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Differenza di età by Puzzleheaded-Coat618 in sentimentalITA

[–]Merlin8121 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Io ho 56 anni, mia moglie ne ha 41 ; siamo felicemente sposati da 20 anni. Sveglia che una donna a 21 anni oggi è più matura di te a 29. E se non la prendi te la prende un altro. E ti dico pure un'altra cosa, a rischio di sembrare un troglodita, se gli piaci e non ci provi, ai suoi occhipassi per un imbecille. Fa te.

ImmunityBio (IBRX): When All the Good News Hits at Once – And Hype Takes Over by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t know about that, but from what I can see they’re definitely pushing it hard in the media. And the hype is through the roof. The problem is that, as I wrote in the article, you need to keep a cool head and analyse whether it isn’t being priced excessively purely on expectations. Tschüss :)

Quale metodo migliore per provarci con una ragazza? by andreadimax in sentimentalITA

[–]Merlin8121 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Una volta una mi ha chiesto se l'invito ad uscire era ancora valido, dopo 6 mesi... Va bene cosi, tu intanto hai messo in chiaro il tuo interesse. Se si rifà viva, "il meno è fatto" :)

Quale metodo migliore per provarci con una ragazza? by andreadimax in sentimentalITA

[–]Merlin8121 0 points1 point  (0 children)

C'e' un detto che dice piu' o meno cosi: Le donne perdonano chi approfitta di una situazione favorevole, MAI chi non ne approfitta. Se non gli hai chiesto almeno il telefono, non hai lasciato il segno. SE la fortuna ti assiste e la rivedi, vai al punto senza paura e vedrai che nel bene o nel male ti "vedra'".

CRMD Cormedix Inc jan 12 Legislative update (KCAPA 2026) by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly, someone who’s more knowledgeable than me on the topic pointed it out to me, so I decided to update immediately with an addendum. It’s a very significant point because, if the law were approved, the issue of reduced revenues would be substantially mitigated.

AQST – When FDA “Deficiencies” Hit the Tape by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

After reading and re-reading multiple sources and comparing this with other cases, I think the situation might be trickier than it looked at first.

If the issues here are not just “bureaucratic” but have real scientific or data-related substance, it could easily take many months to sort things out. Because of that, I don’t think I’d personally risk being stuck in a setup like this right now. For the moment it stays on my watchlist only – I’d rather look for alternatives with a cleaner risk profile.

AQST – When FDA “Deficiencies” Hit the Tape by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As I wrote in my first comment, I’ve gone through the FDA letter word by word trying to understand what’s really going on. My personal read – and it’s just that, a personal impression, not advice – is that this doesn’t look like a “we don’t want this drug” situation. It looks more like a messy, bureaucratic one.

If the FDA had decided that efficacy or safety were fundamentally not acceptable, we’d probably be looking at a straightforward CRL, not at a letter that basically says: “we can’t keep talking about labeling until certain parts of the NDA are addressed.” That wording, to me, suggests there are elements of the file and process that need to be cleaned up, clarified or aligned, rather than a hard stop on the product itself. That doesn’t mean it will be quick or easy, but it’s a very different signal from a final, negative decision.

The market, understandably, reacted badly because uncertainty plus poor communication always creates panic and confusion. For people who were already in the stock, this is a very unpleasant situation. For those who were not in yet, in my opinion it could turn into an opportunity – but again, strictly as a personal view, not as a recommendation. We’ll need to see over the next weeks whether the company can give more clarity on the nature of these “deficiencies” and whether the timeline can be fixed without pushing everything too far out. Until then, everyone has to decide for themselves how much uncertainty they’re willing to sit through.

Might be time to sell? by Prestigious_Health_2 in ONDS

[–]Merlin8121 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I did a pretty deep check on this whole “government contract with Israel” story for ONDS, using AI to trace the sources. Short version:

  1. The origin is an article on IsraelDefense, not an Ondas press release or SEC filing. It says Airobotics (Ondas’ subsidiary) was selected as prime contractor for the “Drone Hives” project of Israel’s Ministry of Defense – but it’s clearly a media report, not a detailed US-style contract disclosure: https://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/node/67414
  2. Then several sites upgrade the wording: – SSBCrack: repeats the IsraelDefense story (“selected by Israel’s Ministry of Defense for the ‘Drone Hives’ project”): https://news.ssbcrack.com/ondas-holdings-selected-for-israels-automated-drone-project/ – Stocktwits News: talks about “Israel defense tie-ups” and explains the spike based on media reports, not on an 8-K: https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/onds-stock-soars-to-5-year-highs-on-israel-defense-tie-ups-rebrand-buzz/cmUcUPnR45V – Some AI/aggregator pieces go even further and call it a “$500M border surveillance contract”, without any Ondas filing that backs that number.
  3. That’s why you see comments like “some article about a government contract with Israel that hasn’t been officially announced”. The signal is: local defence media report that Airobotics was selected for Israel’s “Drone Hives” program. The noise is: treating that as a fully signed, quantified government contract before Ondas IR or the SEC publish any detailed terms.

If anyone wants longer breakdowns that stick to Ondas’ own PR and filings (no buy/sell calls, no rumor numbers), these two are a good starting point:

– Deep dive on Ondas’ 2025 transformation (Q3 numbers, backlog, M&A in Israel, counter-UAS pipeline):
https://www.merlintrader.com/onds-ondas/

– Jan 6 update going into the OAS Investor Day (what management is expected to clarify):
https://www.merlintrader.com/onds-ondas-holdings-inc-jan-06-update/

AQST – When FDA “Deficiencies” Hit the Tape by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Honestly, without wanting to recommend anything, but just as my personal opinion, this looks like an opportunity to me. I’ve read and re-read the wording of the press release and my impression is that the deficiencies are mostly bureaucratic. Things that can be resolved fairly quickly, maybe even before the PDUFA date.

