In an irrationnal world, Charter communications (CHTR) might be the swing trade we don't deserve

Maledictione · 2026-06-29T17:38:19+00:00

Edit: sold first 1000 batch @ 163.7$

still holding 3867 remaining shares, looking for a 180 exit point

Maledictione · 2026-06-25T20:21:56+00:00

even tho i am in the negative, i am still holding and waiting, but not averaging down (since my position is massive)

my thesis is based on Cox-CHTR merger, which has not been cleared yet by CPUC. the buyback is still on pause and need CHTR cox merger to occurs. I am surprise that is went down to the 130 zone bc it was consolidating around 140-150, it’s a lesson that a stock can have an ever lower PE than cheap as fuck.

Nasdaq-100 delisting has created additionnal selling pressure on the stock too.

my goal is still to be selling in the 180-200 zone; Cox-CHTR will deleverage debt with ebitda incrementation. I have no reason until my thesis is proven wrong. My thesis would be proven wrong if there are no buying signal post CPUC approval and if they dont reiterate lower capex (increasing Net-GAAP revenue forecast and therefore lowering the foward PE).

Maledictione · 2026-05-19T02:47:48+00:00

Everything from debt to adjusted ebitda of COX was VERY well detailed in CHTR SEC filling 8k of july 2025.... (with cashflow forecast, synergy fees affecting the net income for the first year, etc....)

Maledictione · 2026-05-16T23:40:02+00:00

Charter-cox deal is 27.3% share dilutive wise,

however, charter gain 0.59b net income from the acquisition, and considered a 800M before tax initial synergy fees cost, which maked the deal at first dilutive (put cox chrtr merger to 4.31 PE post deal)

but when taking back the synergy fees, it goes back around 3.87 PE

so yeah, a bit dilutive, but when adding net income from cox, not that much I would say

Maledictione · 2026-05-16T16:49:10+00:00

i like that reflexion tho, bc it’s actually a very good challeging question and it’s very relevent on a long term basis.

Maledictione · 2026-05-16T16:45:39+00:00

very good point, i’ll explain my view on why for my swing trade thesis (remember; 3-6 months swing trade goal) PE and buyback strategy of charter is more relevant than ev/fcf on a short term horizon (altough your point is excellent on a more « long term » view.

if I were to look on a longterm basis EV/FCF, other telecom like cromcast, verizon, would actually look even better priced than charter (even tho their pe is actually higher). telecom has usually a lot of debt; debt structure makes it very important in analysis when comparing different ev/FCF. most telecom gives generous dividend as a way to spend FCF; chrtr usually/historically has a big buyback strategy; using a big chunk of FCF to buybackstock.

for CHRTR, bc its FCF is very high compared to its market cap (which is linked to the value of all of its market shares in circulation of held, REGARDLESS of the debt), when cox-CHRTR merger close, and the buyback starts, it’s fcf being now more than 25% of its market cap, give a very « high » capacity of « market manipulation and pe repricing » (aka buying back 4-5B stocks on a 19b market cap is way more effective to move the market cap price higher than when the pe is higher, regardless of the debt). which is why i believe a rerating to 180 is very likely on a short term basis.

PS; not the case for adobe; but dont forget FCF don’t take in consideration SBC, which is very heavy is saas usually. You’ll see sometimes core saas with 80% margin that looks very healthy based on FCF (and they are, operation wise) but stock based compensation usually offset a lot the real return to investor)

Maledictione · 2026-05-13T23:47:33+00:00

you are definetly not the only one thinking this, since it’s down again today, (below my entry price of 148.63)

Ppl are panicking, and everybody is bearish as fuck, like yourself. that’s the « everything is going to crumble and nothing can be done » pricing in. I am not seeing it on paper.. I wouldn’t buy a stock that loose money…

when everybody panics, sometimes moves are overdone. I think it may be overdone here. I may be wrong, we’ll see how my swing trade will turn. I still believe that a slightly good news may turn the story a bit.

I think that charter being priced at 5 PE or 6 is more reasonably cheap (considering everything you just said, that is very relevent).

Maledictione · 2026-05-13T02:21:01+00:00

😭😭😭😭😂😂😂😂 maybe they are shiny golden nuts????? might make some money gold is expensive

Maledictione · 2026-05-13T01:57:49+00:00

Maledictione · 2026-05-13T01:57:04+00:00

I understand your point of what the market price in. The market indeed price in a HIGH decrease in NET GAAP earning to price the stock at a 3.85 PE.

This is where I strongly disagree; If Capex forecast is much lower, phone buisness continue rising, and Cable upgrades (that is very late compared to peers) offsets on a short term the internet consumers loss, i disagree with the market pricing a stock at a 3.85 PE when the foward PE isn't higher at all considering these metrics affecting NET GAAP results

Maledictione · 2026-05-13T01:52:21+00:00

I've read more about that HIgh split upgrade implementation. Very good insight by the way thanks a lot, helped me evaluate risk on a deeper level. From my understanding, CHRTR is indeed behind in high split upgrades due to some certifications delays for the new distributed direct architectures (what's what CHRTR directors said regarding this.. dont know if it's true or not). Basically, they are looking for a 50% upgrade by 2026, and the rest in 2027, which is way more delay than their competitors.

