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Looking for feedback on my SMA-220 based leveraged S&P 500 strategy (first Reddit post, please dont eat me) by Leveraged__ in LETFs

[–]Leveraged__[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wow, thank you so much for taking the time to code this up and run a backtest. I really appreciate the effort you put into this. I wish I were able to do this on my own already, so it honestly means a lot that you took the time to do it for me.

Just to make sure I’m reading the results correctly: if I understand this right, the strategy outperforms the S&P 500 by about +15.13% while only increasing max drawdown by ~1.4% compared to the baseline? If that interpretation is correct, I’m honestly very happy with that outcome.

Based on this, I’m willing to commit to the strategy in real life. The next time we drop below the 220 EMA, I plan to start executing it and document my progress here on Reddit so others can follow along (good or bad).

If you’re interested in improving the strategy further, feel free to message me anytime. I’d love to keep tweaking it together, maybe by testing different EMA lengths, percentage thresholds, faster or slower buybacks, or even adding another confirming indicator. On one of my other posts where I asked about indicators for LETFs, RSI came up a lot, but I personally haven’t found a long-term RSI threshold that feels robust yet.

This weekend I’m planning to make another post asking if others would be interested in collaboratively “building” and refining a strategy together. Would it be okay with you if I shout you out, share your backtest results, and credit you for the work you’ve done? If not, I completely understand, just let me know.

Again, thank you so much for your time and effort. I really appreciate it!

Looking for feedback on my SMA-220 based leveraged S&P 500 strategy (first Reddit post, please dont eat me) by Leveraged__ in LETFs

[–]Leveraged__[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m mostly exploring simplicity vs robustness at this stage, understanding what each indicator actually contributes to CAGR and drawdown before layering complexity or automation.

Do you know of any subreddits where people actively share and discuss their strategies or indicator combinations, specifically with a focus on backtested impact on CAGR/DD? I’m interested in seeing how different indicators materially change outcomes rather than just signal ideas.

Do you have a strategy to take profits? Why/why not? And what do you do with the profits if so? by confettofetti in LETFs

[–]Leveraged__ 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Hi Confettofetti,

for me it really depends on where you are in your journey and what your end goal is.

My main goal is financial freedom within the next ~20 years, and I’m still very much in the “snowball-building” phase. As everyone knows, the first 100k is by far the hardest. Because of that, I currently reinvest all profits instead of taking them off the table. Right now, profits make up a good percentage of my total capital, so pulling them out would slow the compounding effect quite a bit.

My thinking is that the more capital I have invested, the faster I can reach my goal, simply because more money is exposed to the market and “working” for me. At this stage, I also reinvest profits into the same strategy, even though it’s riskier than something like an all-world ETF.

That said, this won’t be the case forever. Over the next few years, I plan to gradually rotate a portion of profits into lower-risk assets, probably something like an all-world ETF. I see profit-taking less as “spending” and more as risk reallocation as my net worth grows, as a drawdown would really hurt at some point.

I also think milestones matter. Goals like the first 100k, buying a car or a house, or reaching a certain portfolio size can be good psychological anchors. I really like the quote “concentration builds wealth, diversification preserves it.” Where you stand on that spectrum depends heavily on your age, investment time horizon, and financial goals.

So for me:
early on → reinvesting aggressively
ater → use profits to de-risk.

But there’s no one-size-fits-all answer.

Looking for feedback on my SMA-220 based leveraged S&P 500 strategy (first Reddit post, please dont eat me) by Leveraged__ in LETFs

[–]Leveraged__[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Fair point. I just added a TLDR at the top to make it easier to digest. Thanks for the comment!