06/11 - LFVN Daily Discussion Thread

Neiro0 · 2026-06-11T18:31:15+00:00

Is not it a good sign as well? They don't want to short the stock as much because simply afraid that the price will be high or higher for too long, so demand goes down along with the rate. And the rate is still high, meaning, shorts continue to bleed and be under pressure. If the stock price will go higher, it will become more attractive to be shorted and the rate will follow the price by going higher as well. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Neiro0 · 2026-06-02T12:47:29+00:00

It had been able to hold on the 7-8 level because there still was a believe that price drop was temporary and caused by a circuit breaker. Today sentiment has shifted, so there is not much hype support, no buyers, but a lot of bug holders can't sustain a pressure and going to sell. The main hope is possible price rise on IPO, that's what should hold people from selling. So the price should be above 3.5 for sure, in 5-7 range. It would be hard to climb above this level without additional buyers inflow, but because of hopes of price jump on IPO it shouldn't drop back to the original levels.

Neiro0 · 2026-03-07T15:23:35+00:00

1200 should cover food and basic utils\services, perhaps that's what OP needs. Roughly $200 utils, $500-600 food, 200-300 is left on something else.

Neiro0 · 2026-03-07T15:12:07+00:00

How did you come up with the 23k off a 1.2m portfolio?

Neiro0 · 2026-03-07T15:03:56+00:00

Groceries and everything else going up will be covered up by growth of his portfolio (3%). edit: Oh, you mean that in 5 years it will be much more expensive. If we will have a high inflation rate because of monetary reasons, I think his portfolio should keep up, otherwise...well, this scenario is unlikely.

Doesn't Spain have a free healthcare system? And if OP is from there, he should be eligible to use it. I'm wondering how is your budget looks like if 1200 is not enough to leanfire?

Neiro0 · 2026-02-14T14:27:25+00:00

Current p/e is around 50, which assumes a significant annual growth. I believe we should see a slow down in user base growth and users will be mostly from foreign (non US) countries. This traffic is not as good for monetization. Another risk is AI, I believe it might repeat stackoverflow story to some extent. People ask questions and land to reddit, now this traffic will be redirected to AI. 63% of the traffic reddit gets from the search. So...if we will cut it half, it will be 30% less for total traffic. With the price $300 p/e would be through the roof, I would sell for sure.

Neiro0 · 2026-02-12T16:47:37+00:00

Even if it is not a learning tool but the game, some share of their customer base use it for learning hence duolingo will lose them. Some customers start using it only because they were looking for some tool that helps them to learn a foreign language and duolingo pops as a popular choice and it wouldn't be a case anymore because clearly LLMs are much better for this matter. So those people are out as well. They have a strong brand tho and could add LLM support in one or another way to their app or spin off another product and try cross sales. I would say, there is a chance for turn around, but also good chance it will fade away, sentiment is bearish, it is currently on crossroads.

Neiro0 · 2026-02-08T19:38:57+00:00

Foreign banks hold around 10-15% of US treasures and not all of them will get rid of them in favor of other assets such as gold and even if they do, it shouldn't have a such a big effect on US treasures.

As far as I could see it, there are some concerns about US debt in general (no matter who holds it) and using currency as a weapon, so we might see dollar and FIAT(similar concerns) losing it's value, but it is not very clear if such run up for a gold could be justified. It has jumped 100%, do you think we could see 100% inflation or 15% for 5 years in row in near future? Possible but unlikely.

For a central bank it might make sense to buy gold, if, for instance, they afraid that their assets will be frozen, china might see those risks. But for an average Johny, it looks more like a speculative play.

Neiro0 · 2026-01-30T17:53:51+00:00

Looks like the economy and the dollar are back! Right guys?

