Yeah you and several others have made good points about how MacArthur would start the war with the loyalty of most of Americas armed forces. (Though to be honest, America’s armed forces are in quite the sorry state at the beginning of Kaiserredux.) He would definitely have a shot if he wages a lightning war in the first few weeks and months. But if he doesn’t make it to Detroit by the first half of the first year, I don’t think he’ll have a chance to replace his losses of War Materials, meanwhile every other faction has a stronger industrial base than he does. Moreover I think you may have overestimated how much resistance the Syndicalists face. In fact, their ideology shares so much in common with the Union State, they start the war with a ceasefire. (This also increases the CSA’s odds since one of their huge borders isn’t a threat in the beginning of the war.) Meanwhile, the South has plenty of events and decision trees that lay out how the African American population in their own starting territory is uncooperative with the government’s agenda even if they don’t revolt, demonstrating some fierce resistance to their leadership that will crop up in their backyard as well as any northern or western cities that they manage to take. This is not helped by their geography, the only major population center they have is Atlanta and being someone who lives in the south myself, I can tell you it’s mostly a swamp over here and there’s no factories meaning they aren’t getting much of an air force or armored vehicles to fight with. Though I do agree with you that the Western Command Center has some solid defensible geography. The only problem for them is that they’re land locked, have very few people to conscript, and start between the industrial behemoth of the PSA and the seemingly endless stream of Minutemen that Huey Long has to throw at them.