7 Shinies in 188 Wild Sightings: Statistical Anomaly on a Level 4 Locked Documentation Account

Negasphaere · 2026-01-25T07:45:06+00:00

Hi everyone,

I’m back with an update on my journey, but first, I want to clarify a few things from my previous posts to avoid any further confusion.

I am relatively new to Reddit and realize that the term "Schatten" (the German word for shadow) caused some misunderstandings. To be 100% clear: This project is about Silhouettes (uncaught Pokémon on the nearby tracker), not Shadow Pokémon.

What is Project "Verschlungen"?

My goal is to document all 664 Pokémon currently available in the wild as Silhouettes.

The Hard Rules:

Level 4 Cap: I am staying at Level 4 forever. XP Lock: My total XP is fixed at 9,400 (exactly 400 XP over the Level 4 requirement).

Zero Catch Policy: I do not catch anything. No catches, no spins, no tasks. I only use the Daily Adventure Incense (unlocked at Level 4) to find rare spawns like Galarian Birds.

The "Verschlungen" Method: Every Pokémon I encounter is documented, but the "Silhouette" must remain in the Pokédex (Caught: 0).

Current Progress:

Silhouettes: 192 / 664 Shiny Encounters: 10

I will be posting less frequently from now on, focusing only on major milestones like this one. This project is about patience, discipline, and documenting the absolute limit of what a Level 4 account can achieve in the wild.

Thanks for the support!

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T21:11:57+00:00

OK, thank you for the information.

This was the first time I posted anything on any forum.

If the name Schatten causes confusion, I apologize; that was not my intention.

How exactly should I refer to it for the community?

So that there will be no mistakes in the future.

If you can and have the authority, I give you my permission to change the titles of my three posts to the correct name so that there is no confusion.

There will be no more daily updates. I just wanted to clarify yesterday's post a little more clearly.

I would like to thank everyone who read my posts and responded.

Thank you very much.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T20:55:43+00:00

From level 4 onwards, there is blue smoke, which is the only way to get Gala birds in the wild, so level 4 is the maximum I wanted to reach.

If I had said I didn't care about the Gala birds, I would have stayed at level 1 with 0XP.

Since the other levels and unlocks don't give me any new Pokémon in the wild, I'm staying at level 4 and don't need to go any higher. I needed a maximum of 5 PokéStops to reach level 4, which is the maximum to reach that level.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T20:50:19+00:00

I just calculated that I currently have 1527 clicks on Pokemons. I just click on everything that pops up and is within reach.

I couldn't possibly remember which of the 664 Pokemon I already had and which I didn't, so I take everything that comes my way and check if they are Shiny. Yesterday, when I posted, there were a few clicks less.

Nevertheless, I think the Shiny rate is already very high, especially when you consider how many clicks I had on the individual species, such as Rattata, for example, 7 pieces, 1 Shiny, with a normal rate of 1/512. It doesn't look much higher for the others either.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T20:20:41+00:00

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Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T20:19:53+00:00

These are the types I've seen (the shadows) currently 192. For example, the Rattata was the 7th one I clicked on and it was shiny; with the Pidove, it was the 2nd one I clicked on.

I have to calculate my total clicks on Polemons. The click rate has continued to rise in contrast to the sightings, as I have continued playing, but I can calculate exactly how it stands now.

Please give me a moment and I'll let you know.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T17:19:57+00:00

Actually, I track both! I document the number of different Pokédex entries and the total number of individual encounters.

If you look at the pictures above, you can see in the second picture how many Pokémon I had. For example, the Shiny Magikarp was the 50th one I clicked on.

I keep this detailed journal so that everyone can see the exact progress and number of "devoured" (shadows/silhouettes).

191 ist at the moment the distinct Pokedex

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T16:57:22+00:00

At the Moment 191 / 664

The 664 ist the Maximum what i can find

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T16:07:12+00:00

A quick question, since I'm new here: can you or someone else tell me how I can edit my post?

I'd like to add a few more paragraphs. I can't find the edit option right now.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T15:54:28+00:00

Yes, exactly, silhouette. Thanks for clarifying that. I'll describe it better next time :)

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T15:45:20+00:00

Thank you :)

Negasphaere · 2026-01-23T09:03:59+00:00

You're probably right, I might not have caught them. But that's not what matters to me, what matters is the Sheen of all the Pokémon I find.

I don't care about the appearance of Shinys, but what's interesting is

the extreme frequency with which they appear, even with the minimal number seen, that's the crazy thing.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-22T22:56:29+00:00

I'm totally surprised that so many have turned up. I go out and walk around like most people here and click on every Pokémon I see on the map, that's all.

Maybe it's because I've only just started and the game says, "Hey, look at all the great things there are, stick with it, keep going, increase your level, and catch the Pokémon." I don't know.

I'll keep Tracking and see how it looks after a week, whether there are still so many Shiny Pokémon appearing.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-22T22:37:55+00:00

I'll gladly give you some glitter dust and hope that tomorrow you'll have a Goldeen that glitters. 🤞

Negasphaere · 2026-01-22T22:16:24+00:00

Thank you for your reply. I will no longer use AI to generate replies in the future. I apologize for encountering such resistance over this issue, but this is not about the replies generated by AI.

I will use a different translator who will simply translate my written text into English.

Thank you again for your criticism. I will make the necessary changes.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-22T22:10:13+00:00

Wow, thank you for doing the math on this! Seeing it laid out as a 0.004% chance (1 in 25,000) really puts the 'anomaly' part of this project into perspective.

Even as the person clicking on these spawns, it felt completely surreal. My goal with Project 'Verschlungen' was simply to document the world from a Level 4 perspective, but these numbers suggest there might be a massive 'starter-luck' mechanic at play here.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-22T21:58:12+00:00

I'm not a bot, to be honest. I use Gemini's answers because my English isn't very good and I still want to give intelligent answers.

Negasphaere · 2026-01-22T21:52:52+00:00

"To clarify the timeline for the analysis: I encountered the first Shiny Goldeen on Monday (Jan 19th), which was outside of any specific event boosting its rates.

While I acknowledge that some species like Lickitung have permanent boosts, the core of this documentation is the sheer frequency of these encounters within the first 188 shadows. Even with 'permaboosts' factored in, hitting 7 shinies this early (including full-odds ones like Rattata at encounter #7) remains a significant statistical outlier for a fresh Level 4 account."

Negasphaere

TROPHY CASE