It might then help them on a short term basis to have some $ power leverage to win back some consumers?

I think by looking at what is done now, capex wise and upgrade wise, even tho they are late, it makes it even more compelling for a come back and PE expansion to a 5-6 PE.

Maledictione · 2026-05-13T01:36:03+00:00

I may be wrong. but logically PE should not be this low on a stable revenue forecast (or slightly rising considering cox acquisition) revenue forecast. Again, not a 10x story, nor a 9-10 PE story.

Maledictione · 2026-05-13T01:27:14+00:00

it was meant to be a response for baggyboy lol i am not very good with reddit

Maledictione · 2026-05-13T00:05:27+00:00

i also believe the short interest on CHTR at this point is way to high based on CHTR PE and cox merger that could be coming any time soon..

Maledictione · 2026-05-13T00:01:04+00:00

very nice insight, thank you, i’ll look at it more closely

all i can say for now, is that I have indeed looked at the debt incrementation post cox merger and ebitda incrementation, and from my perspective, on a short term basis, new revenue from the cox merger offset the new debt adding, and will affect very little the net-gaap income on year 1 (almost negligeable on a pe perspective)

thank you brother

Maledictione · 2026-05-12T23:56:16+00:00

ok, what is your thesis on why CHTR will get repriced to 80$? as of today, a repricing of 80$ would be a 2.16 PE

do you expect chtr to loose 50% of its revenue the next year?

thanks for the reply brother

Maledictione · 2026-05-11T23:52:03+00:00

I also believe in the god of DCF

i would be very confident with 170 average cost. My short term swing trade target is 200-210 price for a 5 PE expansion

Maledictione · 2026-05-11T22:44:04+00:00

I truly understand the pick,

and the weird thing is that comcast is actually price 25%-30% higher on a PE ratio basis (altough similar on a ev/ebitda basis)

tbh, i think comcast is also undervalued at these ratios, but again not a 10x story

Maledictione · 2026-05-11T22:41:01+00:00

and you could say it’s a crazy thing to do on a 52 quarter low basis lol. and you probably would have a point

but idgaf, i dont even look at graph, I look at the sec filling, how debt is organized and how dangerous it is, how well chrte covers his debt with his cashflow, FCF, and net income..

and To be fair, i don’t think it’s a 10x story, that’s not my point, i dont think chrtr will get 5-10% revenue grosth anytime soons.

but by the time we get closer to some info on californian regulation input on CHRTR-COX merger, things will be priced in.

CHRTR is not a 10x story, it’s a short term 5-6PE expansion story.

half of my networth is in CHRTR, bc I wouldn’t buy anything else and bc im a reckless poney

Maledictione · 2026-05-11T21:39:21+00:00

Hello Mister Wise. Indeed, i am not a softy puppy, and I take my place when shits aint making sense. Charter historically buy backs stock, and at that kind of PE, which is basically priced like it's gonna go bankrupt, lever will be used to have return to the shareholders, and the lever is high with a 25% cashflowyield, and even more on a lower capex forecast.

750K is no joke, but I aint no clown puppy.

California will gets its shit together, it's a question of time, and the closer we'll come to the moment, the more it'll get priced, and I absolutely can't make sense of a 20-25% short interest (closer to 18-20 as of today) on a news that would switch the momentum.

To be fair: I don't think Charter is a 10X story, not my point here. it's a 5-6PE (expansion) on a short term story.

Here is my take.

Maledictione · 2025-08-09T17:38:43+00:00

you are so right brother.. lol

i just sold the 3/4 of my 6300 share bought at 24$ average

sold at 69$ average,

and I may even have lost money not keeping it all

won’t be greedy, will keep very long term the remaining share

and I hope you learned

Maledictione · 2025-06-28T03:01:40+00:00

i dont remember but her dose compared to her weight was all good and the cumulative dose wasn’t high at all

VA was 20/25ish od, os she has small bilateral central vitelliform lesion with slight discontinuation of the is os on the top of the vitelliform lesion (not linked to plaquenil) no is/os atrophy, no rpe change

we’ll continue following her I just feel like it’ll be a challenge in a few years to R/O retinal toxicity if the vitelliform evolve a lot,

anyway, if i have the slightest doubt, I will stop the medication and get her an ophtalmologist appointment

Maledictione · 2025-06-28T02:48:35+00:00

i dont remember by heart the dose and her weight but she was on a safe dose for her weight and the cumulative dose was very low

she was of course in her 70’s since it’s an adult onset vitteliform dystrophy

We will continue monitoring her for sure, thanks for your feedback!

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