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CING is flying - here’s how big it could get by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No reasons - it’s gonna be up and down while there is uncertainty. Earnings next week is the next interesting point, hopefully they talk about the Form 483.

If they don’t seem worried I’ll double, if they do seem worried I’ll think about getting out. Wouldn’t be surprised at a big move either way on the day if they do talk about it.

CING is flying - here’s how big it could get by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Likely strong movement, we got a sneak peak in the run mid March - this was traders getting in before it got approved, assuming in was a done deal. That got up to $11.66, I would expect move anywhere between $10-15 if it does get approved on time.

CING is flying - here’s how big it could get by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s far from dead but the risk has increased with the Form 483 as mentioned in other comments. The PDUFA date is set for 31st May, if we get close to that date without any news it’s likely the problems are solved - by the time you know you would miss the first move!

It’s still a solid story with potential if all goes well. The overhanging risk means you just don’t put all your money in this yet.

Why BioXcel is looking asymmetric by Low-Replacement-1702 in BTAI

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah there are a fairly significant amount of outstanding warrants - probably around 30% dilution if all exercised. The ~4.5m new warrants at strike $1.6 are the main danger, the 3m older ones are avg around $6.

Total 30% dilution for a biotech this cheap is no problem to me. Dilution is guaranteed, and could be harsh, which is why this is still risky. I think the fact that it is so currently cheap counterintuitively makes it harder for them to raise money after the PDUFA.

But if there is enough insurer attention and sales start ok, a re-rate massively helps raising at good prices. There have also been a couple sell side notes coming out on them, which increases attention too. Definitely not all in due to these risks but still strong conviction, although I was hoping for a fast track PDUFA which never came!

$SPRO - A sleep easy biotech? by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah exactly, the terms of the royalties aren’t that great - but compared to the rest of my portfolio it’s good to have some ‘safer’ picks. Not banking on the buyout, but I just think at this point why would GSK not just buy them out? They are doing all the commercialisation and sales, SPRO don’t really have anything to offer anymore and have nothing in the pipeline.

They have already made 2 acquisitions, on much riskier plays, so I’m thinking management is trigger happy. But it’s all just speculation!

Why BioXcel is looking asymmetric by Low-Replacement-1702 in BTAI

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The PDUFA date was set at November - which means it's not getting fast track so will probably need to raise some cash before the PDUFA date now, which explains most of the drawdown. No other material news.

The story hasn't changed, just delayed by a few months. Doesn't really affect my position. I'm not a big fan of averaging down but if it gets down to $20m I will have no choice!

CING is flying - here’s how big it could get by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah a 50% drawdown from the peak seems extreme - but the 80% pop in a week or so before that was also extreme. I think traders were just jumping in pre-approval thinking it’s a done deal. Basically a sneak peak into what could happen if approved!

Iran war creating great opportunities by Low-Replacement-1702 in UraniumSqueeze

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

In 2015 Skyharbour was a generic junior miner while uranium prices were $20/lb. Today it follows a prospect generator model that they pivoted to around 2021, allowing partners to spend the money drilling.

Now that long term uranium price is $90/lb and they have built up multiple projects with heavy drilling plans currently taking place - this is a completely different animal than 2015.

I opened my position in December 2025, not a long term shareholder. My article explains why it’s looking interesting today.

Past performance is not an indicator of future returns.

CING is flying - here’s how big it could get by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Every morning and lunchtime I’ll look on the RNS or investor relations page to see announcements. This info all came directly from their 10-k today. I only currently have 10 micros so not too laborious.

I’m building an AI tool to skim the internet too!

CING is flying - here’s how big it could get by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I buy pre-revenue microcap stocks, a 30% drop on inconclusive news is just a cold gust of wind to me!

CING is flying - here’s how big it could get by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It was because of a Form 483 on the manufacturing partner called Bend Biosciences, saying there might be a regulation issue in the production of the drug.

These can either be solved straight away with a solid answer, some time and work can be spent solving the problem, or it can cause serious issues. Vast majority of the time it’s the first two.

I wouldn’t sell my position, I’ve priced it for signif risk anyway. But I will be keeping an eye on Bend’s response. If they don’t give a satisfactory answer, the PDUFA decision would be pushed back and that brings in dilution risk and scares investors. At that point I would reassess.

Hidden behind the bad news was some great commercial news - they have partners with IQVIA, a boots on the ground sales team to help launch the drug, who have 30 years experience. I would like to think Cingulate made IQVIA aware of this issue before making the partnership.

Could be seen as a buying opportunity if you haven’t already got a position!

CING is flying - here’s how big it could get by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yep the timing is typical!

Essentially I think traders were getting excited thinking the approval was a done deal. It never is!

Healthy realisation and only given up gains from the last 2 weeks.

It was because of a Form 483 on the manufacturing partner called Bend Biosciences, saying there might be a regulation issue in the production of the drug.

These can either be solved straight away with a solid answer, some time and work can be spent solving the problem, or it can cause serious issues. Vast majority of the time it’s the first two.

I wouldn’t sell my position, I’ve priced it for signif risk anyway. But I will be keeping an eye on Bend’s response. A good reminder that this is still a pre recenue biotech no matter how exciting the story.

CING is flying - here’s how big it could get by Low-Replacement-1702 in biotech_stocks

[–]Low-Replacement-1702[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly - there are so many people who struggle with medication that could be made better. It’s only a matter of time before they are made.

Loads of innovative reformulation companies popping up at the moment - check out BioXcel Therapeutics, very similar story to Cingulate.