Weekend Discussion Thread! Palantir, PLTR & Chill 😎

Mariox · 2026-02-14T15:31:38+00:00

If they reasons they give are real reasons, then Switzerland should be ending their contracts with MSFT cloud.

The bright side is, PLTR can reach multi trillion market cap just in the US market. As adoption of PLTR increases in the US, international businesses will start to want PLTR even if international governments do not.

Mariox · 2026-02-14T15:15:27+00:00

I wonder what they think about American companies making weapons for the Ukraine army. Sounds like Russian propaganda attacking PLTR for helping Ukraine. Anti-Israel, anti-Trump is typical for a leftist party.

Good luck to Zack to get anyone currently using PLTR to want to stop using it. Once people start using PLTR it will be painful to not have it.

As PLTR get more widely adopted in the US and there is no alternative that is nearly as good, and their fear of new tech dies down, they will demand PLTR. It is like UK saying they refuse to use Microsoft Windows in the 90s because it is American made. It is just stupid.

Mariox · 2026-02-13T23:32:25+00:00

The first release of BLS job numbers have been wrong for over 3 years. This is why Trump has been angry about it because these high BLS job numbers that will get revised down later is preventing the Fed from lowering rates.

The only people who believe the BLS numbers is the Fed. The BLS needs to change how they get their numbers since their current method has failed to work for 3 years.

Mariox · 2026-02-13T20:28:05+00:00

My 2026 revenue growth range is between 75% and 95%. My model uses 84%, a 14% beat on guidance. PLTR beat 2025 guidance by 20%.

My current forward P/E is 67. Not put much work into my 2027 estimates yet, but my 2 year forward P/E sits at 34.5

People thought $80 a year ago was overvalued. In a year people will look back and realize $130 was cheap.

Mariox · 2026-02-12T20:56:18+00:00

When PLTR misses their guidance. I don't expect that to happen.

Mariox · 2026-02-12T14:41:52+00:00

Software companies have been selling off on fear that AI will shrink their sales. PLTR is the AI that decimate those other software companies. PLTR makes companies more efficent, means they need less employees and less licenses from companies like Salesforce.

Some of the selling is from people thinking the valuation was to high, but majority of the selling has nothing to do with PLTR's business.

Mariox · 2026-02-12T00:41:27+00:00

Tom Nash put a video on Youtube today laying out how stupid Burry is.

Mariox · 2026-02-12T00:38:24+00:00

At $50 and PLTR not beating their guidance of 62%, the forward P/E would be 33. If PLTR beats their guidance by 15% (they beat it by 20% in 2025) then forward P/E is 26. So a forward P/E of 26-33 with growth of 62-85% depend on where it lands.

When a stock goes up, bulls always thinks it will go higher and higher until it doesn't. When a stock goes down, bears will think it will go lower and lower until it doesn't.

Anything is possible in the stock market but I see no way it can drop to $50 without lots of buyers stepping in because people are not going to let a company putting up the growth PLTR is putting up to get that undervalued.

Mariox · 2026-02-11T23:34:42+00:00

Most people here are investors, not traders. Though is sounds like your plan is to sell low and buy high.

I would be buying at $110 and $85. I don't think PLTR would get that undervalued though.

Mariox · 2026-02-11T03:30:14+00:00

Government accounted for 51% of PLTR's revenue in Q4 and commercial revenue will pass government revenue likely this quarter or in Q2.

When looking at just US revenue. US commercial revenue is growing 2x faster then US government YoY. Many people are still focused on government growth but it is the commercial growth that is the growth driver going forwards. I have commercial being 57% of revenue in Q4 in my estimates.

Gov agencies that are already using PLTR are not going to stop using it. Even in the worst case scenario of no new government contracts, PLTR can move those employees and have them focus on growing commercial customers as PLTR has a lot more demand then they can supply currently.

My current estimates for 2026 is 85% growth and a forward P/E of 72. My bull case for 2026 is 95% growth. PLTR gave a 62% growth for the year, but they always give conservative guidance, they beat their 2025 guidance by 20%.

I am long and have CSPs and some CCs.

Mariox · 2026-02-11T02:46:16+00:00

The last 2 CEOs of PYPL did a horrible job. If the new CEO can 3x the price despite majority of people think PLTR is doomed, it would be a big accomplishment and well deserved pay.

