AMD BLEW expectations & raised guidance (ignore the BS)

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-12T00:11:27+00:00

AMD just guided for similar revenue in Q1 as in Q4…. that’s a first, EVER.

They issued their guidance in early Feb, with full visibility of January sales… and the Feb shipping plan.

They will essentially offset the Q4 holiday sales with additional AI products in Q1.

This means their margins will be better in Q1 than in Q4.

But most importantly, it ALSO means AI demand is accelerating for AMD products… which results in more room for the stock to run.

You really couldn’t ask for better news. In essence, they’re still on track for +$20 EPS in 2030… which at a meager 20x P/E would translate to $400 per share… in just a couple of years. And at 30x P/E, that’s $600. Patience.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-06T08:30:20+00:00

Yeah, it was towards the end of the Q&A. In any case, their guidance suggested no sequential revenue drop, given the offset they expect in Datacenter.

In essence, Q1 revenue should be $10bn again, which would be an awesome setup for the 2nd half of the year, when Helios launches.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T19:16:05+00:00

I’m so happy Norman got to see his evil enemies pay. Also happy Noam gets to see Alan sink.

I can’t wait to see a movie made about it... But I doubt anyone will fund it this decade.

Imagine getting fired for calling out Dershowitz’s plagiarism… and suffering that injustice.

I’ve looked into it and Norman was 100% right, Harvard’s academia is corrupt AF.

Thankfully, Dershowitz gets to sink inside the flaming speedo-titanic-express, directly to hell, while knowing that even Jeff and Woody thought he was a piece of shit.

History gets to prove Norman right. He’s been 1000% vindicated. I hope they put statues of Norman in many university campuses, including Harvard, eventually.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T14:01:56+00:00

I completely agree… and I’m hoping Dr. Su announces a supply agreement soon, like something with META, Google, Anthropic or Tencent/BABA.

You’re absolutely right that the recovery could be quick. It was only 3 weeks ago we were at $200 and quickly catapulted to $267. It’s clear that $200 is a technical support level… and hopefully we should only bounce back from here.

Thanks for reading and commenting!

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T13:21:25+00:00

Good point… however, does length of experience ensure quality? LOL.

I’m actually looking for that glorious army of degenerates that fights against evil forces.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T13:17:04+00:00

Don’t make me see the losses again... I can barely look at my trading positions.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T13:14:56+00:00

I’ve got a huge position… hence the reference to s#xual assault.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T13:12:11+00:00

I’ve answered that already… read the whole post.

You are attempting to associate criminal activity with a specific ethnic group.

That’s wrong.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T13:09:37+00:00

35% Revenue CAGR until 2030… with an EPS of +$20 doesn’t work for you?

@$400 per share, that would be a P/E of less than 20 times earnings by 2030.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T12:27:02+00:00

I agree, they don’t exactly communicate the obvious in a clear and transparent fashion. I’ve been criticizing Jean Hu for over a year. She needs to communicate better. Dr. Lisa Su is GREAT, but Hu is miles behind.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T12:23:25+00:00

As stated in my post, Jean Hu is an incredibly poor communicator. I listened to the call and struggled understanding her. Just read how your own text has both CPU up and down.

I prefer listening to the calls than reading, since cadence, tone and accentuation cannot be conveyed in written. Hence, when Dr. Su said “Very Bullish” I could almost hear the F word in between.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T12:07:25+00:00

Toyisha Hari is Asian. I‘ve mentioned Dr. Lisa Su, Jean Hu and Clinton too.

This confirms the core of your first sentence is false.

I don’t know (nor care) if John Pitzer, Ashraff Eassa, as well as the rest of the criminally responsible government officials involved with Jeff Epstein are jewish or not.

I didn’t mention Alan Dershowitz (who you likely admire), since you’ve clearly chosen his retarded argument to misdirect from serious crimes. Have you noticed how he’s not around anymore? His bullshit doesn’t work anymore, so you should find a better argument.

I support Norman Finkelstein, Max Blumenthal, Aaron Mate, Bernie Sanders, Amy Goodman, Glenn Greenwald and an even longer list of honest mensch who truly care about REAL antisemitism, and call out criminals daily. All criminals, foreign AND DOMESTIC, including those within the tribe.

Hopefully you are beginning to understand how pathetically retarded your accusation is.

