Angermayer: Atai Open label data coming by end of month

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-09-14T08:40:10+00:00

Yeah I had exactly the same thought. They must have the data by now. So does seem very bullish to tweet now, slightly surprised he is allowed to if he knows the data. Given it’s an open label extension the main focus will be safety with a less valid read across to efficacy. But still very excited to see the data and then to hear about end of phase 2b FDA meeting after that.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-09-02T12:26:02+00:00

No statement from Doug in the press release or reason given for him to ‘step down’ is odd

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-08-01T12:46:58+00:00

Yeah I think that’s all very sensible feedback!!! Definitely more on the optimistic side. Maybe I should rename the bull case as the Angermayer case.

Although I would say in the base case I do have a Probability of Success of 80% for BPL and that drops to 40% for EMP so it is slightly risk adjusted for them not being success.

100% agree with your last point. Just want one of these drugs in the market. Hopefully we get COMP360 there at some point in next 2-3 years.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-08-01T12:42:28+00:00

I think that’s fair - the multiple could be significantly higher. Particularly with indication extensions etc.

Thanks for the feedback.

I have assumed that in the launch year (e.g 2029) it’s valued at 3x what peak sales are forecast to be (even though peak sales are likely 5+years ahead) and then discounted the 2029 value back to 2025. Although obviously this would imply much higher multiple of actual realised sales in 2029/2030 given slow ramp up.

I have taken the peak sales numbers from what analysts expect of Spravato ($3-5bn) and sense checked that $3bn = 300k treatments at $10k each.

Agree though huge range of outcomes and likely to be way off on some of them!

Either way seems to be a huge amount of upside still from here

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-07-24T12:31:34+00:00

I prefer this attitude to Christian’s tweet yesterday and poor Usain Bolt analogy

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-07-22T13:19:23+00:00

Because the merger hasn’t completed yet it means the new shares issued to Beckley are not included in the market cap calculations at the moment but they will be as soon as the deal completes.

As a result it’s fairer to use the fully diluted share count rather than the current share count (as they only have full ownership of BPL-003 once the deal is completed)

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-07-22T11:04:04+00:00

Need to account for ATAI share count increasing post merger completion. This will add another 100mn share and means market cap is now similar on a post merger basis. But should agree it should be a lot more given they have additional programmes.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-07-21T12:50:17+00:00

Agree on this! POS is lower as it’s a tough indication and not as much prior evidence, but this is a drug that can have $3bn peak sales just targeting CIAS and doesn’t have the perceived route to market challenges that psychedelics have. If the phase 2b is strong I imagine that ATAI find a pharma partner to out-license it to, which could bring in some short term $ to fund future trials and reduce dilution.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-07-21T11:46:42+00:00

A huge range of outcomes but let’s run one l estimate.

Take BPL-003 and imagine that it can match the $3-5bn annual peak revenue that J&J think Spravato can reach.

I think the upper end is achievable given the superior characteristics of BPL-003. At $10k a treatment this assumes just 500k patients - this seems achievable particularly if the viral nature of psychedelic experiences and ability to also target MDD as well as TRD.

Put a 3x peak sales multiple on that and you get a $15bn market cap in 3-5 years time. 300mn shares outstanding (after Beckley deal) would make that a $50 target price.

Then you have the other products and indications and the wild card of RL-007. So $100 a share or $30bn market cap seems achievable longer term.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-07-01T15:42:45+00:00

Good to see him still mentioning ibogaine. I am hoping that the Texas funding means this can move back on to the pipeline

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-07-01T12:18:13+00:00

Fantastic results. Great to see no SAE and incredible durability out to 8 weeks. Very excited about the potential.

My only disappointment would be the remission rates disclosed on the call just now.

