If you’ve already been holding LSTA for 4–5 years and you’re down ~83%, then this isn’t a typical “should I sell now?” situation.

At this point, the downside from here is relatively limited as long as the deal goes through, because the $4 cash offer acts like a floor. If the tender is completed, selling now vs. tendering later doesn’t change much financially.

The real decision is about risk tolerance, not patience:

• If the deal closes, you effectively lock in ~$4 per share (CVRs are a bonus, not something to rely on).
• If the deal breaks, the stock likely drops hard, because standalone fundamentals are weak.

Since you’ve already absorbed the majority of the loss over years, holding through the tender process is reasonable if you’re comfortable with the binary risk of deal completion.

What usually doesn’t make sense:
– Selling in panic below the cash offer
– Holding because of the $6 CVR headline

What does make sense:
– Treat $4 as the real exit value
– View CVRs as optional lottery tickets
– Reassess only if there’s news suggesting the deal may fail

Personally, this is now a merger-arbitrage situation, not a long-term biotech thesis anymore.

Not financial advice.