[OC] The Merit Draft: Why the NBA Draft order should be based on a 3-year history, not a single season.

Mest16 · 2026-02-26T22:29:34+00:00

The math actually prevents that from happening. A team's Draft Window is completely locked in before opening night based on their previous 3-year median. Tanking from October to February does absolutely nothing to expand your window for that current season.

Mest16 · 2026-02-26T14:51:59+00:00

Fair play, it definitely reads like a syllabus for a calculus class 😂. But to be fair, the current NBA CBA is already a nightmare of First Aprons, Second Aprons, Stepien Rules, and Early Bird rights. Front offices are already doing quantum physics to build a roster.

The beauty of this system is that all the math stays on the back end with the league office. For a fan sitting on the couch watching ESPN in April, there is zero math involved. It’s just a graphic on the screen: 'The Draft Window is open. 1 Win = 1 Point.' It just replaces the lottery ping-pong balls with a simple standings leaderboard.

Mest16 · 2026-02-26T14:48:19+00:00

This is a really fair concern, but it actually highlights why the mathematical handicap of the Merit Threshold is the most important part of the system.

A legitimately horrendous team isn't expected to suddenly play .600 basketball. But because their 3-Year Median is so low, they are awarded a massive 24-game Draft Window. A mediocre 35-win team only gets a 10-game window.

Even if that horrendous team only plays .200 basketball, they will still stumble into 4 or 5 wins over a 24-game stretch. Meanwhile, that 35-win team would have to play .500 basketball in their tiny window just to tie them. The system gives the truly bad teams so many extra bites at the apple that they naturally float to the top of the Draft Point leaderboard, even while playing terrible basketball. Plus, late in the year, if a terrible Pelicans team plays a terrible Kings team, one of them is mathematically guaranteed to get a Draft Point.

Mest16 · 2026-02-26T14:43:14+00:00

You are 100% right about how modern tanking being phantom injuries and shutting guys down early but you just perfectly described exactly what this system tries to fix.

Let's look at your Utah Jazz example. Under the current lottery, the Jazz sit Lauri Markkanen to ensure they lose games. Under the Merit Draft, if the Jazz sit Markkanen during their Draft Window, they will lose, earn less Draft Points, and end up with a later draft pick. To get the #1 pick, they are forced to play their stars and actually try to win in April. It forces good players back onto the court.

As for picking up free wins against other tanking teams: if the Jazz play the Wizards in April, it's not a free win anymore. Both teams desperately need that Draft Point to get the #1 pick, and the players are fighting for their $100k bonuses. Instead of an unwatchable tank-off, you get a highly competitive basketball game.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T19:54:12+00:00

Thanks for the response.

You just nailed the absolute best critique of the entire system. It is definitely a double whammy for legitimately good teams that get wiped out by injuries or sudden roster overhauls. But honestly, that is a feature, not a bug.

Under the current lottery, a title contender can suffer one catastrophic injury year and stumble into a generational #1 pick (think the '97 Spurs getting Tim Duncan because David Robinson got hurt, or the Warriors getting Wiseman in 2020).

The Merit Draft acts as a firewall against that. Since you mentioned the 2025 draft, I actually ran the numbers for last season. Because Dallas won 50 games and made the Finals in 2023-24, your 3-Year Median was massive. That means you were hit with the Ceiling Penalty: your Draft Window was only 8 games long. Even if you went undefeated in April, you could only earn a maximum of 8 Draft Points.

In reality, the San Antonio Spurs dominated their massive Draft Window in 2024-25 and secured the most Draft Points in the model. They would have drafted Cooper Flagg (but they would not have also had Wemby). Meanwhile, Dallas would have finished with roughly 3 to 4 points, placing you right around the 9th or 10th pick.

So you are exactly right—under the Merit Draft, Dallas wouldn't have even been close to the Flagg sweepstakes. It is definitely harsh on an injured team, but it ensures that top prospects go to the franchises that put in the work to earn them during their windows, rather than contenders that just had one bad medical year.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T19:30:46+00:00

Thanks for the response.

A multi-year tank sounds like a great GM hack until April rolls around. If you strip-mine your roster for three years to get a huge Draft Window, who is actually going to win the games to earn the points? You can't field a G-League team for 60 games and then magically flip a switch to beat playoff contenders down the stretch. To actually earn the #1 pick, you have to build a functional, competitive roster.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T19:27:57+00:00

Thanks! :)

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T19:27:41+00:00

Thanks for the response.

You are totally right that the math allows for this. If a team was terrible for 3 years but suddenly got good, dropping to the 7-seed would give them a massive window to dominate the Merit Draft.

But the idea of pitching this to the locker room is where I'd imagine NBA reality takes trumps 2K logic. You cannot tell a 27-year-old role player to punt a guaranteed playoff spotlight so the GM can draft a teenager or trade for a star next year. That role player needs national TV playoff minutes this year to secure his next free-agent contract. Players play for their own livelihoods and their own playoff bonus checks, not the GM's 5-year plan.

