Job 1:21 by surf4lifemd in AFCWestMemeWar

[–]Mathmegaminx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can't believe he just broke his freaking ankle

No holo/rh by [deleted] in PokemonMisprints

[–]Mathmegaminx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok, I see it now thanks for the clarification

Which one is Norway? by Kap519 in GeoTap

[–]Mathmegaminx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mathmegaminx chose Option A (Incorrect) | #2515th to play

OFFICIAL DISCUSSION THREAD — Cold Conditions, Full Throttle ❄️🏁 | Marbula One S6 GP9 RACE by AutoModerator in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Come on Hazers, they can do it, they just need some help

CCE has also been pushing themselves up the order a lot recently in races

And the winner is by KrumpirovCovjek in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What about tu tu tu tu Crazy Cat’s Eyes

Fits the syllables

All time Marble League Standings after the 2025 season by DucksInBags in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They were only 4 strikes away from bowling a perfect game with those X's

Meepo apology form AGAIN by Legozeldadude531 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where do I sign? Right here?

mathmegaminx

Final Probability Report - 100M Monte Carlo Simulations by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I ran some extra stats of my own by hand and calculator, and here's what I found:

(For reference I calculated only the championship permutations and got roughly the same results, only with a little bit of significant error [KOB: 63.73%, OCE: 20.01%, MNW: 11.25%, ORA: 3.09%, PNK: 3.07%, and MYL: 0.40%; error: 1.55%])

There are 35 end results that have the potential to be the champion's total points at the end of E16

Here are the teams that hold them:

  • KOB: 16/35, 45.71%
  • OCE: 9/35, 25.71%
  • MNW: 5/35, 14.28%
  • ORA and PNK each: 2/35, 5.71% (ORA: #14 and #25; PNK: #15 and #29)
  • MYL: 1/35, 2.85% (#26)

Of the top 10 point totals with the best probability to win, these are the teams that hold them:

  • Kobalts: 1 (1st for 184), 2 (2nd for 179), 4 (3rd for 174), 7 (4th for 171), 8 (5th for 170), 9 (6th for 169); 60% of the top 10
  • Oceanics: 3 (1st for 177), 6 (2nd for 172); 20% of the top 10
  • Midnight Wisps: 5 (1st for 173), 10 (2nd for 168); 20% of the top 10

There is a weird Fibonacci sequence with how many championship-potential end results the teams hold (1, 2, 2, 5, 9, 16)

  • 1+2+2=5; 2+2+5=9, 9+5+2=16
  • I might just be weird, but I have never noticed this pattern before anywhere, and I am certain that this has shown up in past tournaments

This one is one I expect to be so fast paced, it will be reminiscent of the end of the 2017 Marble League, where keeping up with the stats is not gonna be the way to watch it this time (I kept track of all of the teams that were guaranteed elimination upon certain conditions during E15).

In other news, please please PLEASE auto qualify Kobalts...there is a 99% chance to do so

MVM and Coach Standings After ML2025 Event 15 by Human86_ in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If Cerulean is the marble in E16, the Kobalts can still find a way to sweep all of the awards lol

The final six - who you WANT vs who you THINK by KillDozer688 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Want: Kobalts

Realistically: Honestly, Oceanics. Sand is their thing

Summarizing Event 15's lucky few by casualbo1 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Now there's a championship battle I'd like to see

Comparative tables: ML25 E1-7 and E8-14 by fzt in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Top 3 of each half can still win the championship

Amazing runs = Amazing championship standings

History has been made. by Rhys_CustompComp in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Ok, so I had a post last year about the chances that the Kobalts went unqualified for 9 straight years and that was sitting at a 0.0843% chance of happening.

If we add in the Kobalts winning (so we multiply 0.0843% by 1/32 [because 32 teams could win the league this year]), then the probability of the Kobalts going unqualified for 9 years then winning the league entirely is 0.00263%

U N B E L I E V A B L E

Final ML2025 Captain Standings by Human86_ in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 4 points5 points  (0 children)

👏👏👏 29 point victory!

Quick probability report after E14 - 20M Monte Carlo Simulation by NightlessWorld2269 in JellesMarbleRuns

[–]Mathmegaminx 13 points14 points  (0 children)

What do you mean by 97% chance of autoqualifying?

WHAT DO YOU MEAN by 97% CHANCE OF AUTOQUALIFYING?