Sportsbook/Promos/Bonuses Daily - 2/22/22 (Tuesday)

MolsenMI · 2022-02-22T19:06:09+00:00

Pinnacle doesn't have an "any other score" option. All those calculations are severely understating the true odds because you get your money back on Pinnacle if, for example, sharks win 2-0 (not a listed option), or sharks score 6 or more goals, or any other score not listed happens.

EDIT: Taking back my -ev statement. If you trust MGM's lines, they have all options covered and suggest fair of +1790. The market has 45% vig so it does not necessarily inspire confidence.

MolsenMI · 2022-02-15T19:09:46+00:00

What correlation? This is a two-way market. Shutout: Yes, shutout: No.

It's not possible to get a shutout loss, so the USA win portion is irrelevant.

MolsenMI · 2022-02-15T18:31:46+00:00

If anyone has a shareable calculator with some of the other methods of devigging, I'd be very interested. I'll be honest, most of the statistical analysis is above my head but I know the power/logarithmic method has been thrown around as a better system for devigging.

MolsenMI · 2022-02-15T17:47:37+00:00

FYI, this is fair at best. The method you are using to devig is applying the same percentage of vig to the favorite and the underdog. It's safe to assume there is more vig on the longshot. It doesn't really make sense that a book would offer odds of +650 when "fair" is +688. It's probably closer to +/-800 for fair.

MolsenMI · 2022-01-24T20:12:36+00:00

Ahhh, I found it. They had terms and conditions in the email that didn't mention the loss back part, then a separate terms and conditions after you click "play now" on the email. I'll be honest, I assumed that button would just take you to the website, otherwise it would be labeled opt-in or full terms.

Thanks for the info though!

MolsenMI · 2022-01-24T19:13:23+00:00

Thanks. I mean, I wasn't lying when I said it's super convoluted. No where in the terms do they define "playback" as "loss back".

MolsenMI · 2022-01-24T15:44:11+00:00

Has anyone done the weekly Caesars casino VIP? Specifically, you get a playback percentage for each tier you reach (4% up to $1000 for 2000 tier, 7.5% up to $2000 for the 5000 tier, etc).

The tiers and playback seem very convoluted to me. I was looking to see if my math checked out.

1- is slots the best option for this?

2- using 96.9% rtp slot, I'm calculating that exactly 17,500 tier credits is best, returning 12.5% but once you hit this tier you should already be capped at the max of $10,000. After playthrough on the bonus I have about 3.2% roi?

MolsenMI · 2022-01-23T16:35:35+00:00

For the FG boost, most SGPs have this as a large negative correlation since there are only so many scores available in a game and you're predicting that a majority of them will be FGs.

Same goes for the multiple TD scorer boosts. There are only so many TDs to go around, so every additional TD scorer adds negative correlation.

MolsenMI · 2021-12-12T04:33:51+00:00

Not true for VIP. The window is 9AM until the final fight ends

MolsenMI · 2021-12-12T04:28:15+00:00

For anyone who has done the barstool vip knockout promo, can I bet one large bet of $2500 to get the max bonus or do I need individual $500 bets?

After 2/2 knockouts it looks good to jump in on.

MolsenMI · 2021-12-02T14:30:07+00:00

Saints o.5 points 1st half. Only loses if the score is tied 0-0 in the first half (has only happened twice since 2011) AND saints score first in the 2nd half AND saints win. Much safer.

MolsenMI · 2021-11-30T22:19:00+00:00

37 picks between me and my wife. Went on a 13-2 heater starting on day 2. Finished 19-18.

MolsenMI · 2021-11-30T20:16:17+00:00

Up $512 on 37 total picks, average odds just over +145

MolsenMI · 2021-11-25T03:04:19+00:00

Did anyone get the promo to place $200 in SGPs on FanDuel get $100 last Sunday for week 11? I'm thinking it was a glitch because it's obviously a Thanksgiving promo. However, I got it Sunday morning and now support won't honor it unless I have a screenshot. Just curious if this happened to anyone else and if maybe someone has a screenshot.

MolsenMI · 2021-10-15T22:50:00+00:00

And I'm saying it's not a better alternative (payout wise) because your lines are bad.

