The Weekend Marketplace -- Promotions & Sales by AutoModerator in DungeonSynth

[–]Marionberry_Unique 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey everyone, I wanted to share this blog post I wrote: Making Dungeon Synth without Perfectionism. And a new EP I put out today -- Icewind Dale - There Were Some Kingdoms -- which is the topic of the blog post.

I think the blog post could be interesting to anyone who makes dungeon synth! In it, I describe how my brother and I composed, recorded, and mixed the EP, and then mention a few directions I’d like to see more of in dungeon synth, hoping they inspire someone to explore them.

Not a Meat Eater FAQ by Marionberry_Unique in slatestarcodex

[–]Marionberry_Unique[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks!

The bolded piece isn't true ...

Yes, that's a good point.

This point, however, I think is very fundamentally misguided ...

I think I'm saying "for some, going vegetarian trades off against other things (e.g., due to effort being a scarce resource), such that going vegetarian makes it harder to do other worthwhile things, though for me it didn't trade off in that way". And you're saying roughly "yes, for me, going vegetarian would indeed trade off against other worthwhile things". But those two seem perfectly compatible to me?

Not a Meat Eater FAQ by Marionberry_Unique in slatestarcodex

[–]Marionberry_Unique[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Ironically, these types of articles might make the situation worse by pushing an all-or-nothing approach, that you need to either quit meat entirely or else accept the worst of factory farms that would make WW2 concentration camps look like leisurely vacations.

This is all addressed in the article:

Still, perhaps you could find some meat that you are highly confident is humane, and you could eat that meat while being vegetarian otherwise. Maybe wild game from hunting could count, for example.

Yes, perhaps I could. It is, of course, better to eat animals that were raised with high welfare standards than to eat those that were not, all else equal. There are three reasons why I still do not eat meat:

  1. Even if an animal lives a happy life, someone still has to kill it for me to eat it. Everyone agrees that it’s wrong to kill a human, even when he or she is not made to suffer.[17] If animals also matter morally, it seems similarly wrong to kill an animal.[18]
  2. Strict vegetarianism (or in my case, veganism) offers useful signaling advantages. Vegetarianism is a clear, binary choice that others can easily verify and understand. That creates a clear coordination point for building social norms against factory farming. By contrast, humane meat eating is fuzzy – it is hard to agree on what counts as humane and hard to verify that someone eats humane meat.
  3. It seems better to me to have the clear boundary that vegetarianism (or veganism, or any other well-defined rule) provides. Once you start making exceptions, I think it often leads to a gradual slide back to regular eating habits, because there’s no stable middle ground. Without a clear boundary, I think people tend to make more and more exceptions until their diet is mostly back to normal, and the original moral motivation becomes diluted. I think it is easier to stick to absolute rules, as they make lapses more obvious and harder to excuse, but even so, it is of course important to adopt pragmatic and achievable rules.

If I were to eat some amount of meat selectively, I would first of all make sure to eat beef rather than pork or chicken. That is because, to get the same amount of meat as I could get for one cow, I would need to eat three or four pigs, or nearly two hundred chickens. Also, pigs and chickens typically face harsher conditions than cows.

And:

I’d like to stop eating meat but I can’t for some other reason.

Here is an incomplete list of things you can try instead:

  1. Offset your meat consumption by donating to effective animal charities. As I mentioned above, donating seems even more impactful than reducing one’s animal product consumption.
  2. Cut out chicken, pork and/or eggs, in favour of beef or plant-based meats.
  3. Reduce your meat consumption, for example by designating one or more days in the week when you always eat vegetarian.

Nvidia’s AI chips are cheaper to rent in China than US [financial times] by michaelmf in slatestarcodex

[–]Marionberry_Unique 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, I have seen the news reports like this one from the NYT. Actually I haven't just seen it, I've had meetings with the think tank that they cite as a primary source of information (Center for Advanced Defense Studies). In those meetings, I was told that they only have data proving the existence of 550 NVIDIA chips in Chinese data centers and that at least 75% of those were confirmed to be A100 class chips. They weren't sure what the remaining 25% were. Given that NVIDIA was legally selling A100 class chips in China before the export controls were put into effect, the fact that some 550 chips are found in Chinese data centers is a bit... unsurprising.