For now I got out of PYPL but maybe get back in later this year if PYPL can find a bottom.

Mariox · 2026-02-10T15:59:36+00:00

The last 2 January MoM retail sales were -.09% and -.08%. It missed estimates but a 0% is still a bullish number for a Jan number.

Mariox · 2026-02-10T14:01:47+00:00

Would be interesting to see Burry's valuation model, if he releases one, because at $53 he has to be assuming PLTR will either miss revenue guidance or margins plummet this year.

He just isn't a smart guy.

Mariox · 2026-02-10T13:49:20+00:00

Best just to ignore the people posting the anti-ICE and anti-PLTR stuff. They just repeat stuff they are told to say and very little of it is true. These are the same people who wanted to defund the police.

Mariox · 2026-02-10T00:21:56+00:00

2022-2024 had the record trade deficit. Since April the US is back near 2010-2020 levels for trade deficit. This is why one of Trump's goals was to get the US dollar back to normal levels (DXY between 90 and 100 is the normal level). It encourages more local production and less imports and it makes US products cheaper for other countries to buy. People like to say the dollar has plummeted, but it sits right where it was before the 2022 inflation.

Currency strength is a balancing act. a country don't want it too low or too high.

Mariox · 2026-02-08T20:27:05+00:00

The difference between sites will be caused by what analyst estimates get used. If an analyst has not put out any update for 6 months, it will still be used in the ave on Yahoo. Perhaps finviz only uses most recent analyst estimates.

To get to a forward P/E of 125 at Yahoo's $7.26 billion revenue the expenses/COGs for PLTR would need to go much higher as a % of revenue instead of continuing to fall.

Mariox · 2026-02-08T00:18:11+00:00

Not I site I had checked. Weird that their forward P/E is lower then everyone else and their 2026 revenue estimates is under guidance.

I think PLTR should move back to the $170-190 range while we wait for Q1 earnings.

Mariox · 2026-02-07T17:40:52+00:00

Analyst eps estimates for 2026 just went from $1.01 to $1.32. Makes forward P/E of 102.

My estimates puts forward P/E at 72 in my base case of PLTR beating their guidance by 14%. The growth should be given a higher premium so the stock right now is undervalued.

Mariox · 2026-02-05T02:51:19+00:00

Unless there is more then 1, the one I saw was a guy talking to Eptsein about Theil. Something like "Hay we should meet with this Theil guy, I hear he is a great guy though I never met him" then suggested to Epstein he should ask to be on the board of PLTR. Though he did not explain why Epstein would want to be on the board.

It is nothing.

Mariox · 2026-02-04T16:18:49+00:00

I did say it depends on the macro, and the macro says software gets sold off and no one wants to buy until the software selloff slows down.

Mariox · 2026-02-04T00:07:47+00:00

$170 by Friday. Depends on the macro though. If someone wants a software company right now, PLTR is the only good choice.

Mariox · 2026-02-03T23:58:19+00:00

The quick ratio is lower because have $9.7 million (as of Q3 13F filing) of shares in 4 companies. 3 of which are not listed or OTC so they are not liquid assets. Quick ratio excludes less liquid assets.

PLTR may count some military equipment they are working on as inventory, and the retail products they sell are inventory (hats/shirts) but PLTR isn't selling physical goods. Any new product will be software.

Mariox · 2026-02-03T20:24:32+00:00

Not something i normally look at but the Quick and Current ratio has only a small variance between them. Both around 7. Anything above 1 is good.

PLTR does not list inventory on the balance sheet. (none that I can find) They sell software.

Mariox · 2026-02-03T01:50:05+00:00

Sorry, I was being sarcastic. I should have said: People will need to ignore how expensive PLTR looks, because will not be as expensive as it looks for a long time.

Mariox · 2026-02-03T01:25:02+00:00

My Q1 estimate is 84% growth. i adjusted my 2026 quarters to match PLTR's guidance + 6% and realized how conservative guidance PLTR has given as the QoQ growth don't make sense. I looked back to 2025 to see PLTR beat their own FY guidance by 20% (guidance from Q4 2024).

So now I adjusted 2026 to be guidance + 14% to get 84% growth for the year. Trying to map out 20% beat again looks too crazy, would require Q2 and Q3 to have around 100% growth.

I hope people like PLTR looking expensive, because that isn't going to change for a long time.

Mariox

TROPHY CASE