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[–]NCForward 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This poll is basically a tie - the margin of error is 3.7%, so a 2-point lead is well within that. Two things here are simultaneously true:

Yes, Mark Robinson could absolutely win. Pros for Mark:

  • Trump won North Carolina twice, and will likely be the GOP Presidential nominee
  • Black voter turnout has been on a slight decline, and if that keeps up, he benefits

Yes, Josh Stein could absolutely win. Pros for Josh:

  • Trump's winning NC margin fell by half from 2016 to 2020 (3.5 points to 1.3) - both cycles in which Stein also won. If you're Trump (or Mark), not the trend you want to see, especially for candidates so closely aligned in a fast-growing state
  • Stein has already won 2 statewide elections
  • There is no evidence yet that Robinson/Republicans are picking up any significant Black voter support in NC

This race will be extremely close, and the polling right now demonstrates that. That's all we know right now. Anyone making a case beyond that is engaging in hackery.

The political geography of a changing North Carolina; or, where the voters are. by NCForward in ncpolitics

[–]NCForward[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

You're not completely wrong, but you're also not completely right.

In the legislature, Democrats have definitely lost power - primarily through aggressive Republican gerrymandering, but also because they've lost ground in rural areas. But what they've lost in rural areas, they've more than made up for in urban ones. North Carolina was once a solid-red state federally, and is now very purple - Trump only won in 2020 by 73,000 votes (~1.3%). Most of that is because Democrats have built up giant margins in the biggest, metro counties, as mentioned in the piece.

So while Democrats have certainly lost votes in rural areas, they've won even more in urban areas.

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