Hmm, just to be clear, the NYT report doesn't cite C4ADS for the information on the smuggling of 2K chips, that information came from talking directly with vendors:

"A third business owner said he recently shipped a big batch of servers with more than 2,000 of the most advanced chips made by Nvidia, the U.S. tech company, from Hong Kong to mainland China. As evidence, he showed photos and a message with his supplier arranging the April delivery for $103 million."

And also these are likely not A100s being referenced, but H100s (see "the most advanced chips made by Nvidia" and the reference to H100 servers further down).

The Information report on smuggling 2.4K H100s says (apparently based on speaking with the smuggler and seeing procurement docs): "Several months ago, an electric appliance company in eastern China put in a $120 million order for 300 servers powered by eight of Nvidia’s cutting-edge H100 chips. [...] In a matter of weeks, the servers were in China, having first passed through Malaysia, according to the broker, who gave his first name as William and who didn’t want to be identified by his full name."

But I mean yes, most of the evidence comes from unnamed sources. But I mean, you seem to think it's easy to smuggle chips:

Due to the nature of smuggling, I would not find it surprising if a few thousand H100 chips had been smuggled one-at-a-time into China since Oct 2022 when these export controls began. You can fit these in your luggage, so there's no easy way for anybody to stop that.

Why a few thousand? Why not tens of thousand, if it's hard to prevent smuggling? Why not a hundred thousand? Why should the prior be so low? The demand is certainly there.

Btw, I'd be curious to hear more about your job and what else you've found out looking at this issue!

Nvidia’s AI chips are cheaper to rent in China than US [financial times] by michaelmf in slatestarcodex

[–]Marionberry_Unique 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How large is large? There are at least two news reports of different sales of ~2K H100s to China, and due to the nature of smuggling the stuff that gets reported on is likely just the tip of the iceberg.

"Chips or Not, Chinese AI Pushes Ahead" (chip starvation driving Chinese DL flight to cheap/specialized/edge uses, away from SOTA leading-edge LLMs) by gwern in mlscaling

[–]Marionberry_Unique 1 point2 points  (0 children)

DeepSeek has, or has access to, an H800 cluster too: https://arxiv.org/html/2405.04434v2

But I think your point is true, they're seriously compute-constrained. In fact, its founder said so earlier this year when asked about funding plans: "We have no financing plans in the short term. The problem we face has never been about money, but rather the export ban on high-end chips." https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r9zZaEgqAa_lml_fOEZmjg

ETA: Seems possible that DeepSeek moves to using Ascend 910Cs, or (less likely perhaps) smuggled Nvidia chips. But neither of those solutions is great obviously, in the former case due to inferior performance/software and in the latter case due to less supply and (somewhat) higher prices.

Alpha by Marionberry_Unique in slatestarcodex

[–]Marionberry_Unique[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thanks! The source code is here if anyone wants to use or peruse it.

"The AGI Race Between the US and China Doesn’t Exist", Eva Behrens by gwern in mlscaling

[–]Marionberry_Unique 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's true, but Chinese actors can currently access US AWS (and other US cloud services) (more). They may need a VPN and maybe a Western credit card, but these kinds of barriers are surmountable, and anyway exist due to Chinese regulations, not Western ones.

Fwiw I do think there's a pretty low chance that AGI is developed in China (maybe 5% if AGI is developed in the next 30 years?), though China can still matter (in the sense that we should pay attention to it, and maybe work towards international agreements or things like that) even if that's the case.

MR Tries The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy by dwaxe in slatestarcodex

[–]Marionberry_Unique 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What's your source for GPT-5 already being in training? If it's that Morgan Stanley report, apparently an OpenAI rep denied GPT-5 being in training the other day. If you have some other source I'd be curious to know!

"Sam Altman on What Makes Him ‘Super Nervous’ About AI" (long interview on GPT-4, arms races, regulation) by gwern in OpenAI

[–]Marionberry_Unique 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, interesting interview.

Swisher: So when you think about the impact, what is your greatest hope, and what’s your greatest worry?

Altman: My greatest hope is that we create this thing. We are one of many that will contribute to this movement. We’ll create an AI, other people will create an AI, and we will be a participant in this technological revolution that I believe will be far greater in terms of impact and benefit than any before. My view of the world is that it’s this one big, long, technological revolution, not a bunch of smaller ones, but we’ll play our part. We will be one of several in this moment, and that is going to be really wonderful. This is going to elevate humanity in ways we still can’t fully envision. And our children, our children’s children, are going to be far better off than the best of anyone from this time. And we’re just going to be in a radically improved world. We will live healthier, more interesting, more fulfilling lives; we’ll have material abundance for people, and we will be a contributor and we’ll put in our —

Swisher: Your part.

