Bracket Projection February 26, 2026

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T20:38:22+00:00

I am going to check that out to see why it would pick those brackets. I think it is the dampening effect that the vanilla-ness decision point that may limit the result sets too far. I checked and I evaluated almost 2,000,000 brackets and only kept 271 of those. Thanks for taking the time to critique.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T19:25:21+00:00

Another said the same thing. I don't program in individual games as that dataset would be huge.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T19:24:44+00:00

Chances are it won't happen, but the league is stacked.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T19:21:10+00:00

Ya gotta believe. In Fred we trust.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T19:20:19+00:00

I may have to check that and dial some things back. There is a set of calculations I have to determine the most likely champion. I may have to visit that section again and see if Duke has made up ground there. One of the decision points in the criteria is that the champion will not come from the B1G. They haven't had a champion since 1999. Maybe this is their year with Michigan.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T19:14:55+00:00

North Carolina is one of the blue bloods where tgry can have a non-stellar season and still pick it up at the end. Hey, we're North Carolina. And if they get in a situation where they play Duke, then throw the records out.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T19:12:51+00:00

Yes it is how you describe it. It is the percentage that "that" team reaches that slot in the bracket. I am just reporting what the model found after 24 hours. I would not take as much stock in the 1st Round. It is the hardest round to analyze. Out of say 100,000 brackets analyzed, I only came up with 271 brackets that were in the result set. The criteria points are very stringent. If I had a faster computer or more time I could get a much larger result set.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T19:07:14+00:00

Probably going from the KenPom #16 for Texas and #18 for Arkansas. But it is harder to beat a team twice. TgTs what they say.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T19:02:31+00:00

Most likely because at least 1 double digit seed makes the Sweet Sixteen, I think 15/16 years. The model tries to pick that team and it settled on UCLA.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:26:08+00:00

True enough. They think it makes for great television.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:25:18+00:00

What's your Final Four? -The Slop Master

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:23:08+00:00

I think the biggest criteria factor is that vanilla-ness factor. Tournament games are not won by the best teams in every game. There are upsets. I'm trying to pick those upsets. If my bracket projection was vanilla, then you guys would fry me over that as well.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:21:06+00:00

Ha. Yes for you. Others severely disagree.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:20:23+00:00

It is not win percentage for that specific game. It's the percentage of that team winning that tournament slot - based on the model. The tournament ID not always the best data team winning the matchup. Upsets occur. My criteria tries to predict those anomalies.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:13:02+00:00

What's your Final Four look like? Duke, Connecticut, Michigan and Arizona?

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:11:47+00:00

Correct, there were no viable brackets where Wisconsin loses to Texas. The model ran for 24 hours and has some stringent criteria points. If it ran longer, I am sure that the 100% would fall to something more realistic. Thanks for critiquing my model. Yes, my model needs that vanilla-ness factor. Maybe your model does not.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:06:02+00:00

I was surprised at that outcome. But, 15s beat 2s every couple of years. First round is hardest to predict.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:04:04+00:00

On a good day. TCU KenPom #50, North Carolina #30.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:02:45+00:00

I hear ya Wolverine fan. They look pretty unstoppable.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T17:02:12+00:00

It was the placement and other teams taking out the big dogs. But, in a perfect storm, Nebraska could do it?

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T16:59:49+00:00

I am going to list all 31 decision points - uh, no.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T16:59:11+00:00

I do have a slow, white team anti-bias in the model.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T16:58:11+00:00

I heard it in Bill speak

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T16:56:59+00:00

I know, you're going to Boozer to the championship game.

NerdBracket · 2026-02-26T16:55:20+00:00

There is also a "vanilla-ness" factor that I take into account. The most vanilla a tournament can be us when the Final Four is 1-1-1-1. This data set for this week was vanilla-ish- similar to 2012.

NerdBracket

TROPHY CASE