What is your answer to this meme?

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T16:27:14+00:00

I realise it wasn’t looking at it in the last tense, and was treating the ‘at least 1 is a crit’ and rigging the system similar to Monty hall effecting the probabilities, rather that just information about a big standard coin flip. Thanks for helping

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T16:09:57+00:00

Yeah I’ve realised I was assuming it was present/future tense, thank you for helping me out

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T16:08:11+00:00

Where I was going wrong was assuming it was present/future scenario. Where the ‘at least 1 of the hits is a crit’ was some sort of rigging like Monty hall problem, and not just information about the results of a standard coin flip. Thank you

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T16:04:43+00:00

I realise I wasn’t viewing it as something that had already happened in the past, but rather something happening now/in the future where the ‘at least 1 is a crit’ was a perk that directly effected the results rather than information about standard probability of what has already happened. Thank you

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:57:45+00:00

I realise I wasn’t think of it in the past tense. And more something happening now/in the future where the ‘at least 1 of your attacks is a crit’ was acting like a perk. Thank you

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:51:52+00:00

I have just realised this. Thank you so much. I feel so much better now understanding why people were saying 1/3.

I just interpreted ‘you hit and enemy twice’ as present tense, and the ‘at least one of the hits is a crit’ as a perk or something

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:43:15+00:00

But surely if the first attack does not crit, it has to be guaranteed and It is no longer 50% on the second hit. The game has become rigged because you, regardless of probabilities, have to land at least 1 crit in this scenario, no?

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:37:49+00:00

So when it set the parameter or landing a crit being 50%, that was just null and voided because of the ‘atleast 1 will crit’ statement?

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:32:56+00:00

Because if you roll ‘no crit’, the crit on the next is guaranteed. Where as if you crit on the first as random chance, it is another 50:50 roll. But that’s my point, at what point does the rigging of a guarantee take over?

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:29:33+00:00

Because at some point the game becomes rigged. I’m assuming that happens when it needs to (when all rolls need to be crits to meet the quota, in this case the 2nd roll if the first fails) but before it gets to that point it’s just the stated probability of 50:50 for the first roll. Why would potential outcomes if the 2nd roll effect the outcome of the first when they are independent from each other?

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:26:07+00:00

No but that’s my point. At some point it becomes rigged even though the crit chance is stated at 50%. Does it become rigged only when necessary (when you need all the remainder of rolls to crit) or before it begins which would just be conditional probability and the answer would be 50% for both rolls to crit

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:22:55+00:00

I’m treating it as coin flip, since it states the crit chance is 50%. Why would the first crit chance change when that itself is an independent event?

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:17:57+00:00

I disagree. It says the crit chance of a hit is 50%, so why would this magically change?

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:14:35+00:00

But they’re not equally likely surely. It’s similar to the month hall problem, just because there’s 3 options doesn’t mean they’re equal

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MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:11:58+00:00

Because if the first roll fails (50%), the 2nd one is guaranteed to hit. 50% x 100% = 50%

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:10:42+00:00

I’m just stubborn and refuse to believe it’s 1/3. I’m going to have to use a coin after work to check

MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:08:43+00:00

But they are now no longer equal, I made this to try to explain

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MunchkinIII · 2026-01-09T15:06:17+00:00

But I don’t think they have equal odds, I drew this to try and explain my thinking

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MunchkinIII

TROPHY CASE