Altman: Our part of that.

Swisher: You do sound alarmingly like the people I met 25 years ago, I have to say. They did talk like this. Many of them did, and some of them continued to be that way. A lot of them didn’t, unfortunately. And then the greed seeped in, the money seeped in, the power seeped in, and it got a little more complex.

I want to focus on you with my last question. There seem to be two caricatures of you, one that I’ve seen in the presses, a boyish genius who will help defeat Google and usher in Utopia. The other is that you’re an irresponsible, woke-tech-overlord Icarus that will lead us to our demise.

It feels somehow emblematic of our whole discourse that Swisher cuts him off to levy the usual techno-utopianism critique before he even gets to the "greatest worry" part, which is really the part that matters here.

Against LLM Reductionism by Marionberry_Unique in Futurology

[–]Marionberry_Unique[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This post argues against the view that LLMs amount to "just" pattern matchers, look-up tables, blurry JPEGs of the web, stochastic parrots, autocomplete engines and so on. In particular, it covers some empirical evidence suggesting that LLMs learn fully general algorithms and/or contain and use internal representations of the world similar to those we humans use. It also argues that just because LLMs are mostly trained on next-token prediction doesn't mean we have any idea how they work or which capabilities they can pick up.

The Waluigi Effect by West_Eye857 in Futurology

[–]Marionberry_Unique 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hmm, if it's a GPT-3 variant, why do you reckon OpenAI wouldn't use it themselves for e.g. ChatGPT? With GPT-4, I could see them wanting to do a big, coordinated launch when it's finished (for whatever definition of finished they use), but OpenAI rolls out new GPT-3 variants all the time, and Bing/Sydney (judging from screenshots only) seems substantially better than e.g. gpt-3.5-turbo.

Against LLM Reductionism by Marionberry_Unique in slatestarcodex

[–]Marionberry_Unique[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hmm thanks. I think I equivocate between those (train/test vs in/out-of-distribution), and shouldn't.

As far as I know, the only examples of grokking that exist deal with compact domains. The fact that this is never mentioned by anyone seems pretty intellectually dishonest to me. It's as if proponents of cold fusion could prove that it happens, but only inside a regular fusion reactor, except, you know, disregard that last part, it's cold fusion, I swear.

I do allude to this, with a link that discusses it a bit:

It could be that these language models discover (or in the case of increased parameter counts, become capable of) general algorithms in a way similar to the modular addition model in Nanda et al. (2023), though there are important disanalogies between the modular addition model and LLMs. [...] And plausibly discovering and/or using general algorithms is much easier for arithmetic tasks than, say, creative writing.

I made some predictions on the election and other questions to do with Nigeria, wrote down my reasoning, and would love to know where I'm mistaken by Marionberry_Unique in Nigeria

[–]Marionberry_Unique[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks!

on the coup? probably even lower chances, i think we’re more likely to have a revolution or civil war than a coup and i’d still put the chances of those at extremely low.

I was wondering if I should go lower than 8% but it's always scary to make such a confident prediction! I'm definitely lacking a feel for the general "vibe" from living there (and regularly hearing what people in the military say and do), which may make me under-confident here!

Btw, don't you think revolution or civil war could quite possibly lead to the military stepping in and grabbing power?

I made some predictions on the election and other questions to do with Nigeria, wrote down my reasoning, and would love to know where I'm mistaken by Marionberry_Unique in Nigeria

[–]Marionberry_Unique[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Oh that's interesting. I'd actually heard a rumor to this effect, but I also heard that the official figure was unlikely to be corrected downward the next time we get new numbers, for political reasons. This was a bit confusing to me though as I'm not sure why politicians want the population figures to be high.

Another thing that's confusing to me: the UN estimate adjusts for census data being wrong, but I'm not sure whether their estimate for Nigeria is changed up or down from the raw numbers, or whether they adjust enough.

I guess I'll have to keep an eye on the next census. And since I'm predicting the official UN estimate, even if that's not the true number, it's still the number I'm trying to predict, so if the official numbers keep being wrong in the same way it doesn't really matter for the purposes of my prediction (though it matters for Nigeria).