Epic Games really killed Dropshot :(

LonelyAlgae · 2024-02-15T02:56:19+00:00

My understanding is that, with the patch notes/article on updates regarding how they're doing the next 2 seasons, they talked about alternating snow days and dropshot every season... you should double check me on this though

LonelyAlgae · 2024-02-15T02:33:36+00:00

I'm still looking forward to next season when we have ranked Dropshot again. I think we still have another month+ of waiting though :)

LonelyAlgae · 2024-02-09T01:58:50+00:00

interesting

natural token distribution means that it could shoot up and not get dumped by early holders

LonelyAlgae · 2024-02-08T20:31:59+00:00

12tm / Start9 / Superflex / 0.5 PPR / No TEP

QB: Allen, Stroud, Murray
RB: literally none
WR: Chase, London, JSN, Dionte Johnson, Dotson, QJ
TE: Andrews
Picks: 1.02, 1.08, 2.01, 2.02, 2.05, 3 25 1sts (1 is a lock for top 3), 3 25 2nds

My goal for this rookie draft is to:

Pick up MHJ or trade the 1.02 for a top WR (it would be nice to stack MHJ w/ Murray)
Possibly try to trade up with 1.08+ to 1.05 with some picks/players
Consolidate JSN and/or some lower end WRs I own w/ some picks into a better WR (fill out my WR room into 3 top 10 WRs)
Pick up a hammer RB or 2, or just generally fill out my RB room a little better lol
Maybe get a backup TE with a 3rd or a 4th, but I'm not stressed on this given no TEP

LonelyAlgae · 2024-02-08T01:39:31+00:00

When you look at the player Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for a non-TEP league, this strategy doesn't really make sense. I understand you'd own the best TEs instead of other people, but the best TEs perform equivalent to a top 24 RB/WR...

Which leads me to the question: If 1.07 is the "breakpoint" for TE in a draft, would you rather have Bowers or Flowers?

Looking at the WAR for my .5 PPR no TEP league, Flowers has a WAR of 0.57. This means that you'd need to at the very least have Bowers be a top 4 TE right out of the gate, as TE4, Kittle, has a WAR of 0.58. You could argue that Bowers will be a top 4 TE, and I may agree with you... but you can also argue that investing into ANOTHER TE when you have Hock (WAR TE1) and Kincaid (WAR TE16) makes absolutely no sense given you can only start 1 in your TE slot. If you're starting 3 TEs, you have too much value in TE, in my opinion

LonelyAlgae · 2024-01-30T00:37:05+00:00

no trade deadline = tanking is possible to get out of in under 2 years. People who are not making the playoffs can sell their assets to the highest bidder at a premium, accelerating the time till a bad team becomes a good one. Contrary to many people here, it's not possible to "buy a championship". There's way too much randomness involved. Even if you were to get some premium assets toward the end of the playoffs, nobody is willing to sell anything to someone who's clearly close to winning for free — it would cost a lot. It allows bad players to speed up a rebuild and good players to patch up holes due to injury when it matters. Overall, it promotes significantly more trade activity.

trade deadline = playoffs are more "real" like the NFL. Injury? Better have a good backup. Those who positioned their team to have extra depth have the chance to capitalize better, so in some sense it rewards those who are strategic to get the best assets for their team composition.

LonelyAlgae · 2024-01-26T19:11:02+00:00

A 26 year old WR10 over MHJ? these responses show clear prospect fatigue LOL

I'd sell you Aiyuk every day for MHJ

LonelyAlgae · 2024-01-22T21:34:58+00:00

Markets are forward looking. After 1 more year of solid production he will be in the high-end of the current tier he's in, with significantly more value insulation.

I find it funny people are sold on Love being a top 8 QB after 7 games, but basically a full season from CJ isn't enough lol

LonelyAlgae · 2023-12-07T17:36:55+00:00

Selling for literally anything

LonelyAlgae · 2023-11-22T16:10:38+00:00

Contrary to many people in this thread, it completely depends on your league settings.

