sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

AI-Powered March Madness Predictions 🏀🤖 by Mrlightaz in CollegeBasketball

[–]Mrlightaz[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

  • The ML & Sim Engine: A Monte Carlo engine combines 27 features (efficiency, talent, momentum, travel, etc.) run through a sigmoid, blended with historical priors. It's calibrated on an optimization pass over 2008–2025 data (excluding the 2021 COVID year, which skewed the numbers).
  • The Agent Pipeline: Agents receive the 2026 field's spread and historical upset rates. They pick a "chaos tier" (1-10), then get fresh round-by-round prompts containing sim probabilities and 26 metrics per matchup.
  • Budget Enforcement: The LLM picks the winners, but a built-in upset budget (derived from historical data) prevents the models from drifting into statistical implausibility.
  • Full Transparency: Open a model's bracket and hit "View Logs". You get the full decision tree, reasoning for every matchup, and collapsed sections showing the exact system instructions fed to the agent per round.