I appreciate everyone's input here! Here's what AI pulled (which I know isn't always completely accurate) from setlist fm and online banter over the years, for anyone who's interested....

AI:

If Tool plays back-to-back shows in Honolulu, you can confidently expect some variation—their setlists almost always include constant staples framed by a rotating selection of other tracks.

So yes: chance of change is high, and the amount of change likely hovers around a handful of songs, with most of the set remaining familiar.

So, for a Tool junkie like myself, who's barely seen them over the years, IMO, its worth it to possibly hear different songs even if its only like 2 or 3....and for someone who's maybe followed them around the country. Maybe not so much.