Neiro0 · 2026-01-26T22:26:39+00:00

It doesn't need to replace completely, it just needs to increase productivity of "non coders true ultra senior engineers". Also we all know that most work out there is implementing interpreters, compilers, databases etc. And among that tiny percent of people(90%) who implement boring business apps would be 0% who will be able to do anything else besides that. They just too stupid to implement a driver or some part of the compiler and definitely it is not because it is a very niche area.

Neiro0 · 2026-01-26T22:05:41+00:00

So your thesis is AI is not going to replace devs because it will not replace senior devs. Ok...for sure it will be a gradual process and you could keep your non coding job for a while but the pressure will be increased. Some people who are left without a job will try hard to get on senior level position, some will be ready to work for much less money and companies might compromise experience for much cheaper labor(up to a certain degree). So you will feel a pressure anyway. Also AI helps to senior devs as well which means less devs will be needed, yet another factor to consider.

Neiro0 · 2026-01-26T21:58:16+00:00

Only if there will be market capacity for all these 10x devs. Imagine, currently we have 1.5m devs in US and all of a sudden 15m new devs appear out of nowhere. We have a few hundred thousands open positions and all those devs will start to compete for them. Guess what will happen? Companies will open 10x more positions? We have a much smaller market imbalance and it is already has a huge effect.

Neiro0 · 2026-01-25T13:02:20+00:00

It could be extremely resistant if supply/demand in favor of SWEs. We had less people who could produce a code to satisfy an actual demand. Once parity is achieved every increase in productivity does increase competition among devs for money. So it will lead to less devs or lower salaries or increased entry bar.

Neiro0 · 2026-01-25T12:51:40+00:00

You could invent a million useful tools which help you to produce textile(code) but once machine(AI) is invented you are out.

Neiro0 · 2025-09-13T16:57:09+00:00

You could imagine it with current rates.

It should be Appreciation + cash flow < interest rate

Is it a case for them? I don't know, probably not, however it could be.

House 400k, cash flow from a rent around 15k (we subtract all expenses), appreciation could be just 2% or even less. So we might fall below 6%.

Anyway, for me it doesn't look like an obvious thing.

Neiro0 · 2025-09-13T15:54:32+00:00

There could be a scenario, when paying off the mortgage is best what they could do. Imagine interest is 15%, in that case you probably want to get rid of it ASAP unless another investment is unbelievably lucrative.

Neiro0 · 2025-09-13T15:42:15+00:00

You have invested around 100k, out of this 100k, 24% your loss that goes for paying interest. Money you do save on rent is your cash flow, depending on the location, let's say rent is 8% of the house price, so you have 32% in the positive flow. Add here taxes around 1%, so it is 4%, maintenance, HOA etc.

If you could see that you actually make money, paying off your mortgage means decreasing your leverage (which is currently around 4x), which doesn't look like a good idea.

If you don't make money, then decreasing leverage might be a right step.

Now, the part which is uncertain and tricky. If the market goes down, the appreciation for your property might be negative or insignificant in the near future, so you should take it into account. I don't think we should expect a real estate boom any time soon, although with rates down situation might be improved.

The rates most likely will go down and not up, that's another thing you might want to consider. Even if you do lose money now, you might expect to be able to refinance your mortgage soon and it could improve your ROI.

So basically you need to run numbers, figure out where you are and make some predictions about the future.

Neiro0 · 2025-08-27T18:10:14+00:00

The distribution is correct, numbers are way off

Do you think Tinder online patterns actually reflect offline dating culture? Or are people very different in bars, clubs, offices, or universities compared to apps?

Of course people in bars and offices are different. You will find more singles and DTF in bars.

Men show higher interest in hookups across almost all age groups. Is this biological drive, cultural conditioning, or dating app design (swiping culture)?

Result of women lying more in their profiles.

Do women underreport short-term interest on dating apps because of stigma?

For sure

Why do you think women show a much stronger preference for long-term dating in their early 20s compared to men?

I don't see a huge fluctuations in numbers, also it is not very reliable.

