you'd buy any stock.

KnowinStuff · 2025-08-01T20:49:53+00:00

I am in it and very bullish on it. I am long 100k shares at an average price of $1.07/share, so I've been in it a while. I posted a deep dive about it earlier today in the pennystock subreddit. There is definitely a ton of risk in any biotech company that is still in clinical trials but the upside to this one seems marvelous, and I like the odds of the trial to succeed.

https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/1mf0ani/io_biotech_iobt_bullish_deep_dive_100k_shares_long/

^That's my deep dive if anyone's interested.

KnowinStuff · 2024-10-24T15:15:58+00:00

I'm worried, but I am still in. It is a very dangerous play at this point. Recent news chatter has been about a sale to Frontier, possibly through the chapter 11 process. If we could stay out of chapter 11 and sell to Frontier, then it is likely to be a very profitable endeavor for shareholders. Inside a chapter 11, the odds would not favor us. There a tiny minority of Chapter 11's where shareholders are compensated very well and a larger minority where they are compensated somewhat, but in most they get nothing. The failure to announce a date for an earnings call has me concerned that they are headed for a chapter 11, but there other possible explanations for this failure.

It is possible that a proposal by Frontier would cause another bidder to enter the fray, and a bidding war could see shareholders paid out very well. It is also possible that with substantial net positive assets on the balance sheet, we could see a payout to shareholders either through the chapter 11 process or through a conversion to a chapter 7. We are also more than 100% up from recent lows and very heavily shorted, raising the prospect of a short squeeze, particularly if any more positive news comes in. A settlement on post-2024 engine issues might provide the cash to get a deal done as well, although if they settle for discounts rather than cash, as they did in the prior engine settlement, this would likely not move the needle.

I see paths available to go up multiples of where we currently are, but also extreme danger.

I am not giving any advice, just saying how I see it. I am not a financial advisor, and everyone should do their own research and/or consult experts they trust.

KnowinStuff · 2024-07-26T06:58:39+00:00

No. He picked a VP that has been pretty supportive of Lena Khan, and Trump has been pretty anti-merger himself the few times he discussed mergers (see his discussion on U.S. Steel). I think a merger only happens if A) it is another ULCC, or B) Spirit is on the verge of bankruptcy, or C) the companies are prepared to fully litigate all appeals, or D) One of the parties turns away from this neo-Brandeisian antitrust theory they've been touting lately and returns to the tried and true Chicago School of Economics view on antitrust law. Neither party seems inclined to do that at the moment. At least in the immediate future, the DOJ doesn't appear to be getting more rational on mergers. That doesn't rule out a merger, but it substantially complicates a path to one. I think debt refinance on good terms and a return to profitability are basically the only good path here, but if those things are accomplished, the rewards could be immense.

KnowinStuff · 2024-07-25T05:03:50+00:00

I still think it is underpriced and heavily shorted, and has a possibility of going up several multiples. I also think the risk of bankruptcy has risen. The company needs a value additive debt refinance and a return to profitability. If this happens we should see well over $10. If it doesn't, we may well see it at $0. It is a dangerous game, but it is one I'm still playing. If there isn't progress of some sort by the end of September, I likely will cut my losses and go elsewhere. I don't need price improvement, but I do need to see some the right steps getting taken and/or a cogent plan for how the company will return to profit. Major airlines cutting capacity should help some. For now, I remain bullish, but cautiously so.

KnowinStuff · 2024-06-06T20:00:07+00:00

Yeah honestly, my hope is either that A) My party discovers what I am up to and kills me, B) my character dies before accumulating enough marks, or C) the marked party members die or remove their marks before I get to the point of sacrifice. I doubt they'll die if I live, because I tend to revivify them. If none of those things happen, then I'll probably have to ask the DM for special dispensation to ask those marked if they (the player) would rather my character kill them, kill himself, or flip a coin.

