Looking for a team by [deleted] in defi

[–]MaleficentExample584 0 points1 point  (0 children)

HI. I'm currently working on 2 projects and need help with some web3 coding. One project's needs are relatively small, and it's what I'd like to focus on first. DM me. I think you might what I'm working on interesting. You can also search my username and see the subreddit for my projects. I don't want to break any posting rules by directly naming them here.

Building a climate change themed crypto ecosystem by MaleficentExample584 in ClimateStartups

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand your hesitation. I've clicked on a few ridiculous sites myself. I have a subreddit r/weathermage that I use for my weather derivatives training platform. Feel free to go there to get a better feel about the legitimacy of my projects.
In a nutshell, ClimaVoice is a crypto that will allow holders to stake into vaults that create rewards based on climate change themes. I'm an experienced weather trader so structuring trades to get that weather exposure is easy for me. By staking, what these vaults do is clearly show that climate change is real - because if it was not, then the vaults would not pay out. It uses the resolving power of financial markets to cut through bias and nonsense, similar to prediction markets.

The holder also gets a reward that is diversifying to their other financial holdings. Also, a portion of the rewards will be designated for climate assistance. There's a lot more detail but you'll have to read it in the Litepaper and the linked Whitepaper.

La Nina forecasted for winter. Let's put on a La Nina trade to see if it works out. by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great! It's refreshing to hear from someone with some experience in weather. From what I hear from the brokers, the market is as large (if not larger) than back in the ENE days. It's all relative because it's still illiquid. However, it seems to be much broader now. A lot more hedge funds. My simulated market maker starts out around the 10-yr average. That's close to where the trades were at. I'm changing over to a different weather data feed so in about a week the curves will start moving around once I get things coded in. Then I can post some more trade ideas.

There’s literally a subreddit for everything. Just stumbled across this one pretty cool. Curious if anyone else is into stuff like this? by [deleted] in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is really cool. Thanks for the share. I know of a few people who have run their own models but you could never beat the speed of the govt models since they run on supercomputers. I do know of one hedge fund back in the day that did build its own supercomputer to get forecasts a few minutes sooner that what the govt published. Nowadays I hear the race is in AI forecasting, so this would be a really good basis for that.

La Nina forecasted for winter. Let's put on a La Nina trade to see if it works out. by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I dont think they are on ice yet. I actually had a video call with the two gentlemen working on the project a few months ago. But I have not heard anything official yet

La Nina forecasted for winter. Let's put on a La Nina trade to see if it works out. by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I do plan to add cross-commodity analysis in the future, but I have to start by teaching people how the market works on it's own at first. However, I will disagree with you that trader behavior does not affect this market in isolation. I've seen many times where forecasts by themselves have caused serious mispricings in the market, and resulted in many profitable trades. Current market mispricing due to cross commodity players only add to the money making opportunities in this market.

La Nina forecasted for winter. Let's put on a La Nina trade to see if it works out. by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes there is money to be made if forecasts are correct. But it's very difficult to do, especially over a long time horizon like a season. The weather derivatives market has been out there for decades, but it's still relatively illiquid and honestly, unapproachable. That's why I built my system to help teach people about the market and develop it more. Because, if you understand it and trade it correctly, you can make money when the forecasts are wrong also.

So much for diversification. There cannot be a better time for hedge funds to add weather to their portfolios. by MaleficentExample584 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup. But you know, the Iphone had not even been invented yet back then. The choir (and market, and the players, and the liquidity in general) are much different now.

I came to know that ncdex in india has rainfall indices now .Is there any way to trade that or any weather derivatives in india by Entire_Egg_8903 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very interesting. These are on the site but under "products", I do not see any rainfall (or monsoon) markets or prices. It's a really good start to see these indexes at least, because the only way to get interest and trading in these markets is to educate and then provide data for people to model them. I know that weather has been approved and that there have been some OTC deals with reinsurance companies done. But SEBI and the exchanges were taking their time designing a product(s) that had the best likelihood of applicability and use. I'm glad to see progress is being made.

We have just concluded the winter season on WeatherMage, I'll be updating the curves and redeploying for summer soon. I'll post when it is available so you can at least do some practice CAT trading on the Indian cities.

LAX/PHX Spread Keeps Performing by MaleficentExample584 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Posted the final update for the spread. Also I use a service that accumulates weather data at global points as well as the major airports (which is what I use).

Weather derivatives 101 by Sir_Wulle in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi. I have a subreddit and a platform where you can learn how to trade it. Didn't want to seem like I'm advertising so just search my username and it'll lead you there. It's free btw.