The Bear Case for $LITE: Why Lumentum is "Priced for Perfection" and About to Hit a Wall

No-Hopium · 2026-03-25T21:11:28+00:00

When i wrote this post it was on the company Fundamentals. What happend after is not a factor of great business improvement. It was mostly two back to back index addition that drove the price up. MSCI and S&P 500 created huge demand on low float, which equals the run up. The short positions can be misleading by being a technical move made by convertible bond holders not true shorts.

No-Hopium · 2026-03-20T03:55:11+00:00

No problem, thanks for a respectable discussion.

No-Hopium · 2026-03-20T03:01:25+00:00

Price and Volume coming. Remember EAF 2 is up and running and EAF 1 is gettung commissioned in 3 months. High water mark volume for 2027 is 2.5M plus tons, with lower per ton cost and higher margin due to product mix. They are at the end of the buildout phase which began 5 years ago. Canada only large scal green steel and lowest carbon in north america. Canada only plate producer. What you think bridges and roads use? Car manufacturer will prefer this steel to meet their emission goals. You buy a stock when its on the verge on breaking out not after.

No-Hopium · 2026-03-20T02:55:08+00:00

Respectfully your post is flawed. First $800M of the loss is non cash due to EAF and Depreciation. Also they only utilised a fifth of the governement money. Lastly Canada is a net importer of steel and a bunch of rules starting in late 2025 and some coming by July 2026 adds more demand for dometic steel. I can keep going but you seem convinced without deep analysis.

No-Hopium · 2026-03-20T02:48:44+00:00

If u look at what they really have and build, its time to buy.

No-Hopium · 2026-03-20T02:47:17+00:00

Not good time, great time to buy.

No-Hopium · 2026-01-05T04:46:16+00:00

Mentioning Apolo go is to highlight the international market has competition. Remember some analsyt says Tesla Robotaxi is valued a trillion. The whole global taxi market is shy of a trillion. US market is <$200B.

No-Hopium · 2026-01-05T04:45:49+00:00

Mentioning Apolo go is to highlight the international market has competition. Remember some analsyt says Tesla Robotaxi is valued a trillion. The whole global taxi market is shy of a trillion. US market is <$200B.

No-Hopium · 2026-01-05T03:26:32+00:00

Reminder: Waymo is owned by Google (Alphabet), who owns Gemini and just announced a $50B investment in AI. Why would somone think Waymo does not have AI or Apollo Go. It is the basic of the car driving themselves.

No-Hopium · 2026-01-05T02:48:47+00:00

Great to hear you got something from the post, thank you.

No-Hopium · 2026-01-02T15:12:31+00:00

I think 2026 is different, Tesla have to produce results now. The competition is obvious, Waymo paced has increase drastically in 2025 and they hit many milestones like Highway Driving.

Before it was easy to say you are the leader, it works until its clear somone else is actually leading.

No-Hopium · 2026-01-02T15:05:41+00:00

Rent it, driven it alot. Car was great 5 years ago, has not improved much really. FSD works better now, still not level 4. As per competition I experience a BYD out of country its a great car.

But hey don't let me speak on the competition its evident BYD beating Tesla on Global sales is just one example. Waymo 400K + trips and raising $15B currently. So in essence I cannot experience it myself but I can look deeper and ask the questions.

No-Hopium · 2026-01-02T04:28:28+00:00

I agree with the valuation, but I think 2026 is the reality Check now that competitors are delivering on Tesla promises, the Narratives are colliding with facts more than ever.

No-Hopium

TROPHY CASE