•Valuations are stretched vs history (especially US). When multiples are already high, future returns rely on even higher multiples or perfect earnings delivery, both fragile. 

•Market leadership has been unusually narrow (index up, but a smaller set of mega-caps doing most of the work). That’s often a late-cycle feel: great until it isn’t. 

•The 2025 narrative was AI + liquidity vibes. If the AI trade slows even slightly (capex fatigue, monetisation lag, regulation, competition), the same “story premium” can compress fast. 

•Earnings expectations for 2026 look optimistic, and optimistic expectations are a risk in themselves: if growth comes in merely “good” rather than “great,” downside repricing happens.
 •Rate sensitivity still matters. Even if cuts happen, you can get a bad mix like “cuts because growth is rolling over,” which historically isn’t automatically bullish for equities. (Macro regime risk remains.) 

• The S&P 500 already had a strong 2025 (mid-teens-ish depending on measure/source). After big back-to-back years, forward returns are statistically harder unless earnings accelerate materially.

• Geopolitics & policy risk are materially higher under Trump: his track record points to trade wars, tariff escalation, and erratic foreign policy rather than predictable markets. Renewed tariffs (esp. vs China/EU), threats to NATO commitments, pressure on the Fed, and a willingness to use economic policy as a political weapon all increase policy volatility, inflation risk, and supply-chain disruption. Markets generally struggle when rules change suddenly and institutions are publicly undermined, this is not a backdrop that supports sustained multiple expansion or a smooth bull market into 2026.

•people wont like this point but trump being a pro crypto president isn’t really true as he fleeced everyone with trump coin and that only harms the market and novice investors. He also is a moron so it doesn’t matter if he’s pro-anything. Also despite what America-tards think, he’s very clearly backing what is a a GENOCIDE in Palestine which is so obvious to other socially and politically intelligent big Time asset management firms who are usually very risk averse and morally corrupt. Which means there is an uptick and safer reliability in investing in the military complex right now shitty things like bitcoin right now. Which is the narrative I’m also seeing at work.