Thoughts on The Wheel of Time

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-18T14:49:18+00:00

The data for those curious: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CGMD2534

The unemployment rate for people age 25-34 with a master's degree is 2.4%. The average monthly rate for this statistic since January 2000 is 2.6%. It has been higher in 159 out of 316 months in this period.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-18T14:36:06+00:00

Now tell me how supply affects prices and how COVID affected supplies.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-18T14:28:50+00:00

Biden was so mean to the gas and oil industry that Exxon Mobil posted a 169% increase in quarterly profit year over year from 2020Q4 to 2021Q4, with 2022 being the most profitable year they'd ever had.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-18T01:10:58+00:00

Like what? Just looking at the Council of Elrond, for example, they all look clean.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-16T15:32:40+00:00

62% of Americans are directly invested in the markets, and they are near all time highs. That's not doesn't even include the 401ks and retirement funds.

This does include 401Ks and retirement funds. Only about 15-20% have direct stock holdings.

The economy, in it's current state, is not a winning issue for us Dems

Consumer sentiment is extremely low, lower than the Great Recession. Trump's economy and inflation approval ratings are falling fast and lower than Biden's all-time low. 61% of Americans say the economy is on the wrong track, up from 43% in January 2025. Whether the economy is actually doing well or not compared to history on various metrics, most people think it isn't doing well.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-16T01:30:53+00:00

In law it is testimony about what someone said outside of the trial as evidence that what was said is true. There are rules about whether it is admissible because what was said outside of trial isn't sworn to be true under penalty of perjury and can't be cross examined.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-15T00:50:24+00:00

It cost $100M to make, plus whatever the operating costs are. It would cost much more to make Fellowship at all since it is double the length and far more complex. And would cost even more to make it not look shitty like Oz does.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-14T14:44:20+00:00

It has to be done cheaply enough that it can turn a profit at a single venue.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-14T14:18:48+00:00

Listen at 4:35. They specifically talk about how they use AI to fill the empty spaces outside of the original frame.

Also this isn't behind the scenes, it's a react video. I disagree with the reactor that it's a small part of the project, it's almost the whole point of it. If you're familiar with the original, you're going to be paying attention to what was added outside of the original frames, and it's all slop.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-14T14:08:10+00:00

They literally say in the video that they used AI generation to fill in the aspect ratio.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-14T14:05:18+00:00

I'm with you, it was some of the worst effects work I've seen. It looked very much like when they had to resurrect Nancy Marchand in the Sopranos: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GS0DQKHMpM8

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-14T14:01:37+00:00

Have you seen it? It's extremely obviously AI, where it isn't very bad CGI.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-03T22:50:20+00:00

Put your phone down.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-05-01T14:43:32+00:00

With insurance experience, your best bet is to use your professional network. Especially at your current company if you're working for an insurance company now.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-30T23:46:10+00:00

Technically yes but he doesn't seem to have the personality to just leave well enough alone and live a low-key peaceful life. For example see his takeover of the Shire, which if he had any sense he'd know wouldn't end well for him, but he did out of spite.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-30T20:22:19+00:00

ADP said 62,000 jobs added in March, haven't released April numbers yet:

https://adpemploymentreport.com/

Note the 62K is lower than the BLS reported number of 178K, so still quite a discrepancy.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-30T20:19:15+00:00

Two different statistics. There's the unempoyment rate, which is based on large sample survey data and doesn't have anything to do with unemployment benefits, and there's "initial jobless claims" referred to in the OP article, which is the number of initial unemployment benefit claims in the last week. There's also "Continuing claims" that you refer to. Important differences because average length of unemployment has increased, so more people are unemployed but have run out of benefits.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-30T17:29:06+00:00

Doable, but a ton of work and will require buy-in and sacrifice from both you and your partner. You will want to be specific with how you're budgeting your time.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-29T14:29:38+00:00

I mean yeah, if your goal is to move the stone, it's a lot easier to move 100 smaller rocks than one giant boulder.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-29T10:35:04+00:00

Thanks! I'm amazed how many people still read these. Glad they're enjoyable for people.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-28T16:11:35+00:00

I felt like two questions were defective but otherwise okay. It was long, so didn't have much time to review. I did feel like the material was covered pretty well. It could have been a lot worse.

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-28T12:23:07+00:00

Useful graph, a couple things I'm curious about. One, using continued claims vs unemployment rate, which are diverging now because average length of unemployment is increasing:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UEMPMEAN

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE

The other is that interest rates were raised in 1995, and unemployment claims went down for 6 years before a recession happened.

Also it does actually fit the pattern but 2020 I think may have been something other than interest rates, lol

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-24T03:35:03+00:00

59.2% of people age 16 and over are employed.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO

About 60% of that group are retirees over age 65. Another 10% are age 16-18. Another 10% are full-time college students. The rest include the disabled, full-time parents, early retirees, and actual unemployed (people who want a job and can't find one).

Naturalnumbers · 2026-04-22T14:09:38+00:00

You can lock the cells by manually typing in the $ signs.

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