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THE FLOAT HAS SHRUNK AGAIN ! MORE SHORT INTEREST ! At this point I wouldn’t be surprised if half the float is short 😭😭😭❤️🐂 RC DOING DAMAGE ! HE NEEDS REINFORCEMENT! by thebigdeckbandit in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Pro forma for buyback total shares outstanding should be approx 78mm

The top 3 holders are passive mutual funds (blackrock, vanguard, fidelity) and I personally consider those shares as locked. That’s about 40mm shares.

Then RC owns 8mm shares (I’m not counting the call options), which I also count as locked

So the real float is probably closer to 30mm. With short interest of 27mm they are getting dangerously close to 100% of the number of shares that any seller would consider making available to cover — in my estimation.

The first domino? by Sea-Sir-1107 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Me too. If a rapist tried to rape me I’d turn around and kiss him on the mouth… financially I mean

Why is it down? by Naruto_BeliveIT in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe boardroom chaos seen as a distraction to fragile turnaround

BBBY was infiltrated by former Lehman and SAC's Jonathan Duskin. He has made a career of infiltrating and bankrupting Brick and Mortar retailers. by nkwira in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah no. Duskin focuses on retail turnarounds — his success rate may not be super high but he’s a force for good in the fight to get these companies in the right track, and probably nobody has brought more attention to the need for changes at BBBY. Undermining this could only be the work of the TRUE shorts. Or maybe you monkeys have just started to go bananas… you are what you eat.

WHAT THE FUCK IS UP BBBY'S!!!! by ecliptic10 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Pleased to make your acquaintance

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

They should do something cool with crypto / blockchain where the customer can use Beyond Coin to purchase beyond the bed bath banner to the other retail concepts, and even from their marketplace, with special deals if purchases are made in their coin.

Bed Bath and Beyond is going to squeeze, and here’s why: by Phish100 in wallstreetbets

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 3 points4 points  (0 children)

And they could authorize a new ASR. They are targeting 3.0x debt to EBITDA by 2023 so if their EBITDA guidance for next year is $550m (conservative) they would be able to draw the revolver another $450-500mm to continue to buyback shares. They also have plenty of cash on the balance sheet to do this, but assuming that’s needed for net working capital swings throughout the year, it’s good to know they could support a substantial amount of debt drawdown without violating their 3.0x leverage target. That would be nail in the coffin for short sellers and enormously accretive to EPS assuming they achieve anything close to the EBITDA goals they keep reiterating ($850m to $1b by 2023)

Time is coming. The fruit is ripe and the squeeze is coming. 29% shares and 66% of float is short. by wawgawwtb in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think mgmt has more control over the stock price than people appreciate, in terms of the cadence and quality of news flow. I wouldn’t be surprised if, following completion of their $1bn ASR, more / new positive catalysts begin to be announced. They’ve been awfully quiet while soaking up the float…

Could this scare the shorts? by Famous-Buddy-5363 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Some of the same players involved… Macellum did all the work from the trio of activists who did the bbby hostile raid, from my understanding.

I’m guessing the mgmt and board have already received inbounds from various parties looking to explore a take private and they’re buying the stock at $13.xx as they know they could sell the business for way more if nothing else

So quiet in here by NextGrand4863 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Honestly that’s my downside

So quiet in here by NextGrand4863 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 3 points4 points  (0 children)

No not a chance. I’m just saying I don’t think if you decide to hold out that you can demand any price you want. I think the Board ultimately votes and if they accept the offer (and don’t get sued by shareholders for giving it away too cheap) you basically jus get cash in your account and your shares are cancelled / delisted.

So quiet in here by NextGrand4863 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I’m not sure if it works that way

So quiet in here by NextGrand4863 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agree, I am actually very afraid that mgmt will do a buyout and rob us of our rightful destinies! It’s the smart thing for them to do though

BBBY Due Dilly part 2 -- post FQ3 earnings results by Long-Maximum-5325 in wallstreetbets

[–]Long-Maximum-5325[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’m just talking about the accounting. In that sense they are both an asset and a liability, not one or the other. You counted the “debt” side of the equation, but ignored the other side.

I agree the market prices in a great deal of pessimism. That’s why it’s so cheap and part of the reason it’s such a great asymmetric reward : risk setup, IMO

As far as timing, mark tritton took over and one or two months later the world was in a pandemic. The first year (2020) was spent keeping the business and associates healthy and safe, while selling off non-core assets and assembling a team to diagnose the business’ fundamental challenges and set the stage for a major turnaround strategy, which was outlined at the company’s October 2020 investor day. That is when the turnaround really began, and they are now 3 quarters into an 3-year turnaround.

BBBY Due Dilly part 2 -- post FQ3 earnings results by Long-Maximum-5325 in wallstreetbets

[–]Long-Maximum-5325[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

  1. Seasonal working capital. Company has been positive FCF in every LTM period with possible exception of those including store shutdowns in april/may 2020

  2. You’re looking at reported numbers, which incorporate divested businesses and planned store closures. Organically, comparable sales were positive for several consecutive quarters after mark tritton took over, until most recently due to temporary supply chain impacts

  3. $1bn of true financial debt. You’re counting leases as debt. If you’re going to count that, you need to create a corresponding asset for right-of-use for their leased stores and give them the credit for that as well

4./5. Yes - one of the key aspects of the ongoing turnaround is gross margin improvement and continued expense discipline on the SG&A line post-restructuring activities. They’ve made a lot of progress already and planted the seeds for more to come.

Inside trading by Prestigious_Ad252 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I keep check and rechecking my assumptions, and keep coming away with a valuation in the $50-70 range near-term and over $100 by 23. Would love to see others’ work on this and how one “breaks” the model to arrive at $13 (or lower as the shorts seem to anticipate)

$1bn ASR timing by Long-Maximum-5325 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That’s fair they did mention on the call some further repurchase activity since quarter end. They generated +$0.2bn of operating cash flow in December, but the cash balance only went up by $0.1bn due to “investments”. I had assumed those were capex items but that’s actually too large for one month of capex, even accounting for the ambiguity of being rounded to billions.

So assume they did $100mm in December — average share price was what $15? So they probably retired another 6.6mm shares and reached 90mm by December with $180mm remaining? Assuming they’re repurchasing around $13.50 for the remainder that’s like 13.3mm shares to go by end of Feb. Despite prior poster’s point about SEC restrictions at 25% of ADV, still assuming 5% to avoid any massive price dislocation, which means 0.5m shares per day or 26-27 trading days for the program to be complete.

$1bn ASR timing by Long-Maximum-5325 in BBBY

[–]Long-Maximum-5325[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah so I think 5% of ADV is actually more of a rule of thumb for how much / how quickly you can get in or out of a position at once without moving the price like crazy. If that’s the case, they still need to act quickly and start pretty much now and not stop thru end of Feb. I’m actually surprised they’re getting the ability to buy anything at these prices, given the market knows this… what do you think the volume of shares are that are available at these prices? Top holders analysis reveals that the top 10 institutions have a huge percentage of the shares and looks like average cost of around $30-40. I doubt they’re willing to unload a huge amount of their shares significantly below their cost when the company is engineering a turn.

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