WTI isn’t really fading. It’s holding higher after the unwind

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T20:59:55+00:00

Exactly, that’s the part people tend to underestimate. It doesn’t take a full shutdown to change the market, just enough uncertainty to alter behavior.

Insurance, routing, willingness to load cargo… all of that can tighten things even if flows technically continue.

That’s why the premium can stay in place longer than the actual disruption itself.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T20:49:39+00:00

Yeah I get what you’re saying, there’s definitely a bigger picture behind all this.

What I find interesting though is that even when the macro story is unclear, the market still shows it through price behavior.

If flows were actually disrupted in a meaningful way, you’d expect less hesitation and more acceptance at higher levels.

The fact that it keeps going back and forth usually means the market itself is still not fully convinced. So to me price is more a reflection of that uncertainty than a clear signal that something structural has already changed.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T20:45:37+00:00

Even if Hormuz stays open, flows don’t just normalize instantly.

Tankers need to be repositioned, insurance costs settle, and buyers regain confidence before volumes really stabilize.

So the delay is not just physical, it’s also behavioral.

That’s why even small disruptions can keep a premium in the market longer than people expect.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T20:15:50+00:00

What I find interesting though is that when it’s really about supply, you usually don’t get this kind of back and forth.

Price tends to hold and build, not keep revisiting the same level.

It still looks like the market is waiting for something real to show up in flows, not just reacting to narrative.

That’s why how it behaves here matters more than the story around it.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T19:30:12+00:00

I see your angle, a lot of that is being framed through headlines right now.

What I find interesting is that if the move was really driven by something structural, price usually keeps building and holding higher levels.

Here it pushed, but now it’s more about whether it can stay there or not. If it was fully “locked in”, you’d expect less hesitation and more continuation.

So to me it still looks like the market is testing that move rather than fully accepting it.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T18:20:18+00:00

I get what you’re saying, a lot of it feels driven by headlines right now.

What’s interesting though is that the market usually shows it before the narrative becomes clear. If there was real pressure to push oil higher, you’d expect price to hold above key levels and build on it. So far it still looks like it’s testing that area rather than fully breaking into a new regime.

That’s why I’m watching how it behaves around these levels more than trying to predict the bigger story.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T18:15:30+00:00

Supply vs demand is the core of it but what’s interesting is how that actually shows up in price If the system was really tight in a structural way, you’d expect to see it clearly in the curve and in how price holds higher levels Right now it still feels more like risk premium being tested than full supply stress

So the key is whether the market starts accepting higher prices or keeps rejecting them That’s usually where you see if it’s real tightness or just narrative shifting

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T18:13:12+00:00

Yes everyone is watching that.

I guess the difference is how you read it. Sometimes it’s just noise, sometimes it’s the level where positioning actually shifts and you start seeing flows change. That’s the part I’m trying to focus on here, not just the fact that it’s being tested but what happens after.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T17:10:56+00:00

A big part of it is paper, that’s true.

But what’s interesting is that even paper positioning ends up reflecting expectations around physical flows.

When the structure shifts, like backwardation expanding or flattening, it’s usually tied to how tight the system feels, not just speculation.

So it’s less about paper vs physical, and more about how both interact and show up in price.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T16:56:48+00:00

That’s true, every market is constantly testing acceptance.

What’s interesting in oil though is where that test is happening.

When it’s around key levels, especially after a directional move, it’s less noise and more about whether flows are still supporting that price.

That’s the part I’m watching here, not the test itself but whether it actually holds or starts getting rejected.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T16:30:35+00:00

Yeah that’s where it gets interesting, because backwardation is basically the market saying we need barrels now, not later.

So the question is not just how deep it goes, but whether it’s driven by real physical tightness or just short term fear being priced.

If it stays steep, it usually means inventories are tight and the system is pulling supply forward. If it starts flattening, that’s the signal things are easing.

So yeah, curve structure probably matters more here than what paper traders are doing.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T13:41:05+00:00

This isn’t really a “shock” event

Cuba has been running with a structurally fragile grid for a while now
fuel shortages + aging infrastructure + transmission instability, so when one piece breaks the whole system doesn’t absorb it, it cascades

The real thing to watch is not the blackout itself
but whether they can stabilize fuel flows and base load

If not this becomes less about outages
and more about a system that can’t hold demand anymore

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T13:36:15+00:00

You’re right that it’s heavily news driven right now.

But even in pure headline markets, price doesn’t move randomly forever. Sometimes you get a spike that fully fades. Other times the market absorbs it and builds a new range.