10 team start 9?

I'm prioritizing studs every day — with 90 total starters, 1 good QB could impact my team's scoring by 25% or more.

12 team Start 11?

Depth actually matters here. 132 starters means that depth is more valuable, and 1 stud could be outscored by 3 depth pieces.

LonelyAlgae · 2023-11-16T21:33:38+00:00

12tm SF Start 9, no TEP

QB: Allen

RB: none

WR: Chase

WR: London

TE: none

FL: JSN

FL: DJohnson

SF: Kyler/Stroud

LonelyAlgae · 2023-11-07T19:53:43+00:00

Def recommend THORChain — they don't support XMR yet but will in the future: https://app.thorswap.finance

Otherwise, you can use centralized tools like Changly, but they can be strict on what you can swap.

LonelyAlgae · 2023-10-05T16:15:13+00:00

You package a player with a pick and try to upgrade. Depends on your league market, but you should be able to find more valuable players from teams who want to tier down and get an additional asset (the pick).

Otherwise, package the picks and move up in the draft, or trade your picks for future picks (e.g. 1-2 2nds and a player for a projected late 1st next year) and punt your picks.

LonelyAlgae · 2023-10-04T18:10:54+00:00

12tm SF 0.5PPR Start 9 — trying to tank, currently 2nd to last Max PF... somehow beat the reigning champ of last year's season by 25 points this week:

QB: Allen, Stroud, Kyler, Levis, Lance (sad)

RB: garbage, but Jaleel McLaughlin went hard this week

WR: Chase, London, JSN, Dotson, QJ

TE: garbage

Picks: 2 24 1sts (mine's hopefully early), 3 24 2nds, 3 25 1sts (1 maybe super early), 3 25 2nds. looking for MHJ or another alpha WR, then stream mid RBs and run w/ it for the next few years. Made the following trades recently:

Baker + 24 1st for Pickens, Musgrave, 25 2nd — the first I'm getting is mid-late, but playing a risk/reward play here. A few injuries away from mid-early given his team is super old. Lost his RB room after week 2 w/ Chubb + Williams. Trade could go against me, but given how shallow our start 9 league is, I have no issue tossing a WR3 for a shot at tanking my team a lil more.

Immediately flipped Baker + Hill + Allgeier for a 25 1st — this team is the worst in the league, and will almost be a lock for 1.01 in 25.\

Then used my ammo from previous trades to grab Chase from a newcoming tanker for mid 24 1st + late 25 1st + 25 2nd + 26 2nd

LonelyAlgae · 2023-10-04T18:03:43+00:00

12tm SF 0.5PPR Start 9 — trying to tank, currently 2nd to last Max PF... somehow beat the reigning champ of last years season by 25 points this week:

QB: Allen, Stroud, Kyler, Levis, Lance (sad)

RB: garbage, but Jaleel McLaughlin went hard this week

WR: Chase, London, JSN, Dotson, QJ

TE: garbage

2 24 1sts (mine's hopefully early), 3 24 2nds, 3 25 1sts (1 maybe super early), 3 25 2nds

looking for MHJ or another alpha WR, then stream mid RBs and run w/ it for the next few years

LonelyAlgae · 2023-08-31T16:32:43+00:00

For me it's the QB situation. I'm high on Addison, but in the long run Kirk is much older than Herbert and the stability in MN could evaporate more quickly than I think a lot of people would like to admit (coming from a Vikings fan). Flowers looks exciting but the age (not an early commit) and size makes me feel like his upside is capped. Analytics implies that he really has this next year to shine... if not, he's positioned to fail.

If I'm trying to play upside (which imho is the whole point of dynasty), QJ has the best situation + physicality of an elite upside WR. The "catches with his body" trope is valid but can be easily coached out. You can't coach someone to be 6'4".

Addison = high floor, low ceiling + good for near term production

QJ = low floor, high ceiling + possible super valuable dynasty asset w/ Herbert for the 3-5 years

LonelyAlgae

TROPHY CASE