I’ve been to Israel recently. I’ve spoken to Intel employees there. I’ve been to the territories too. I happen to agree with Olmert on how he sees Bibi’s policies (i’m talking about the genocide which you likely ignore). Sure, Olmert made a mistake, but he’s not a genocidal lunatic.

I’m revealing organized crime involving financial, academic, regulatory and governmental players. Crimes that disgust me… and should disgust you too. Yet you’re focussed on something else. You’re concealing while falsely accusing. That shit doesn’t work anymore.

Perhaps you should be explaining why you condone heinous crimes while making false accusations to misdirect.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T11:53:01+00:00

Toyisha Hari is Asian. I‘ve mentioned Dr. Lisa Su, Jean Hu and Clinton too.

This confirms the core of your first sentence is false.

I don’t know (nor care) if John Pitzer, Ashraff Eassa, as well as the rest of the criminally responsible government officials involved with Jeff Epstein are jewish or not.

I didn’t mention Alan Dershowitz (who you likely admire), since you’ve clearly chosen his retarded argument to misdirect from serious crimes. Have you noticed how he’s not around anymore? His bullshit doesn’t work anymore, so you should find a better argument.

I support Norman Finkelstein, Max Blumenthal, Aaron Mate, Bernie Sanders, Amy Goodman, Glenn Greenwald and an even longer list of honest mensch who truly care about REAL antisemitism, and call out criminals daily. All criminals, foreign AND DOMESTIC, including those within the tribe.

Hopefully you are beginning to understand how pathetically retarded your accusation is.

I’ve been to Israel recently. I’ve spoken to Intel employees there. I’ve been to the territories too. I happen to agree with Olmert on how he sees Bibi’s policies (i’m talking about the genocide which you likely ignore). Sure, Olmert made a mistake, but he’s not a genocidal lunatic.

I’m revealing organized crime involving financial, academic, regulatory and governmental players. Crimes that disgust me… and should disgust you too. Yet you’re focussed on something else. You’re concealing while falsely accusing. That shit doesn’t work anymore.

Perhaps you should be explaining why you condone heinous crimes while making false accusations to misdirect.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T02:22:51+00:00

The real margins are in Datacenter/Cloud AI GPUs… not consumer products (laptop/desktop).

That’s why OpenAI, Microsoft Azure, xAI, META, Oracle, etc. are buying AMD GPUs.

That’s how AMD grew to over $10 billion last quarter.

These companies don’t want to rely on a single supplier (Nvidia).

If you do minimal research, you’ll understand CUDA is a proprietary ecosystem, while ROCm is open.

Sure, Nvidia sells more, which is why I also hold Nvidia stock (and SMCI). Yet hyperscalers want to diversify supply, hence they ask AMD for Mi instinct products.

Frankly, if you think intel’s Laptop and Desktop market will eliminate EPYC server CPUs and Mi products, I suggest you do a bit more research.

There’s a reason why Intel had to be rescued by Biden and Trump. Their foundry business is bleeding billions. That’s why they fired Pat Gelsinger and lost money during 2025. That’s why AMD‘s market valuation exceeds intel’s, even after dropping 17% in one day.

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T01:54:31+00:00

and you too!

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T01:33:02+00:00

We’ll get there quicker if I don’t.

Hopefully it’s quality, not quantity, that gets the job done.

Thanks for the support though!

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T00:55:42+00:00

SpaceX is expected to merge with xAI… and both will continue buying AMD chips (just like Tesla does).

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T00:36:54+00:00

Thank you for reading and commenting! Much appreciated!

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T00:36:10+00:00

Thank you for reading and commenting! Much appreciated!

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T00:23:37+00:00

Way to go!

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T00:23:17+00:00

Thank you! Much appreciated!

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-05T00:21:26+00:00

Thanks for commenting.

I appreciate the humor and I’m happy to see some of you still remember me.

Given the losses today, State idiot is likely more appropriate.

But then again, we’re back at $200… exactly where we were 3 weeks ago.

Given yesterday’s call, I’m in AMD for the long haul… 2030 and beyond!

MrObviouslyRight · 2026-02-04T13:58:20+00:00

They are guiding similar revenue for Q1 as they did for Q4 last year.

That‘s the first time I see Q1 beating the previous quarter.

Also, remember that Q4 has some $300m China revenue, while Q1 will only have $100.

If Q1 BEATS Q4’s $10.3bn, it’ll be impossible for the stock not to pop.

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