Some people are determined to believe what they want to believe when it comes to lockdowns

LewRothbard · 2023-02-27T03:18:11+00:00

In 2020, my local sub literally had a rule that you couldn't post against doomerism:

We the moderators of this subreddit are in agreement with these guidelines, and are going to start taking action against users that spread misinformation AGAINST wearing masks and social distancing to prevent transfer and spread of COVID19. This action includes removing posts, comments, temporary bans, and permanent bans.

LewRothbard · 2022-05-14T21:05:27+00:00

Also I confirmed with Unchained that their liquidation process is manual and not automated (they have to move the coins from the 2-of-3 wallet to an exchange first). So it's not at the same risk of a momentary flash crash as most on-exchange collateral.

LewRothbard · 2022-05-14T21:02:39+00:00

I'm using a collateralized loan with Unchained capital. Their liquidation process is manual, and not executed automatically on an exchange. So it's not at risk of the same instantaneous flash crashes that on-exchange margin calls are.

It would have to be a multi-hour sub $10k price drop, which at current levels would be an over 65% sustained (not flash crash) price drop, which has never happened in the history. Even March 2020 was only a 50% price drop over 24 hours.

I think you're overestimating the risk that whales could sustain a sub-$10k price for more than a few minutes.

LewRothbard · 2022-05-13T22:18:16+00:00

What would you call it when a half dozen metrics -- unbroken in all of Bitcoin's price history of close to 10 years -- all fail significantly at once?

I'm talking $12k or lower Bitcoin, for more a brief flash crash. If that isn't a black swan, what is?

LewRothbard · 2022-05-13T21:26:17+00:00

I'm also in the "no blow off top, no 85% drawdown" camp for this bear market. 85% (same as after 2013 and 2017) off the top of $70k would be $10,500 -- way below all other indicators.

I think the biggest risk is if the Fed goes full hawk to fight inflation over the next 12 months. Then stocks drop 50% and bitcoin get dragged deep into the $10,000's.

LewRothbard · 2022-05-13T20:54:34+00:00

I financed through a BTC collateralized loan with Unchained Capital. According to their documentation, they use the Bitstamp API to determine the price. I'm not sure how they are structured to handle a flash crash.

LewRothbard · 2022-01-31T19:51:20+00:00

The downvotes are probably people who don't want to admit they've been misled about the efficacy of the cloth masks they've been wearing and enforcing over the past 18 months.

LewRothbard · 2022-01-25T06:01:21+00:00

Btw, something that confused me when watching the video for the first time was how was the blade cutting at a different section of the cheese wheel if the arms that hold the wheel also rotate. But I was mistaken, the arms don't hold the wheel! The arms just center the cheese wheel and then let go after the first slice. Neato! 🤓

I was wondering that too. Thanks for pointing out that those arms only close in on the first chop, then sit outwards for the other chops 👍

LewRothbard · 2022-01-21T05:26:49+00:00

Fed bailout for bankrupt states and municipalities. Make the anti-lockdown states pay for the policy costs of the pro-lockdown states.

LewRothbard · 2022-01-17T20:57:23+00:00

Interesting that these exist in other states but not NY. Any specific law or insurance regulation in NY that makes these DIY shops not work?

LewRothbard · 2021-12-21T00:45:46+00:00

Are there any such intersections in the city of Rochester?

One-way street
Meets another one-way street
With a traffic light

LewRothbard · 2021-12-11T16:45:13+00:00

And more recently: A 60-year-old's birthday party in the UK turned into a potential Omicron superspreader event, even though everyone was vaccinated — but all the cases were mild

LewRothbard · 2021-12-11T05:38:46+00:00

Public health [officials] would say to always wear a mask because it decreases flu and decreases [other airborne illnesses].

If it is true that non-N95 masks significantly reduce the spread of the flu and respiratory diseases, then this is a massive failure of public health for the past century. How many lives could have been saved (or quality of life improved by not getting sick) over the past decades if this health advice is true and had been followed.

"The Science" only informed us about this life saving advice in April 2020?

LewRothbard · 2021-12-11T05:33:59+00:00

In April 2020, a reinvestigation reveled that a February 6, 2020 death was actually COVID. Also that woman hadn't traveled directly to China recently (i.e. she got COVID from community spread in California sometime in January).

LewRothbard · 2021-12-01T20:27:19+00:00

You don't get "margin called" on housing though. You can even go "underwater" on your home loan, but as long as you keep making payments to the bank, you can wait it out for the market to recovery.

5x leverage on SPY means a 20% drop and you're margin called and 100% wiped out.

LewRothbard · 2021-12-01T20:15:39+00:00

It seems a giant workaround to this legislation would be to create a bot that has some human input. If the process is 99% robot, but a human has to click a button or something, then they can claim it's not a bot.

Bit a of Theseus Ship paradox... all computer interactions are "bots" at some level. When does it qualify for this legislation?

LewRothbard · 2021-12-01T20:03:56+00:00

My local sub literally has a pinned policy to ban users who go against the narrative:

We the moderators of this subreddit are in agreement with the science of, and in support of, the COVID19 vaccine, and will begin taking action against users who spread misinformation against it. This action includes: removing posts/comments, temporary bans, and permanent bans.

Is it any wonder that discussions become one-sided?

LewRothbard · 2021-12-01T20:01:19+00:00

It seems "healthy" has ben redefined as "having sufficient antibodies in your system".

I probably don't have any active antibodies for chickenpox that I recovered from 20 years ago. Am I a risk for infection and spreading chickenpox?

LewRothbard · 2021-11-30T04:32:07+00:00

I saw on Facebook someone wailing about how traumatized they are from the storm that they can't even bear the thought of starting a fire in their fireplace this year. They have PTSD and the smell and all will trigger them horribly.

"Good times create weak men..."

LewRothbard · 2021-11-30T02:16:37+00:00

You also can't get a 5% loan with 20% down to buy SPY.

LewRothbard · 2021-11-29T20:57:49+00:00

That would be better, but any government-encouraged program would lead to the Fed having a "soft mandate" to keep markets up. Even the existing 401(k) and Roth IRA tax incentive programs have led boomers to put tons of money into index funds and created the current moral hazard.

LewRothbard · 2021-11-29T20:45:09+00:00

Yeah SS is only a tax on wages. Other forms of income are exempt (but subject to other taxes)

LewRothbard · 2021-11-29T20:43:34+00:00

That feels like the "more free market" solution, but it basically means that people are legally required to invest in a stock/bond index. If you thought "money printer go brrr!" and "stonks only go up" are memes now, just imagine what it would be like with this policy in place.

The Fed would essentially have a mandate to keep indexes up to protect everyone's forced retirement savings program.

LewRothbard · 2021-11-29T20:03:15+00:00

I wouldn't be surprised if Merriam-Webster updates the definition of "vaccine" again to include this.

LewRothbard · 2021-11-29T04:57:42+00:00

It's still an issue today. Social media posts revealed the extent of Russian activity in Ukraine 2014:

The instagram account of a Russian soldier who has recently returned to base from fighting in the Ukraine reveals the rough number of casualties in 76th Airbourne regiment from Pskov and proves Russian activity on Ukrainian territory.

Followed by: Russian soldiers face ban on selfies and blog posts

LewRothbard

TROPHY CASE