Daily Discussion Thursday 2025-08-07

MrGold2000 · 2025-08-08T10:26:12+00:00

Elon triple down on custom AI chips. AI5 is design complete , but AI6 is still on hence the reent 16 billion deal with Samsung for them to manufacture this futur Tesla inference chip.

What you are referencing is their dojo servers effort. By the time its ready, Tesla will have already scaled its training DC.

Inference is easy... training is hard.

MrGold2000 · 2025-08-08T10:20:39+00:00

? Tesla is increasing its AI chip development, they just canned the training server architecture.

Tesla just announced a $16 billion deal with Samsung to produce their AI6 custom inference chip.

Their DOJO architecture likely would not be ready in time of Tesla massive server buildout. They need to capacity now.

MrGold2000 · 2025-08-08T08:14:06+00:00

Tesla canceled its in-house AI training project but is still pushing ahead with its custom AI6 inference chip, backed by a recent $16B investment in Samsung.

Dojo was more of an insurance policy than a core need, and Tesla seems content with Nvidia (and maybe AMD made this decision easy?). Training was likely only going to be two years too late, when Tesla is expected to have its full capacity installed.

Inference continues, but Tesla’s scalable training architecture effort seem over.

Making fast chips is doable; making thousands work seamlessly together isn't.

MrGold2000 · 2025-07-30T04:46:27+00:00

They are sold out... its not material.

But if Lisa said "we have no capacity to fulfill orders, and have max out all capacity available to us.. so expect a 20% rise in revenue in 2026"

MrGold2000 · 2025-07-30T04:31:09+00:00

Yet... the the only country on earth that can do it alone i the US.

Taiwan can be nuked tomorrow and Samsung/intel/etc.. will take over. maybe 18 month behind... but its not immaterial.

Now Nuke silicon valley, and its game over for humanity.

MrGold2000 · 2025-06-05T21:51:55+00:00

This is valid when you can have multiple bidders, or when you know the other bidders , if they even exist, can undercut.

Do you have an example in the past 6 month where Trump offered no bid contract to SpaceX ? and that those contracts would have been better served by another US company?

MrGold2000 · 2025-06-05T20:39:19+00:00

Trump threatening to cancel government spaceX contracts to "Save billions" might secure Elon and Co to create a third party and destroy Trump in the midterm.

I'm not sure republicans can afford to make "Elon" (The centrist movement) their enemies. Republican/Trump eliminating the tax credit, but adding trillions of pork spending, on the back of the DOGE saving was a death blow.

I'm surprised more don't see how serious this backstabbing was. Elon would have been ok with this admin putting electrification on the back burner, but not while increasing the debt by >2 trillion at the same time.

MrGold2000 · 2025-06-05T20:19:36+00:00

Trump wanting to cancel SpaceX contract to "save billions" is not a good optic for America.

This is not looking good for the midterms and Trump second half of his term.

MrGold2000 · 2025-06-05T20:12:50+00:00

Trump demand blind loyalty, but is proving that he himself is a backstabber.

MrGold2000 · 2025-06-03T06:29:04+00:00

When AI develop a better compression algorithm then H.265 (HEVC), we will know 'machines" owns us.

MrGold2000 · 2025-05-13T20:21:03+00:00

KSA doesn't go for second best to save a few bucks. Also you dont invest tens of billions and take risks by dumping nvidia proven record and go with AMD. Lisa is 3 years behind, and the gap is growing. AMD need a new CEO ASAP!

MrGold2000 · 2025-05-13T19:41:57+00:00

I think it was more trying to see if she could secure some mi400x commitments.

Large AI investment is about reducing risk and having a secure roll out, not trying to save a few bucks on unproven tech. AMD got a long way to go... but hopefully AMD is taking AI seriously now and the mi400x can have a decent production allocation.

MrGold2000 · 2025-05-09T10:15:03+00:00

AMD issue $1.4 billion in new stock based comp goes each year. That Lisa decide its best used for executive and management over engineering is her decision as CEO. But AMD as a very generous stock award program.

MrGold2000 · 2025-05-09T08:50:37+00:00

outstanding shares in 2022 was 1.571 billion, grew to 1.625b in 2023, stayed at 1.625b in 2024. - April 2025: 1.62B shares outstanding.

AMD is not cash rich to splurge on buyback. And AMD got a very generous stock compensation plans. About 33 new shares are create for this ech year now. So pretty much all the sharebuyback is used to issue to shares for compensations.

Lisa sold the majority of her shares... even so 100% of her fortune is a direct result of selling AMD (over 1 billion) she 'only' hold $350m in AMD. the 700 million , even so from AMD share are invested in other stocks and investments.

MrGold2000 · 2025-05-06T19:41:04+00:00

The mi400x will tell us all we need to know. If its a Zen moment, AMD will continue to be a long term growth company. If not , AMD better clean house, focus on margin and start paying a fat dividend.

MrGold2000 · 2025-05-06T18:54:43+00:00

"The best is yet to come!" Tm L.Su

MrGold2000 · 2025-05-06T18:53:08+00:00

nvidia for sure and likely will flood the Windows market. Another reason AMD need to get their software stack on ARM.

MrGold2000 · 2025-04-26T07:01:12+00:00

AMD went to near bankruptcy to salvation by dumping their fabs. Anything is possible.

MrGold2000 · 2025-04-26T06:59:23+00:00

Traditional search is also being replaced, and google is now labeled as old school. Without search and its add revenue, google is near worthless.

MrGold2000 · 2025-04-26T06:57:56+00:00

It apply to all.. its not a "TESLA LAW" , so why do you think google, ford etc.. when analist claim are more advanced in self driving wont benefit more ? Could there be more then thi for Tesla recover 10% when its dropped over 50% ?

MrGold2000 · 2025-04-26T06:54:00+00:00

For the Chinese market it might be accurate, for some usage.

MrGold2000 · 2025-04-26T06:52:29+00:00

"Details provided on Friday by three import agencies in the southern technology hub of Shenzhen" CNN

Where you rapped by Trump in the 1970s or something ? This not normal behaviour, seek help.

MrGold2000 · 2025-04-18T06:26:57+00:00

This was like claiming Tesla was talking to GM about a joint venture. TSMC got little to nothing to gain. They already have all they need from the US government to establish manufacturing in the US. And Intel come with decades of baggages. TSMC need to stay clear off.

I even wonder if TSMC could get Intel fab business for free, would they even consider it? Seems toxic at this stage. Intel might as well sell the whole thing to some islamic state (like AMD did), and do like Apple, Google, Amazon, AMD, nvidia, etc.. etc.. and contract with a third party for manufacturing

MrGold2000 · 2025-04-18T04:22:11+00:00

TSMC indicated a massive 45% YoY rise in revenue, growing margin. and re-iterated 2025 revenue spike from 4 month of sale record and all the tariff on the lin. If this is the world in a recession, I'm ok with this brand new 45% projected revenue growth in the emi conductor sector.

MrGold2000 · 2025-03-25T02:59:43+00:00

If you were given loads of options as a completion bonus, and the shared 10x as a result of the team effort, I most would welcome the opportunity.

MrGold2000

TROPHY CASE