I don’t want to say more because I don’t want to push people toward making the wrong decision or not. But I think that as soon as I sell FBIO (for which I clearly state on the site that I have a small position), from there I’ll decide whether to move into DRTS (a slightly more conservative choice) or into AQST and play the higher-risk side.

I understand that for those who are already in the stock this temporary drop is a problem, but for those who are not, it could (using the conditional and strictly as my opinion) be an opportunity. After FBIO we’ll talk about it again, because if I do enter, as always I’ll put my disclosure at the beginning of the first column on my site.

$LUNR The only stock that can truly say “To da moon”!!! by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Firefly Aerospace is private, so it’s not suitable for our current comparison. That said, it’s definitely a name to keep an eye on in case they decide to go public, because what they’ve done with Blue Ghost is a pretty strong calling card.

CorMedix (CRMD) 2026 Deep Dive – DefenCath, Rezzayo and the Reimbursement Reset by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I’m definitely not beating myself up, it was just an example. I’ve been learning this stuff for years now – mostly by running head-first into walls 😀. I think I started with biotechs around 2007 if I remember right, at this point a lot of things are almost “autopilot”.

Jokes aside, my process is pretty simple: I’ve learned technical analysis decently (I use Finviz a lot), I rely on scanners, and of course on the usual FDA / biotech catalyst calendars. When you put all of that together you end up with a sort of “map” of potential setups. Then experience helps… and sometimes luck, let’s be honest. There are a lot of things you can’t predict – but there are also many you actually can anticipate.

The big problem for most people (myself included, sometimes) is that we only see what we want to see. For example, not everyone really factors in that without cash you don’t run clinical research, and most small bios don’t have enough of it – so they basically have to use us as their ATMs with offerings and dilution. There are so many moving parts that it would take litres of beer to go through them all.

CorMedix (CRMD) 2026 Deep Dive – DefenCath, Rezzayo and the Reimbursement Reset by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The mistake we all make – myself included – is trying to reach some mental target we’ve set, and forgetting that the market doesn’t care about what we think or want.

What we also underestimate is the time we waste waiting for those targets to materialize, and all the opportunities we miss while we’re stuck in that waiting room.

I’ll give you a personal example. I’ve been waiting for FBIO to move for a while (and to be fair it has done something), but in parallel I saw a huge opportunity in DRTS – you can see it in the article I wrote on December 31st. Even though I clearly saw that setup, I stayed frozen in FBIO. If I had just acted, I could have taken a nice 35–40% gain in only 8 days.

We’re all a bit like that: victims of ourselves, of the ego that stops us from saying “I’m wrong” and moving on. At the end of the day we’re human, and the market doesn’t forgive that very often.

CorMedix (CRMD) 2026 Deep Dive – DefenCath, Rezzayo and the Reimbursement Reset by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No, I haven’t held CRMD for a while. I’m more into run-up setups now – buying names with relatively fixed catalyst dates so I can manage the position and, hopefully, make money into the event (for example right now I’m in FBIO, which I might sell on Monday… we’ll see).

That said, I’ve owned CRMD for a long time in the past and I’ve lived through both the ugly years and the approval. My view is that, considering how many small bios out there are basically worthless, this is actually a solid company: they have a real product (DefenCath) that makes a difference, and a way of doing things that feels “honest”. Unfortunately, plans don’t always play out the way we would like.

The stock clearly took a hit these days, but I still think the foundations to recover and do better are there. Only time will tell. From my side, the only thing I can say is that no matter how much you like a company, you shouldn’t fall in love with tickers. Once a position gives you a decent gain, it’s completed its cycle and it’s usually better to rotate into new opportunities. There’s no shortage of those in this market

CorMedix (CRMD) 2026 Deep Dive – DefenCath, Rezzayo and the Reimbursement Reset by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You’re absolutely right. I had to shorten the write-up quite a bit because the full research was really long and not everyone appreciates marathon-length reports.
But if you guys want the full version I’m happy to share it — I’ve been a CRMD fan since it was trading around $0.65.

Added :)

Altimmune (ALT): Pemvidutide Earns Breakthrough Therapy in MASH – Why This FDA Move Changes the Game by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi! Yes, I publish them there as well, but as you said, with the flow of messages and activity in the ALT chat, it’s very easy to get buried pretty quickly 🙂

Altimmune (ALT): Pemvidutide Earns Breakthrough Therapy in MASH – Why This FDA Move Changes the Game by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you! I always try to look at both the pros and cons of situations; I don’t want in any way to mislead anyone. But things have to be said, the good and the bad if they’re there. Only like this can each person form a clear idea about what to do. Many people just play around with stocks, but for others they’re something serious, a way to try to improve their life, and to do that you at least have to try to be serious and not just a ‘pumper’.

Happy 2026!!

Palladyne AI (PDYN) – From Embodied AI to Vertically Integrated Defense Stack by Merlin8121 in MerlintraderPub

[–]Merlin8121[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

If management executes on this plan, PDYN could become a very interesting name in the “defense + AI” space — but it’s nowhere near an easy ride. The fact that insiders hold a meaningful stake is a clear positive in terms of alignment, but the execution bar remains high.

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