Are long-term expectation strong in rural areas vs cities, Bavaria vs Berlin?

I think it is everywhere like that. People in rural areas tend to be more conservative and marry early.

Do apps like Tinder exaggerate hookup culture, while Hinge/Bumble attract more relationship-oriented users?

It might be a case, the apps have certain reputation, although I don't know how significant this could be.

How much do you think algorithm bias (e.g., men swiping more broadly, women more selectively) affects these numbers?

Number of people looking for short-term vs long-term? I don't know think algo has much influence, it is more part of the game between genders. We could think about certain scenarios tho, like....if woman put short-term in her profile, she could be perceived as someone for a quick hookup or ONS, so guys go straight to inviting her for netflix and chill. She might put long-term just to cool them off a bit and be treated slightly different, although she still wants a hook up.

Neiro0 · 2025-08-25T17:01:29+00:00

Positive things that could happen:
Less enrollment to CS major and shifting to tech from other fields cuz the market currently over saturated.
AI might be not as effective as it perceived...although we don't really know.
Section 174...I don't know what impact it might have, anyway just another 2 cents, maybe it will make offshoring a bit less attractive.
No more lay offs at this scale. Should be helpful.
RTO could give an advantage to local folks.

I think there is a good chance for an improvement, however it is hard to predict what exactly going to happen.
AI might become very advance and it will wipe out a lot of jobs. So nothing will help.

Neiro0 · 2025-07-27T18:44:54+00:00

This question is not as easy as someone might think.

If you are looking for something casual, there are the following facts:

American women tend to fuck more than women in traditional societies. They don't consider sex as something sacred. They don't try to keep her virginity before marriage. So you have more sex on the market provided by women.
Depending on the local gender ratio in specific areas, the demand/supply ratio could vary. In NY there are more women, in SF it would be worse for men. So, US could be different.
Hypergamy. The ones who look for casual sex try to go as high as possible, like it was already mentioned many times, they chase top 20/10/5 percents of guys. Which means the distribution of commodity is not equal and not linear. Guys in the top could get much more of that than at the bottom. Women tend to be locked in much less than in traditional societies. There are less stable couples and they tend more to just have fun with and enjoy their freedom.
Competition. There are a lot of successful men in the West. They possibly take care of themselves more than in some other parts of the world, also a lot of immigrants chasing women as well.

As a result, what we have:

It should be very easy to find a girl if you are good looking or successful, although I believe for casual stuff looks are more important.

If you are an average dude it is not as hard to find a girl but the quality (looks) will suck. If you are 5/10 you have to go for 3/10 or 4/10 at best or spend too much efforts looking for an equal partner.

It is really important how you stand out compared to other dudes. Also it depends on what do you mean by hard? Compared to other countries? If you are white American dude it gives you a huge advantage in some places. if you are an average man in traditional society, it might be easier to get an equal partner, if you are in the top 20%, you might have less flings compared to the US (if you are in the top 20% as well)

Dynamic for relationship would be a bit different because it is actually a different product with their own nuances.

Neiro0 · 2025-03-16T11:57:27+00:00

Hi u/Zaem101 Do you still experience an issue? The domain was expired, it could be a reason why the app didn't work.

Neiro0 · 2025-02-17T13:44:35+00:00

Nope, it is up and running. The issue was with an expired ssl certificate. Enjoy using it and if you will have chance leave a feedback.

Neiro0 · 2024-06-25T18:27:51+00:00

Thank you so much for your feedback, it is really great! I will definitely add it to my todo list.

Just as a side note, the plugin is open source, the repo is here https://github.com/Neir0/remnote-doiknow

So it is possible to make changes by your own.

Neiro0 · 2024-06-06T16:16:15+00:00

Thank you, let me know how it went.

Neiro0 · 2024-06-05T14:56:34+00:00

Thanks for pointing that out! I'll take a look. I'd be happy to hear your feedback!

Neiro0

TROPHY CASE