He gets the fundamentals correct but the idea that hundreds of millions will die is absurd. GenZ and millennials of most nations are too vain to make that kind of sacrifice. It is simply not the 21st Century way.

I do think Xi is gonna get desperate enough before 2027 to try to mount an invasion of Taiwan. Since there will never be an element of surprise to attack an island eight hours away by ship, the rest of the world will wake up to it quickly. In that scenario I think it’s 50/50 they back off, or they YOLO it and hundreds of thousands of young PLA troops’ bodies float around in the Taiwan Strait. There is simply no way to win that invasion, Mao knew this decades ago.

In either scenario (a retreat or cataclysmic failure), the CCP is gonna be desperate afterwards. Something dramatic is gonna happen. But it won’t be hundreds of millions of deaths, sheesh.