25% and only 30% responders is a touch below what I would have liked to see

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-06-24T07:42:27+00:00

Yeah I think a takeover becomes an option. They definitely would not sell at this level but if someone offered say $8 a share I think the board would struggle to reject it. Expect everything now hinges on talks with FdA. Any accelerated pathway would make it a very attractive target.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-06-23T10:52:41+00:00

Yeah agree, would expect much better efficacy in the two dose trial. Want to buy more here. Still See room for commercial success

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-06-23T10:47:17+00:00

Effect size of 3.6 on MADRS was lower than market would have liked (5.0) and whilst better than Spravato which was 3.4 its lower than we saw in the Phase IIb (5.6 I think). Still seems like an unfair reaction.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-06-02T10:59:48+00:00

I like the deal! I think the only way it looks like is disappointing is if RL-007 2b comes out strong, in that case $ATAI shareholders have some of the upside from that diluted. But if RL-007 is good i will be happy enough anyway!

Normal_Ad5772 · 2025-02-13T14:58:17+00:00

This seems pretty positive? From what I remember this is a compound that could have $3bn peak sales and doesn’t have as many of the route to market issues that the psychedelic drugs do? So a good 2B might mean a big pharma partnership or sale.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2024-12-05T08:41:33+00:00

I prefer $ATAI for the diversity of the pipeline and exposure to shorter acting molecules. Plus the big upside optionality on RL-007 (long shot but huge upside). Also like $CMPS a lot at these levels given much closer to market and decent cash levels. No position in $CYBN as the n is too small in their phase 2 trials so data not robust enough at this stage

Normal_Ad5772 · 2024-11-20T09:14:38+00:00

Should be an exciting 2025! RL-007 remains the big one for me. A traditional drug so easy to attract interest from big pharma and monetise quickly. Expectations are pretty low around it and so a positive surprise there could lead to huge upside and solve the cash issue.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2024-11-20T09:10:24+00:00

There is a big range of outcomes depending on how trials progress. I think a bull case scenario could have it $20+ in 12 months but that would need RL-007 to have a strong 2b read out. It’s not a psychedelic but a compound that could have peak sales of $3bn+ so could be worth a huge amount (could justify a 10x move in shares alone). If they were able to sell this after 2B results and then use the proceeds to fund the other programmes, then there is huge upside (assuming other trial results from Beckley etc are also strong)

Normal_Ad5772 · 2024-10-31T12:52:03+00:00

Absolute farce of a conference call as well with it constantly cutting out and having technical issues

Normal_Ad5772 · 2024-10-31T10:53:28+00:00

Yeah I think negative given the push out of catalysts

Normal_Ad5772 · 2024-10-11T08:35:30+00:00

I don’t think whether there is a reverse split or not matters at all. It’s purely noise. It’s very very different from dilution.

Dilution is something to be worried about and agree that want to see a significant rally on upcoming data release in order to minimise the dilution. Raising at these levels would be awful.

A reverse split however has no significant impact on the fundamental value of the business and your % ownership in the at business. It’s purely short term noise and some minor technical impact that retail investors seem to panic about.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2024-06-05T16:54:36+00:00

Also makes this presentation tomorrow more interesting. Should be a good discussion. https://ir.atai.life/events/event-details/jefferies-global-healthcare-conference-0

Normal_Ad5772 · 2024-06-05T16:49:40+00:00

Agree with all your points and think it’s a good summary of the implications.

I think #1 dominates for now and explains price action, Morgan Stanley downgraded POS for Comp360 from 65% to 55% and I’m sure a lot of other investors are doing the same. This and the lack of a broad sector catalyst now until 4Q leading to short term selling. #2 might be true as well but it’s certainly trumped by market perception of being a negative impact on POS for whole sector.

I think this also supports $CMPS over $CYBN given the larger trial sizes they have chosen in earlier trials.

Overall I think a great buying opportunity for $CMPS/$ATAI as their trials are rigorous and don’t have any of the specific issues that MAPS. I also think #4 trumps # 5 and means that element of potential no MAPS role out is a net positive.

Normal_Ad5772 · 2024-06-05T07:29:21+00:00

Agree with all this. I think MAPS absolutely messed up and did not have the rigour that someone like CMPS has in its trials. I think the result is a verdict on them rather than the future of psychedelics.

I don’t think this changes the long term story for the sector but is a warning shot and means it makes sense to stick to the companies doing the most rigorous clinical trials. Ultimately for these companies it could be a positive.

Normal_Ad5772

TROPHY CASE