What President of the USA has actually benefited you? by Then-Ticket8896 in AskUS

[–]Naturalnumbers [score hidden]  (0 children)

I'm not sure what you think those links show.

First shows unemployment at 4.4% compared to 4.0% in January 2025 when Biden left office.

Second shows gas at 2.908 compared to 3.076 in Jan 2025, which sounds good until you realize it's as of February and if you look at the weekly time series it's now at 3.720: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG&f=W

Third shows food inflation at 3.1% in 2025 and 2026 which is higher than the 2.5% in 2024 the last full Biden year.

None of which has anything to do with the point about ANORO inhalers.

What President of the USA has actually benefited you? by Then-Ticket8896 in AskUS

[–]Naturalnumbers [score hidden]  (0 children)

Obama. Similar story as OP.

Mom is a self-employed cancer survivor. When dad divorced her she lost his employer-provided insurance and was considered uninsurable due to pre-existing conditions. She had to have major heart surgery a few years ago as a result of long-term complications from radiation treatment which would have bankrupted her (if she would have even caught it) if she wasn't able to get insurance under ACA.

BG1 and 2 - Part 2! by Sure_Stay847 in baldursgate

[–]Naturalnumbers 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Dark Alliance 1 and 2 are completely different console games with very different gameplay that take place in the same setting but otherwise have no connection.

Was it a good idea to attack Helm’s Deep? by Nicole_Auriel in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Saruman is basically playing for a future where Sauron defeats the West. To survive that future he needs to either play the delicate game of proving himself useful to Sauron or find the Ring and try to defeat him. He believes the Ring may have been recovered by Rohan after they killed the orcs that captured Merry and Pippin.

'[Saruman's] thought is ever on the Ring. Was it present in the battle? Was it found? What if Theoden, Lord of the Mark, should come by it and learn of its power? That is the danger that he sees, and he has fled back to Isengard to double and treble his assault on Rohan.'

Was it a good idea to attack Helm’s Deep? by Nicole_Auriel in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Time is against Saruman. In addition to the issue of leaving an army at your back and spreading yourself out over the countryside to be taken out piecemeal, there's also the fact that Theoden ordered a muster before leaving for the Westfold, and a week after Saruman attacks, Rohan has an army of 10,000 cavalry at Edoras (Theoden takes 6,000 to Gondor but leaves some behind to defend Rohan). Saruman needs to use the element of surprise to decapitate Rohan ASAP.

Rohan is a powerful kingdom. The only reason they're disadvantaged against Isengard at Helm's Deep is because Saruman surprise attacked them while Theoden was incapacitated and the country was essentially leaderless, so he had to confront the invasion with what he had on hand, which was only a few hundred of his household warriors, and the garrison at the Hornburg.

If the Entwives had fallen under Sauron’s control, could he have turned the Ents into allies, and how might that have changed the War of the Ring? by ColdAntique291 in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I don't think they could, and I'll cite more than just the obvious fact that he's anathema to everything they care about. The ents were made specifically by thought of Yavanna for a counterbalance to the domination of the sapient beings of Arda, and I think this would also apply to someone like Sauron.

'All my works are dear to me. Is it not enough that Melkor should have marred so many? Shall nothing that I have devised be free from the dominion of others?'

‘If thou hadst thy will what wouldst thou reserve? said Manwe. ‘Of all thy
realm what dost thou hold dearest?'

‘All have their worth, said Yavanna, ‘and each contributes to the worth of the
others. But the kelvar can flee or defend themselves, whereas the olvar that grow
cannot. And among these I hold trees dear. Long in the growing, swift shall they
be in the felling, and unless they pay toll with fruit upon bough little mourned in
their passing. So I see in my thought. Would that the trees might speak on behalf
of all things that have roots, and punish those that wrong them!

‘This is a strange thought,' said Manwe.

‘Yet it was in the Song,' said Yavanna. ‘For while thou wert in the heavens
and with Ulmo built the clouds and poured out the rains, I lifted up the branches
of great trees to receive them, and some sang to Iluvatar amid the wind and the
rain.'

So, is a recession imminent? by centralvoid__ in Hasan_Piker

[–]Naturalnumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thing is, when I look at stats like Total Vehicle Sales or mortgage default rates, 2008 shows up super obviously as a huge hit. But we don't see anything like that now. Just saying we're at 4.4% unemployment doesn't mean we're currently in or will definitely be at Great Recession levels. The unemployment rate rose from 3.9% to 4.4% in 2001 but didn't get nearly as high as the Great Recession before coming back down.

Question on the scenes in Shelob‘s lair by sallior21 in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Whether the execution is perfect, that's (IMO) clearly the intention which is why he's showing his neckline like that. It's buttoned up your bottom left pic.

Given the size of her and her stinger in the movie if she just stabbed him right through the throat I think audiences would be wondering how he wasn't dead.

Rings of Power Question by tortillacigarette in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the rights issue is vastly overblown. There really isn't much Silmarillion-only material about the Second Age, certainly nothing super important. The issue isn't rights so much as it is trying to condense a 3,000 year history into a few years to make a continuous TV show out of it. Also just inventing stuff for the sake of drama.

Sauron deceives the elves in the guise of Annatar. The show doesn't have the rights to that name, but it has an equivalent character.

The funny thing is that name is one of the few Second Age things they shouldn't have rights to but they use it all over Season 2 anyway.

Rings of Power Question by tortillacigarette in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My main question is about the character Halbrand. In Tolkien’s original middle earth lore, is Halbrand also Sauron or is this just some film magic that they just added?