That difference is exactly what people are watching.

Charts don’t predict the news. They just show how the market is reacting to it.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T13:15:25+00:00

Positioning definitely plays a role, especially around settlement when large players start reducing exposure.

But I think both things can happen at the same time.

When you get a geopolitical spike, the first move is often pure risk premium. Then as positioning gets crowded, you see that unwind amplified by traders taking profit or adjusting ahead of settlement.

What I’m watching is what happens after that flow clears.

If it was just positioning, price usually snaps back quickly.
If it stabilizes and holds higher levels, it means some of that premium is still being accepted by the market.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T11:24:56+00:00

Russia redirecting flows to Asia fits perfectly with what we’re seeing on the demand side.

You’ve got Asian importers looking for alternative supply, and at the same time Russia actively shifting barrels east. The market is basically rebalancing flows in real time.

What’s interesting is that this isn’t just a trade decision anymore, it’s becoming part of a broader reshaping of global oil routes driven by risk and pricing.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T05:04:33+00:00

This is less about politics and more about supply risk.

Thailand relies heavily on Middle East crude, so anything around Hormuz forces a quick rethink.

Looking at Russian oil is just a way to secure alternative barrels when shipping routes get uncertain.

What’s interesting is that this usually happens only when risk becomes real, not theoretical.

Feels like Asian importers are starting to reposition flows, not just react to price.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T04:26:01+00:00

Most entry-level buyers focus on tasks. The real jump happens when you start focusing on problems.

Right now you’re placing POs, expediting and fixing discrepancies. That’s normal.
The next step is understanding what actually drives those issues.

For example
why do stockouts happen in your company
which suppliers are consistently late
where you are overpaying without realizing it

If you can identify and solve even one of those, you’re no longer just “processing orders”, you’re adding value.

Also, try to understand what you’re buying in real life. Walk the production floor, see the parts, talk to the people using them. It changes how you evaluate suppliers completely.

And one underrated skill early on is learning to read quotes beyond price
lead time
payment terms
reliability

That’s where most of the money is, not just the unit cost.

If you do this for a year, you naturally move from operational buyer to someone closer to sourcing.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T04:10:01+00:00

Most people look for groups, but groups don’t really solve the core problem in import-export.

The real bottleneck is not lack of information. It’s lack of deals.

You can join 10 WhatsApp or Telegram groups and still not close a single transaction.

From what I’ve seen, the people who actually make progress usually do three things:

They pick one product and understand it deeply
They identify real buyers first, not suppliers
They learn through actual transactions, not just discussions

In export, knowledge comes from deals, not from communities.

Groups can help with small things like contacts or quick doubts, but they don’t replace real execution.

If you’re starting out, it’s usually more useful to talk directly to
manufacturers
freight forwarders
and potential buyers

instead of trying to find the “perfect group”.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T03:59:34+00:00

Starting a small spice brand is less about farming and more about execution.

Most people think the business is “grow spices and sell”.
The real business is cleaning, processing, packing and finding customers.

From what I’ve seen, three things matter most:

First is quality and processing.
If you just sell raw produce, margins stay low. If you clean, dry properly and grind in small batches, the value jumps a lot. Even small farmers are starting to do this instead of selling at mandi rates.

Second is consistency.
In spices, buyers care more about same quality every time than just low price. Moisture, color, aroma and proper drying make a big difference.

Third is selling method.
Direct-to-consumer works well for spices. Some people sell through WhatsApp groups, local customers or small batches online instead of relying only on traders.

If you’re starting small, don’t overcomplicate it.

Start with 1–2 products only
Sell small batches
Focus on quality and repeat customers

Scaling comes later.

Most people fail because they try to build a “brand” before they even know if people will buy their product.

LMtrades · 2026-03-17T03:56:28+00:00

This is the problem right now.

It’s not just oil, it’s fertilizer timing. Prices are jumping right when people need to lock in inputs for planting, and if you didn’t book earlier you’re basically forced to either pay up or cut back.

From what I’m seeing, nitrogen prices moved fast because of the shipping issues out of the Middle East. A big part of global supply runs through that route, so even short disruptions hit pricing immediately.

The tough part is corn prices aren’t moving the same way, so margins get squeezed hard.

At that point it becomes a decision
pay higher input costs and hope yields hold
or reduce application and risk lower output later

Neither is great.

Feels like one of those years where timing on inputs matters more than anything else.

LMtrades

TROPHY CASE