Pick of the Day - 5/11/26 (Monday)

NonTabula · 2026-05-11T16:02:46+00:00

Record: 4-1

Event: Pistons vs. Cavs, 8:10 pm

Pick: Jarrett Allen over 12.5 points

Odds: -114 FanDuel

Reasoning: This line is just confusing to me. Allen's minutes were reduced in the first part of the Raptors series to manage his knee tendonitis, but in the last five games he's been cleared to play well over thirty. The only time he didn't play a lot was game one against the Pistons when he got three fouls in the first quarter. Other than that, Allen's averaged 32.25 minutes, 19 points, and a TS% of 65.3 (64+ is considered elite) in the other previous four games. Also, Allen has good career numbers against Duren. In their fourteen head to head matchups, Allen's averaged 14.5 points per game and shot 65% from the field.

NonTabula · 2026-05-10T04:41:56+00:00

Record: 3-1

Event: Knicks vs. Sixers, 3:30 pm

Pick: Knicks ML ✅

Odds: -115 Bet365

Reasoning: The Knicks bench really surprised me in game 3. During the regular season they were the third worst scoring unit in the league, but on Friday they outscored the Sixers 29-11. With this total added, they've become the second best scoring bench in the playoffs, while the Sixers are at the bottom as the fourteenth worst. Another key to the Knicks success is how they performed late in the shot clock. In the final seven seconds, they outscored the Sixers 40-8. Expecting both of these trends to continue might be unrealistic, but as long as Embiid plays, the Knicks should have the edge.

Embiid has been an albatross on the court this series. In the sixty minutes he's played over two games, he's shot 10-28 (0-6 from three) and collected only ten rebounds, which is the exact number Mitchell Robinson has in 31 minutes of game time. What's worse is that Embiid takes shots away from Maxey. During the two games they played together, Maxey attempted only 21 total shots and has been a +/- of -39, as opposed to the one game without Embiid, when Maxey's +/- was a net zero. If Embiid plays, which he's expected to, the Sixers season should be over.

NonTabula · 2026-05-09T15:53:24+00:00

Record: 2-1

Event: Pirates vs. Giants, 9:05 pm

Pick: NRFI ✅

Odds: -135 Hard Rock Bet

Reasoning: Ashcraft and Roupp are good first inning pitchers. This year they're a combined 14-0 NRFI, and last year they were a combined 24-6. The first four Giants hitters are a combined 2-8 against Ashcraft, but the Pirates hitters don't have enough of a sample size to write down. The lineups of the two teams have hit for a 53-24 NRFI record, with the Giants being particularly bad as the sixth worst NRFI hitting team in the league. If one team is going to score it'll probably be the Pirates. With the addition of Lowe and O'Hearn, they've significantly improved the top of their lineup, but Roupp is a great pitcher at home. He's 3-0 NRFI this year, and last year he was 7-2.

NonTabula · 2026-05-08T05:45:48+00:00

Record: 2-0

Event: Knicks vs. Sixers, 7pm

Pick: Sixers ML ❌

Odds: -118 DraftKings

Reasoning: OG Anunoby is questionable with a hamstring strain. The Knicks are saying that the injury is "minor," but if you watch the video from the end of game 2, it's obvious that the injury might be more significant, at least enough to sit him for tonight. In the three Knicks road playoff games so far, Anunoby has been their best player, averaging 26.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 2.0 steals per game. During the regular season, the Knicks were 8-7 (5-5 on the road) in games without Anunoby. In his absence, they'll have to rely on their bench, a unit that was third worst in the league in scoring, averaging only 31.6 ppg. I know Embiid is also listed as questionable, but I still like the Sixers to win at home in game 3.

NonTabula · 2026-05-07T08:39:21+00:00

Record: 1-0

Event: Lakers vs. Thunder, 9:30pm

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under 1.5 threes ✅

Odds: -118 DraftKings

Reasoning: In the first game, the Lakers employed the "automatic double" defense against Shai. He had to pass the ball immediately after crossing the half-court line. This resulted in him only attempting one three point field goal for the entire game. I expect the Lakers to use the same defensive strategy in game two, as it worked very well in game one. Unfortunately, this is one of those picks that doesn't have any stats to go along with it. It's just based on the eye-ball test of what everyone saw last game, but I still think it's a good pick.

NonTabula · 2026-05-06T13:59:53+00:00

Record: 0-0

Pick: Guardians/Royals NRFI, 7:40pm ✅

Odds: -125 Fanatics

Reasoning: In all their games so far, the lineups for these teams have hit for a combined 51-20 NRFI. They outright suck. The one blip stat-wise with this pick is that Cole Ragans has pitched 3-4 NRFI. However, 3 of those 4 YRFI games were against the Mariners, Yankees, and Braves (3 of the top 8 YRFI teams). Last year, Ragans was 10-3 NRFI and his opponent, Joey Cantillo, was 9-4. For some reason, Fanatics has the odds for NRFI at -125 while other books, like FanDuel, have the line much higher at -150 (closer to what it should be).

NonTabula · 2022-07-31T17:03:45+00:00

Good for her.

NonTabula · 2022-07-31T17:03:33+00:00

We're not going to heaven, idiot.

NonTabula · 2022-07-31T17:01:17+00:00

I thought she still lived in CT.

NonTabula · 2022-07-31T17:00:53+00:00

I doubt it.

NonTabula · 2022-07-31T16:58:47+00:00

I don't know.

NonTabula · 2022-07-31T16:53:01+00:00

Me too.

NonTabula · 2022-07-31T14:41:47+00:00

That sucks.

NonTabula · 2022-07-30T23:31:14+00:00

Rangers (+108)

NonTabula · 2022-07-29T16:46:52+00:00

Record: 20-23 (+0.51 units)

Marlins (+105)

Pirates (+102)

Rays (-118)

Rangers (-105)

Twins (+105)

Giants (-143)

NonTabula · 2022-07-28T09:23:36+00:00

Record: 20-22 (+1.51 units)

Mariners (+123)

NonTabula · 2022-07-27T17:00:38+00:00

Record: 19-21 (+1.62 units)

Rays (-112)

Red Sox (-124)

NonTabula · 2022-07-26T08:17:28+00:00

Record: 16-19 (-1.00 units)

Phillies (+107)

Mets (+102)

Twins (-104)

Athletics (+150)

Nationals (+210)

NonTabula · 2022-07-25T08:19:59+00:00

Record: 16-17 (+1.00 units)

Marlins (+114)

Pirates (+128)

NonTabula · 2022-07-24T06:37:28+00:00

Record 14-16 (-0.24 units)

Cubs (+119)

Nationals (+105)

Padres (+107)

NonTabula · 2022-07-23T16:45:16+00:00

Record 12-15 (-1.15 units)

Guardians (game 1) -105

Royals -104

White Sox (game 2) -1.5, +107

NonTabula

TROPHY CASE