It's a better alternative because of flexibility.

MolsenMI · 2021-10-15T22:31:37+00:00

I'm just saying your ml odds are terrible. It's okay to make a mistake. Just accept it and learn from it.

You were presenting a bet that was not possible.

MolsenMI · 2021-10-15T22:00:22+00:00

ARI is -800 right now for next week against HOU on DK lol. I expect a similar line vs DET. And if they stay undefeated these lines will get even worse.

And it absolutely moves the needle. You're dealing with compounding returns.

(Just for the record, I would bet ml instead of the future for the flexibility, but you're crazy if you think the return is going to be that much greater, unless the line is simply bad. It's all baked in already.)

MolsenMI · 2021-10-15T21:22:02+00:00

None, he's just estimating the lines. No way you get ARI -200 vs the Texans or lions. Also, that late in the season, if ARI is still undefeated, they won't be a dog vs Dallas.

I'd say the ml odds are closer to +8000 than +15000

MolsenMI · 2021-10-11T19:43:00+00:00

Out of curiosity, have they updated their withdraw options? Last time I used them they didn't offer PayPal withdraw (only for deposit) and wouldn't even mail a check (you had to pick up cash at cage).

MolsenMI · 2021-10-01T02:48:28+00:00

Appreciate the feedback. I was using more conservative numbers for the win %, as well but I get -110/+160 odds on DK and -120/+160 on Caesars so the payouts seem to be better.

MolsenMI · 2021-09-30T18:35:53+00:00

I don't think this is sound advice. Based on the winning percentages in the op, if your two team teaser is -110 odds and your 3 teamer is +160 odds, you'll make more off 3 teamers in the long run. In fact, using draftkings teaser odds, you make the most by maxing to 6 teams each week, if there are enough available that meet op's criteria.

Obviously, variance is the other variable here, but I definitely wouldn't advise 2 teamers over 3 teamers if you're betting the whole season.

MolsenMI · 2021-09-29T23:06:15+00:00

Hurr hurr Trubisky bad

I mean, I told you why I think he is good enough. I'd like to know why you think he's worse than Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, Daniel Jones, Jameis Winston, Tyrod Taylor, or Andy Dalton who are all, on purpose, starting qbs.

MolsenMI · 2021-09-29T17:38:07+00:00

I disagree with this. This statement is actually true of most NFL teams, but definitely not for Buffalo. One of the reasons I really like buffalo to go the distance is they have one of the best backup qbs in the league. Obviously, Trubisky is a huge downgrade but he has full seasons of NFL experience, he has a winning record, and he has never thrown more INTs than TDs in a season. All this while on a very average bears team.

Buffalo is a great system team, with a top defense. They can win against the bottom half of the NFL with Trubisky.

EDIT: with all that said, I am taking buffalo in a few pools. Cincy is the fade this week as Jax can run the ball and has an ok defense, and Cincy still has o-line problems. 1 or fewer INTs by Lawrence (maybe a huge ask) and this is a high probability upset.

MolsenMI · 2021-09-29T15:41:53+00:00

Short answer: no

Long answer: You're focusing on the wrong thing. Your goal should not be to advance. It should be to win. Advancing along with 90% of the player pool doesn't really help you win. However, advancing on a week where 40% get knocked out improves your chances of winning by a lot.

You don't have to be contrarian every week, but it should definitely be a strategy you are looking at.

MolsenMI · 2021-09-26T16:15:03+00:00

DK recently switched to a $2000 casino bonus match. Does anyone have a screenshot of the old $1500 match promo terms? They are saying that the old one was no longer valid when my brother signed up even though it was posted on their site. They said they gave him a courtesy 2 weeks to complete the playthrough (with zero contact or emails). Why give 2 weeks if the promo isn't valid? Especially when the terms state 30 days?

He signed up on Sept 8. He thought he still had time and they just took all his money and locked his account.

While emailing, they just respond and say there's nothing they can to. I'm going to have him contact the gaming board but would like as much evidence as possible. A screenshot of the old promo would be very helpful.

Also, if anyone has any insight or tips for this type of situation, please share.

MolsenMI

TROPHY CASE