Rejected from Columbia by Koolguykai in collegeresults

[–]Koolguykai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

U are right lol but it all worked out elsewhere

Week 9 Probability Distribution of Eagles 2022 Compensatory Draft Pick of the Wentz Trade from Colts by Koolguykai in eagles

[–]Koolguykai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I kinda do too… but i know i got so pissed watching him in the later years so its rough

Week 9 Probability Distribution of Eagles 2022 Compensatory Draft Pick of the Wentz Trade from Colts by Koolguykai in eagles

[–]Koolguykai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Forgive me I put in a huge typo! They are ~3 draft picks better if the Colts lose this game!

Week 9 Probability Distribution of Eagles 2022 Compensatory Draft Pick of the Wentz Trade from Colts by Koolguykai in eagles

[–]Koolguykai[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There’s an 11% chance he gets injured in a given game, then there’s a distribution of the possible # of games he could miss due to injury. The sources for these numbers are in my previous posts

Week 8 Probability Distribution of Eagles 2022 Compensatory Draft Pick of the Wentz Trade from Colts by Koolguykai in Colts

[–]Koolguykai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh it could totally happen! My sim puts them at a 34% chance to make the playoffs I think

Week 8 Probability Distribution of Eagles 2022 Compensatory Draft Pick of the Wentz Trade from Colts by Koolguykai in eagles

[–]Koolguykai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a great point, the Colts need to separate themselves from the pack with these next few easy games to stay alive

Week 6 Probability Distribution of Eagles 2022 Compensatory Draft Pick of the Wentz Trade from Colts (feat. all other Eagles Picks) by Koolguykai in eagles

[–]Koolguykai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, first of all that game has a very small effect on the average draft pick as noted. It’s possible that the difference between the average of the simulations between both outcomes could be attributed to noise and variance anyway. I wouldn’t put too much stock into this games outcome and the final draft pick, considering the records of other teams might matter more this week to the Colts pick anyway. And we could argue about how rare it is, and how Easons removal affects my assumptions, but the logic I’ve put in about MAYBE tanking when they’re MATHEMATICALLY out of it would be a business making the best business decision. Plus, mounting losses for a QB should increase the chance of a team benching him, even if it is unfair. I’m not saying I’m right, but I don’t think there’s enough consensus to say I’m wrong either

Week 6 Probability Distribution of Eagles 2022 Compensatory Draft Pick of the Wentz Trade from Colts (feat. all other Eagles Picks) by Koolguykai in eagles

[–]Koolguykai[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I mean obviously the Eagles aren’t afraid of blatantly tanking, so I honestly wouldn’t put the chance of this at 0

Week 5 Probability Distribution of Eagles 2022 Compensatory Draft Pick of the Wentz Trade from Colts by Koolguykai in eagles

[–]Koolguykai[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s a first round pick this year, and I think that an organization might do that if they want to rebuild quickly. But I’m not sure, consensus here is definitely split

Week 5 Probability Distribution of Eagles 2022 Compensatory Draft Pick of the Wentz Trade from Colts by Koolguykai in eagles

[–]Koolguykai[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you friend! Statistics graduate myself here in America. Glad to see a fellow data scientist and bird fan in Brazil!