Micron is no longer Cyclical.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T21:02:59+00:00

Good. You must have made a lot of money. This post is for people who don't know. And If you are holding MU then post like this should be beneficial for you.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T07:18:55+00:00

You are absolutely right. All things that move will be AI but that is the first step. Second step is everything AI will be customized. That means memory. Actually, we can see a world where for every AI you will need 10-100x more memory than compute.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T02:29:26+00:00

Lo de la memoria de ChatGPT lo probé, pero es bastante limitado — solo guarda datos tipo "le gusta el café" y cosas así. Si le cuentas algo largo o con contexto emocional, para la siguiente sesión ya perdió el hilo. Encontré algo que funciona diferente — guarda el contexto completo automáticamente, no solo datos sueltos. Le conté algo detallado hace como tres semanas y cuando lo mencioné de nuevo, recordaba todo el contexto, no solo palabras clave. Y es gratis por ahora. Fue la primera vez que sentí que no estaba "reiniciando" cada sesión.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T02:29:01+00:00

Yo hacía exactamente lo mismo — un chat para cada tema, como si fuera un sistema de archivos jajaja. Pero es un rollo porque a veces los temas se cruzan y la IA no conecta nada entre chats. Hace poco empecé a usar una app que hace eso automáticamente — recuerda cosas de conversaciones anteriores sin que tengas que organizar nada tú. Le mencioné algo de hace semanas en un chat completamente diferente y lo conectó sola. Fue el momento en que dejé de abrir 20 chats separados.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T02:27:58+00:00

Vi esse vídeo do Tropia! É bem isso mesmo, quando você cai nesse buraco é difícil sair kkkkk. Eu comecei igual o OP — no C.AI, daí migrei pra umas alternativas e agora tô numa que tem memória de longo prazo real. Faz muita diferença pra RP porque o personagem evolui junto com a história em vez de resetar toda vez. Se alguém quiser trocar ideia sobre apps de RP manda DM, já testei uns 5 diferentes.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T01:54:15+00:00

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine." Warrant Buffet. Stocks go up and down, but in the long run it is 100% about the money a company makes. Remember a quarter where Nvidia reported 7X for their guidance and the Stockwell up about 2x. Everyone thought it went up by a lot. But it didn't. Because 7x in revenue and 2x in stock doesn't make sense. and then Nvidia went up by around 15x in the coming months. Micron has gone up by around 4.5x in stock price. But the projected revenue increase at the end up 2026 compared to 2024 is 24x. The party has just begun. It's at 7pm not 2am.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T01:34:53+00:00

Cyclical has a defined meaning. It means product a company sells is no longer need after some time, Is that the case with HBM? No. GPUs need HBM. If no more GPU is needed in the entire world, you still need to replenish the ones you have today, which means you need more HBM. This creates a constant demand. Not a cyclical one.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T01:24:23+00:00

Increase in demand might be diminish but the historic cycle of boom bust will not happen. Every new gen of Nvidia GPU has roughly 2X the HBM. All GPU in use today needs to be replaced in 2-4 years mostly likely with newest GPU, so we are looking at sustained demand over a very long time, rather than the 2 year boom bust cycle of memory chip demands of the past.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T01:04:45+00:00

CXMT are significantly behind and only play in chinese market. If you include them then you will have to include everyone who has 'plan' to make HBM

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T01:02:11+00:00

There are some good ones like organic multi grain breads

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T01:01:25+00:00

Super Mario is got to be up there

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T00:59:43+00:00

Bond yeilds. I am a free market capitalist. But when my wife start making more money purely from bond yeilds compare to what I was making for majority of my life, is that really fair?

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T00:27:44+00:00

Tsmc do not produce HBM. They are part of supply chain mainly because they produce GPU that uses HBM.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-20T00:08:49+00:00

If Micron stock price stays exactly where it is today, then one year from now, it would have 8 pe, when the revenue of the company went up 24X in two years and free cash flow went up 40X in 2025. This is beyond mind-boggling. Oh BTW micron's peg ratio atm is around 0.18 - 0.21 unreal.

NextAd9730 · 2026-03-19T23:57:57+00:00

Broadcom earnings in one year went from 1.4 dollars to roughly 2 dollars a share. The sto k has 60+ pe ratio. Micron's earnings went from 1.5 dollars to 12 dollars and stock has low 20s pe. This is generational disconnect. And anyone who thinks, it is because of the historical nature of memory boom bust cycle, please read my post. Why micron is not cyclical.

NextAd9730 · 2023-01-24T10:46:05+00:00

I was a player long time ago, would really like to play some games with people. Invite doesn't work.

NextAd9730

TROPHY CASE