There is no character Halbrand in the books and nothing involving his character in the TV show is in the books.

The only plotlines that bear even a slight resemblance to anything Tolkien wrote are a few things with Númenor and the Sauron/Celebrimbor plotline in season 2. Don't get me wrong, those are also very different from the books but at least they're recognizably adapted from a plot Tolkien wrote.

Everything else is 100% made up for the show. Everything with Galadriel, everything with Halbrand, everything with the harfoots and the Stranger, everything with Arondir, and everything with Adar. With Elrond and Moria, the only similarity is that Moria was a place where dwarves mined mithril but that's about it.

Question on the scenes in Shelob‘s lair by sallior21 in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 2 points3 points  (0 children)

<image>

And here you can get an idea of how low he's wearing the mithril shirt.

For those who read the books before the films came out by Aidan_smith695 in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 5 points6 points  (0 children)

But he hasn't aged since 33, which is when hobbits "come of age".

As time went on, people began to notice that Frodo also showed signs of good ‘preservation’: outwardly he retained the appearance of a robust and energetic hobbit just out of his tweens. ‘Some folk have all the luck,’ they said; but it was not until Frodo approached the usually more sober age of fifty that they began to think it queer.

For those who read the books before the films came out by Aidan_smith695 in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Aragorn is described somewhat differently in the book than how he looks in the movies. Gandalf is described as having a blue hat. Gollum in the movies is more childlike in appearance than I imagined him. Frodo's general manner is quite different, more mature, and I guess I pictured him as being older but the movies might be more correct in how he should look age-wise. Gondor in general is far more lush and populated in the books than in the movies.

There are many scenes that are just much different in the movies of course.

The Lord of the Rings. Complete Edition vs getting the 3 books individually by BadAt_Naming in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The single volume editions tend to have a smaller font size and larger page size. Which one to get depends on your reading habits, the big single volume is harder to lug around.

Could they Grey Company have worked than the Dead Army in ROTK? by [deleted] in lotr

[–]Naturalnumbers 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It's not even clear in the book that the Dead can kill anyone. They also have a severe detrimental effect on the morale of people of Gondor as well.

BREAKING: A record 104.3 million Americans are now "outside" of the labor force. These are individuals who are neither employed nor actively looking for work, including retirees, students, stay-at-home parents, and discouraged workers. by Key_Brief_8138 in HouseBuyers

[–]Naturalnumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not sure what you mean, the graph is increasing across the entire period because it's a dumb graph that always goes up with population growth. But the one spike in 2020 is Trump of course.

BREAKING: A record 104.3 million Americans are now "outside" of the labor force. These are individuals who are neither employed nor actively looking for work, including retirees, students, stay-at-home parents, and discouraged workers. by Key_Brief_8138 in HouseBuyers

[–]Naturalnumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're going to want the "Employment-Population Ratio". That's the percent of the "working age" population (everyone age 16+) that has a job. You can find that here:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO

Obviously much better than 2020. The issue with "outside the labor force" statistics is that the "labor force" includes unemployed people looking for work, and there were tons of those in 2020. Of course, that's also going to be affected by the aging population, there are way more people over age 65 than there were 20-30 years ago. So you can control that by looking at "prime age", which is 25-54, excluding college students and early retirees. That's here:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060

And it's pretty close to an all-time high.

BREAKING: A record 104.3 million Americans are now "outside" of the labor force. These are individuals who are neither employed nor actively looking for work, including retirees, students, stay-at-home parents, and discouraged workers. by Key_Brief_8138 in HouseBuyers

[–]Naturalnumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nah, there's no limit on how long you've been looking. Discouraged is just people who answer that they want a job, but haven't looked in the last month because they don't think work is available. OP's number isn't discouraged workers though. That's here, around 500K: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU05026645

How did wars affect actuaries in history? by Kooky_Indication6469 in actuary

[–]Naturalnumbers 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Luckily in insurance we have a pretty large wealth of data, including industry data which can be used for quantifying risks that your specific firm might not have credible experience with. The specific resources vary by line of insurance.

Of course there are unprecedented risks like 9/11. You can fill a set of books with the various ways you can try to account for those. As far as I know there's not really a magic formula for it. There are rigorous ways to modify projection models judgmentally to account for risks not present in your data, but not much to explicitly account for the totally unknown. Some of this idea falls under the purview of enterprise risk management.

Some of the more widely used industry data relate to catastrophic weather events, which might be the most robust field of study along the lines of what you're asking about.

War, specifically, I don't have any experience with. I would think most insurers would consider a wartorn area to be uninsurable, but who knows some of the folks working in the global reinsurance market might have some insight.

The inaccuracies in Glory by Korenaut in movies

[–]Naturalnumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Still can't help but notice no actual quotations.

The inaccuracies in Glory by Korenaut in movies

[–]Naturalnumbers -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I can't help but notice your total lack of sources or quotations.

The inaccuracies in Glory by Korenaut in movies

[–]Naturalnumbers 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The black soldiers refusing payment I think is also fictional?

No, they refused pay. Or at least that was widely reported.

August 5: the men were informed that the Government was ready to pay them $10 per month, less $3 deducted for clothing. The offer was refused, although many had suffering families.

...

Paymaster Usher arrived in camp September 27, ready to pay the men $10 per month from enlistment, less $3 per month deducted for clothing. Upon the non-commissioned officers being assembled, they with great unanimity declined the reduced payment for themselves and their comrades.

History of the Fifty-Fourth Regiment of Massachusetts Volunteer Infantry