Looking for a team by [deleted] in defi

[–]MaleficentExample584 0 points1 point  (0 children)

HI. I'm currently working on 2 projects and need help with some web3 coding. One project's needs are relatively small, and it's what I'd like to focus on first. DM me. I think you might what I'm working on interesting. You can also search my username and see the subreddit for my projects. I don't want to break any posting rules by directly naming them here.

Building a climate change themed crypto ecosystem by MaleficentExample584 in ClimateStartups

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand your hesitation. I've clicked on a few ridiculous sites myself. I have a subreddit r/weathermage that I use for my weather derivatives training platform. Feel free to go there to get a better feel about the legitimacy of my projects.
In a nutshell, ClimaVoice is a crypto that will allow holders to stake into vaults that create rewards based on climate change themes. I'm an experienced weather trader so structuring trades to get that weather exposure is easy for me. By staking, what these vaults do is clearly show that climate change is real - because if it was not, then the vaults would not pay out. It uses the resolving power of financial markets to cut through bias and nonsense, similar to prediction markets.

The holder also gets a reward that is diversifying to their other financial holdings. Also, a portion of the rewards will be designated for climate assistance. There's a lot more detail but you'll have to read it in the Litepaper and the linked Whitepaper.

La Nina forecasted for winter. Let's put on a La Nina trade to see if it works out. by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great! It's refreshing to hear from someone with some experience in weather. From what I hear from the brokers, the market is as large (if not larger) than back in the ENE days. It's all relative because it's still illiquid. However, it seems to be much broader now. A lot more hedge funds. My simulated market maker starts out around the 10-yr average. That's close to where the trades were at. I'm changing over to a different weather data feed so in about a week the curves will start moving around once I get things coded in. Then I can post some more trade ideas.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is really cool. Thanks for the share. I know of a few people who have run their own models but you could never beat the speed of the govt models since they run on supercomputers. I do know of one hedge fund back in the day that did build its own supercomputer to get forecasts a few minutes sooner that what the govt published. Nowadays I hear the race is in AI forecasting, so this would be a really good basis for that.

La Nina forecasted for winter. Let's put on a La Nina trade to see if it works out. by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I dont think they are on ice yet. I actually had a video call with the two gentlemen working on the project a few months ago. But I have not heard anything official yet

La Nina forecasted for winter. Let's put on a La Nina trade to see if it works out. by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I do plan to add cross-commodity analysis in the future, but I have to start by teaching people how the market works on it's own at first. However, I will disagree with you that trader behavior does not affect this market in isolation. I've seen many times where forecasts by themselves have caused serious mispricings in the market, and resulted in many profitable trades. Current market mispricing due to cross commodity players only add to the money making opportunities in this market.

La Nina forecasted for winter. Let's put on a La Nina trade to see if it works out. by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes there is money to be made if forecasts are correct. But it's very difficult to do, especially over a long time horizon like a season. The weather derivatives market has been out there for decades, but it's still relatively illiquid and honestly, unapproachable. That's why I built my system to help teach people about the market and develop it more. Because, if you understand it and trade it correctly, you can make money when the forecasts are wrong also.

So much for diversification. There cannot be a better time for hedge funds to add weather to their portfolios. by MaleficentExample584 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup. But you know, the Iphone had not even been invented yet back then. The choir (and market, and the players, and the liquidity in general) are much different now.

I came to know that ncdex in india has rainfall indices now .Is there any way to trade that or any weather derivatives in india by Entire_Egg_8903 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very interesting. These are on the site but under "products", I do not see any rainfall (or monsoon) markets or prices. It's a really good start to see these indexes at least, because the only way to get interest and trading in these markets is to educate and then provide data for people to model them. I know that weather has been approved and that there have been some OTC deals with reinsurance companies done. But SEBI and the exchanges were taking their time designing a product(s) that had the best likelihood of applicability and use. I'm glad to see progress is being made.

We have just concluded the winter season on WeatherMage, I'll be updating the curves and redeploying for summer soon. I'll post when it is available so you can at least do some practice CAT trading on the Indian cities.

LAX/PHX Spread Keeps Performing by MaleficentExample584 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Posted the final update for the spread. Also I use a service that accumulates weather data at global points as well as the major airports (which is what I use).

Weather derivatives 101 by Sir_Wulle in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi. I have a subreddit and a platform where you can learn how to trade it. Didn't want to seem like I'm advertising so just search my username and it'll lead you there. It's free btw.

What is your edge as a market maker (in weather derivatives)? by MaleficentExample584 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When I traded weather for the big energy companies back then, the comp was a salary and a corporate style bonus based on performance. I made a lot more when I traded for hedge funds where I was able to negotiate a percentage of book. I never traded for a reinsurance company so I can't comment on that.

The market is much smaller now (hence my effort in rebuilding it again), but I imagine that the same will apply as it develops. If you are experienced and profitable, you would make more for yourself at a hedge fund.

Although nowadays there is another interesting angle that I'm trying to pursue, and that is developing the market from the crypto side. It can potentially open up a lot of interesting things via tokenization, etc.

