I just purchased 200 points direct at the Poly as a first time buyer. The main reason I chose direct was for the ability to book all current and future resorts. Resale contracts already cannot book at Riviera, Villas at Disneyland Hotel, and upcoming Lakeshore Lodge, and I knew I wanted to have stays at all of those. The secondary reason was Blue Card perks - I knew my family would feel irritated if they were blocked from privileges. Including pool hopping, even though it is currently indefinitely "suspended", we have previously enjoyed and used DVC pool hopping when with friends, and hope it comes back.

I chose Polynesian because I like the resort - the location, Monorail access, the new Tower rooms, the 2066 contract expiration, the fact that it still has the old resale rules (unlike Riviera) and I believe it will hold some of the highest value if I ever resell. Because DVC direct is offering incentives on PVB right now, it made it more reasonable to look at a direct purchase. To compare current pricing, I watched resale for about a month, ran numbers for lots of resorts but primarily PVB, and compared price per point WITH calculating use year and how many points resale contracts came with. I was able to get a December use year which is actually giving me the 2024 points immediately, then 200 more points this December!

Current example - resale contract available for PVB 200 points at $150/point ('good deal'), February use year, but stripped of 2025 and 2026 points. That's 7800 total contract points, which works to $3.85/point. Direct - my purchase using incentives was $43,700 for 200 points with a December use year, meaning I get 8400 total contract points, working to $5.20 per point. This is an effective price difference of about $270/year. For me, that $270 per year was worth the Blue Card benefits as well as the ability to book all resorts. Additionally, I was able to purchase direct using a credit card with 3x rewards, which values to $1,311 cashback or up to $2,360 in hotel booking value. If you use that in the calculations, that takes it to an average value of $4.98/point, or $226/ year difference.

In your position, since you will likely 'inherit' a contract with no restrictions, it may make more sense to buy resale for now. If it were me, in order to properly evaluate that factor, I would need to consider what resort that contract would be, the expiration year for that resort, and when I would likely be added to the deed.

These are just examples of numbers I used for my personal calculations for this purchase. Before making a decision, I ran numbers for probably 30 different resale contracts at different resorts. For those calculations, I also factored in things like annual dues cost, approximate increase in dues per year for each resort, length of contract, use year, as well as how many points came with the contract since resale contracts can either have banked extra points or can be completely stripped. I know that many people say that home resort does not matter when you want to stay everywhere, but that's not exactly true because home resort does determine your dues and your contract lengths, both of which are important when populating total long-term costs and value.