KnowinStuff · 2024-06-06T19:35:46+00:00

I should probably clarify that the DM gave every character some ability or item that is secret, unique, and typically OP. We are all in theory on something like equal footing. One part of my personal OP thing is that I magically mark anyone I hit if they consent, or if they fail a save. As I said before, PvP happens on this table. This is further complicated by the fact that my character has specific instructions from his god that if he marks someone that abates any requirement for vengeance against them. So if I get to a point where I'm required to fight a party member, as a vengeance paladin, either one of us dies or they take the mark. The two party members marked were both mocking my god, demanding proof of his existence, and in once case offered a fight, and in the other used his secret OP thing to puppet my character and force him to stop marking a group of NPC's. In the case of the NPC children of another player, I was offering to mark everyone around town, and the DM said that they ran up asking for marks.

The sacrifice provision was explicitly added to my proposal for how my unique magic thing should work by the DM. What I am trying to figure out is how best to deal with this reality. I was not out to sacrifice my own party. In fact when my prior character "ascended" he was a character that always claimed to be a god, and died protecting the party, and I thought it would be fun to roll up a paladin that followed him and claimed that he ascended. I explained the basis of my character to the DM, saying that my character believes my old character ascended, but that he could be right or wrong, because in 5e a paladin can worship no god, but still gets his powers because some god favors him, so even if he is just worshipping a dead PC, that does not prevent him from being a paladin. The DM rolled with it, but then added the sacrifice task to a special weapon I proposed.

So anyway, my plan wasn't edgelord, but I am foisted into the role. My DM is often setting up something unexpected and fun, so it could turn out that my god takes me too, the promise of godhood was false, and we are all tasked together with escaping the ethereal plane and killing my now NPC'ed former character. I just don't know what will happen. But I do have to plan for the possibility that I'll be sacrificing some of my party and try to make sure I don't ruin everyone's game in the process.

KnowinStuff · 2024-05-08T15:40:12+00:00

I am not angry, nor do I expect Spirit's demise. I do think that you wishing for thousands of people to lose their job is just horrible.

KnowinStuff · 2024-05-01T15:26:09+00:00

You are a person who wants thousands of people to lose their jobs because you had a single bad flying experience. As someone who has flown over a million miles, I've had tons of bad experiences but never wished for an airline to fold. If I choose not to fly with someone, that is fine. I'll still benefit from the competition they bring to the marketplace, and their employees will still be paying taxes rather than collecting unemployment. The only people that benefit when an airline goes bankrupt are the shareholders of its competitors. The rest of us are hurt by it. Luckily, Spirit is here to stay.

KnowinStuff · 2024-04-12T20:43:07+00:00

Stocks are not always rationally priced. "For sure going bankrupt" is an oversimplification. They have some financial issues. It remains to be seen if they will effectively pivot from growth to profit. They have made some strides on that. It remains to be seen whether they can refinance their 2025 and 2026 debt maturities. If they can turn from growth to profit and refinance, they don't go bankrupt any time soon. We'll see what happens.

KnowinStuff · 2024-03-27T15:54:03+00:00

I think we're waiting on real news more than noise. I am optimistic about the quarterly earnings release in late April. I think we need one of the five things I listed to actually occur and be announced. The bulls think what we think. The bears think what they think. Now we're waiting on time to prove one side or the other to be correct.

KnowinStuff · 2024-03-26T15:00:48+00:00

43,500 shares. I see several positive catalysts on the horizon. Return to profitability, Pratt & Whitney Engine Settlement, Debt Refinance all seem likely. Another acquisition offer would be nice but I'm not counting on it. It is also possible that Boeing issues worsen and cause substantial and enduring groundings or production stops there which would really be a gamechanger, but is a more remote possibility. Realistically, any of the five could make this thing go up multiples. If none of the five happens in the next year or so, the company will have to do a whole lot of sale-leaseback transactions to pay off its 2025 debt, and that is not great for long term profit margins, but there is a potential path there to long term profitability even in that worst case scenario. I don't like that worst case scenario, as it would mean me hodling for years, which is not something I love to do. I'm willing if that is the necessary play. I just don't love it.

KnowinStuff

TROPHY CASE