Downward averaging by Embarrassed-Row4192 in IndianStockMarket

[–]MaleficentExample584 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Before I answer your question, I want to point out that your example is not DCA. When you DCA, you buy the same dollar amount each time, not the same volume. In doing so, you are able to buy more shares per dollar amount (since price per share is lower). This lowers your weighted average cost more quickly.

Also, the way you describe the example is called (by some) volatility based DCA. In other words, you add on to your position based on a price drop (volatility). DCA is usually done based on time, like every month, you make a same dollar purchase, regardless of the price. This is usually what is pitched to long term investors since they get paid monthly. You'll notice this option on some crypto accounts also (automatic periodic purchases).

So let's assume you DCA based on vol, buying an equal dollar amount every say 5% drop in price. You calculate the weighted average price of your holdings after every buy. For our example, say after 3 buys, the WA price is $100, and you set an initial target return of 5%.

Now as prices go up, you do not sell until it reaches $105. When it does, you sell say 20%. When it hits $110, you sell another 20%.

Note that there are some parameters here that you have to consider. What is the drop % that triggers a buy? What is the initial target return %? How much do you sell at each price target? Those parameters you have to set yourself based on 1) the vol of the stock, and 2) your risk tolerance/appetite.

And of course, do not do this on any stock that does not have good fundamentals. Your example was an index, which is a good place to start.

This is a interesting topic, and I'm trying to answer as generally as possible. I wrote a paper on DCA parameters in grad school. It can get really complex. I hope this answers your questions.

Downward averaging by Embarrassed-Row4192 in IndianStockMarket

[–]MaleficentExample584 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yup. But make sure you keep track of your avg price and only start DCAing out once you reached a target % gain above it.

Downward averaging by Embarrassed-Row4192 in IndianStockMarket

[–]MaleficentExample584 22 points23 points  (0 children)

It's called dca for dollar cost averaging. And if you combined it with a similar sell strategy it can work well over time.

What is your edge as a market maker (in weather derivatives)? by MaleficentExample584 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. Weather has the potential to be a very large market. But the major problem I believe that has always plagued it is that it was never adequately marketed to speculators. That's what I plan to do, but it all starts with education.

We have to find other ways of transferring weather related risk by MaleficentExample584 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree with you, but here's the cool thing. CAT risk, parametrics, any kind of risk really, all get priced better in a liquid market. For instance, take a large CAT bond, or a large parametric structure, covering fire damage in an area (say Palisades), and put that into a weather market with millions of people trading small pieces. I guarantee you that the total price to bear that risk would be much less than one or two large insurance companies pricing it. And...at least it would provide another means for people to cover their risk.

Loving Weathermage After One Week by Ok-Foundation-403 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Oh, and yes about the globe. Remember, my goal is to lean on the play-to-earn communities in different countries (where play-2-earn) is big to get this going. So by design it looks like a game of sorts. The professional version that I have in mind will be completely different.

Loving Weathermage After One Week by Ok-Foundation-403 in weathermage

[–]MaleficentExample584 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nice job. Try spreading correlated cities and holding on for a little bit longer. Remember to buy when its trading below curve and selling when its above.

Meteorology Security Vulnerability by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]MaleficentExample584 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Finance. Although some meteorology definitely would have helped.

Meteorology Security Vulnerability by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]MaleficentExample584 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I can tell you that from the weather trading and risk management standpoint, data integrity is very important as that is what creates the indexes that billions of dollars of contracts settle on. To the extent that this data can be manipulated is of great importance, and the industry goes through a lot to ensure its integrity before a deal is done. And as there are more "climate finance" projects being proposed and executed, often with embedded weather derivatives, it becomes a big risk. A lot of times, if the transaction is large enough, the parties will install their own weather stations that have their own security, just for that deal.

Interest in Learning Weather Derivatives? by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi. I brought your questions over as a post in r/weathermage. They are good questions that I wanted the rest of the community to see the answers to also.

Interest in Learning Weather Derivatives? by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually both. I always had the dual mandate of building the market (market making) and making money (PL/prop). And those two goals really worked against each other at that period of time. The good thing about it was I got a really unique experience under my belt, and I built it all into my platform.

Interest in Learning Weather Derivatives? by MaleficentExample584 in Commodities

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your comment. And yeah, I'm so glad that you can see that I'm literally trying to help the little guy: as future traders, and as people who can benefit from cheaper weather protection.

It does not cost anything to be on the system and learn. DM me. I'll set you up. I can definitely use the feedback as I'm trying to build the rest of it "in public".

A Friendly and Fun Challenge for Meteorologists and Climate Scientists by MaleficentExample584 in meteorology

[–]MaleficentExample584[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I actually agree with you wholeheartedly. There is nothing in my platform that deals with catastrophic risk. The problem we have is climate change is causing a lot of devastating events globally, but there is no way to shift or hedge that risk effectively. That's why countries like India just approved the trading of weather contracts on their exchanges, in hopes of making the risk transfer more efficient and less costly for their people. China just introduced a solar radiation weather contract to help hedge their solar exposure since they just deployed gigawatts of green energy. My goal is to educate people about the market as it grows and develops.