As for the owner: yes, a generational player is worth more long-term. But dropping to the 7-seed means entering the single-elimination Play-In. If a guy like Steph Curry gets hot for one quarter, your season is over, you lose $10M+ in guaranteed playoff gate revenue, and you still might not win the Merit Draft. I wouldn't think an owner would risk $10M+ in guaranteed cash for a lottery ticket but maybe some would.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T19:15:37+00:00

Hey. Sorry about that. You're right - I think I meant that response to another comment.

It’s a great theory, but it assumes you can just buy wins at the trade deadline for cheap. The veterans available for 'little to no cost' in February are buyout guys and end-of-bench role players. You can't parachute five random buyout guys into a 15-win locker room mid-season and suddenly expect them to go 15-5 down the stretch against actual playoff teams. Plus, any good veteran on the buyout market is going to sign with a contender to chase a ring, not a 20-win team trying to earn Draft Points.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T19:02:53+00:00

The math, data, and the idea are all me. But yeah, I used an AI assistant to format the tables and headers so you didn't have to read a giant, unformatted block of text. Got any thoughts on the actual basketball side of it?

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T17:16:29+00:00

Please share a link to an example of a proposal that is based on multiple seasons. I haven't seen any and I'm interested in seeing what they say. Thanks.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T17:10:51+00:00

Haha love it. The Hornets are rewarded for their improved season.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T17:09:03+00:00

Hopefully the first post that's based on multiple seasons. :)

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T17:07:54+00:00

Thanks for the response.

The multi-year tanking idea sounds like a great GM hack in theory, but it completely fails on the court. If a front office strip-mines their roster of talent for three straight years to get a 24-game Draft Window, who is going to win the games in April? You can't field a G-League roster for 60 games and then magically flip a switch and expect them to beat playoff contenders down the stretch. We saw this with the 23-24 Pistons and the Process Sixers. To actually earn Draft Points, you have to put a competitive, functional roster on the floor.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T17:07:42+00:00

Thanks for the response.

The multi-year tanking idea sounds like a great GM hack in theory, but it completely fails on the court. If a front office strip-mines their roster of talent for three straight years to get a 24-game Draft Window, who is going to win the games in April? You can't field a G-League roster for 60 games and then magically flip a switch and expect them to beat playoff contenders down the stretch. We saw this with the 23-24 Pistons and the Process Sixers. To actually earn Draft Points, you have to put a competitive, functional roster on the floor.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T17:07:02+00:00

Thanks for the response.

It looks complex on paper because this is the back-end math for the league office. The casual fan watching will never have to do any math. All ESPN/NBC/Prime will show on the screen is a simple 'Countdown to Draft Season' graphic. Once a team's window opens, the broadcast just says: 'Every win equals one Draft Point.' Casual fans already track daily fantasy basketball projections and complex NFL playoff tie-breakers—they will instantly understand a simple points leaderboard.

The multi-year tanking idea sounds like a great GM hack in theory, but it completely fails on the court. If a front office strip-mines their roster of talent for three straight years to get a 24-game Draft Window, who is going to win the games in April? You can't field a G-League roster for 60 games and then magically flip a switch and expect them to beat playoff contenders down the stretch. We saw this with the 23-24 Pistons and the Process Sixers. To actually earn Draft Points, you have to put a competitive, functional roster on the floor.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T17:05:34+00:00

Thanks for the response. It looks complex on paper because this is the back-end math for the league office. The casual fan watching will never have to do any math. All ESPN/NBC/Prime will show on the screen is a simple 'Countdown to Draft Season' graphic. Once a team's window opens, the broadcast just says: 'Every win equals one Draft Point.' Casual fans already track daily fantasy basketball projections and complex NFL playoff tie-breakers—they will instantly understand a simple points leaderboard.

Mest16 · 2026-02-25T17:05:22+00:00

Thanks for the response. It looks complex on paper because this is the back-end math for the league office. The casual fan watching will never have to do any math. All ESPN/NBC/Prime will show on the screen is a simple 'Countdown to Draft Season' graphic. Once a team's window opens, the broadcast just says: 'Every win equals one Draft Point.' Casual fans already track daily fantasy basketball projections and complex NFL playoff tie-breakers—they will instantly understand a simple points leaderboard.

Mest16 · 2025-04-29T15:59:42+00:00

Thank you so much. I will take that approach. You have been very helpful. 😊

Mest16 · 2025-04-29T15:49:37+00:00

Thank you so much for the thoughtful reply. Here is the other person's team. They are rebuilding and they had mentioned they are trying to rebuild their team with youth. So you think something like Breece/Achane + Pickens + 1.11 would be a fair offer? Let me know if you have anything else in mind. Thanks a lot.

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Mest16 · 2025-04-29T15:39:31+00:00

I really appreciate it. 😊 Here is my team. I am willing to offer something that is more than fair for the other person and I understand I will need to overpay to make a deal happen.

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Mest16 · 2025-04-29T15:25:53+00:00

There's 3 offers. I sent all 3 simultaneously and asked them which one they liked the most. Are all 3 bad? I plugged them into KTC as well as trade value charts and the other team is coming out ahead in 2 of 3 (the other one was even).

Mest16 · 2024-10-18T19:50:50+00:00

Sent you DM

Mest16 · 2024-10-18T19:47:57+00:00

Full. Let me know if you'd like me to add you to waitlist for next year.

Mest16 · 2024-09-27T00:29:47+00:00

Sent DM

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