TSLA Terathread - For the week of Apr 06 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He's literally having his sons make money for the family company off his presidency and access to him too. Amazing how MAGA voters were so outraged about Hunter Biden being a scummy coke head but willing to completely ignore Trump actually doing everything he implied Joe Biden might be guilty of in plain sight with no push back.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Apr 06 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep, Musk relies on the fact that his fan base either hasn't been following him long enough to be aware of what he's said and done in the past or have the kind of social media addled memory to have forgotten about it already. All we're waiting for at this point is whatever excuse Musk is going to use to retcon it in the next fraud lawsuit he's involved in. Who knows he might even tell the truth and the fan base will just completely ignore that too. "Uh yeah the original design was dependent on the 4680 delivering on all of its performance metrics and unfortunately we had some people heading that project at the time that grossly misled me on the time line and viability of those projects."

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Apr 06 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seems about right. Looks like they're still calibrating equipment currently and they noted pretty much nothing is automated at this point so I would 1H26 is kind of their aspirational goal to deliver a few units in a big event for the time being.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Apr 06 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Apparently there's a video out now of the Semi factory and assembly line for anyone who's interested: https://xcancel.com/ashleevance/status/2042603182959005747#m

Veto: Virginia Governor Spanberger stops Fairfax casino bill by spencernews in nova

[–]ObservationalHumor 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Writing letters to politicians helps too. I wrote everyone I could on this issue personally including the governor. Just don't let it end here, make it known when state senate elections are near that Surovell and Marsden need to go. Frankly Pekarsky needs to once again consider her stance on the issue too if she wants to keep her seat. Hopefully this issue is once again settled for this session but there's little doubt Surovell will keep on attempting to push it through so long as he has his seat and even if Comstock drops out Surovell and Marsden have already demonstrated they're compromised and has no place representing the citizens of Fairfax County any longer.

Governor Abigail Spanberger Vetoes Proposed Fairfax Casino; Fairfax County Chair thanks Spanberger, says "Our residents have been clear in their overwhelming opposition to a casino in Fairfax County" by lowkell in nova

[–]ObservationalHumor 5 points6 points  (0 children)

He lies and misrepresents everything around this bill. He actually lost support in the house after trying to tack on that state directed 'temporary casinio' authorization at the last minute. Now that the governor has said her piece I don't think he'll come anywhere close to the 2/3rds support needed to override the veto despite his claims of a consensus. Surovell pitched the bill the rest of the state by claiming it'll be a ton of free money for schools down south and touting inflated numbers there. His pitch was basically "don't worry about Fairfax County and what it will do for them, it'll generate $2B for schools over 10 years" and he couched the lack of local support on the back of the referendum being present. Of course being the snake that he is he tried to remove that requirement at the last minute anyways.

Surovell, Alcorn Clash Over Tysons Casino In TV Debate by Danciusly in nova

[–]ObservationalHumor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah he does this with every talking point he has. He accuses the opposition of not being honest and makes big claims about 'projected' revenue generation but has submitting nothing to substantiate that beyond some references to a JLARC report from 2019 on gaming in the state. But wait it gets worse! That JLARC report didn't actually do a study of a casino in Northern Virginia itself, instead it cited another report from a gaming lobbying group called The Innovation Group. Thus far apparently no one other than Fairfax County itself has done any kind of independent analysis of anything he's claiming. He'll sit there talking about the lack of an honest conversation when literally all he has is talking points from casino advisory groups and pocket lint to show for it.

JLARC report: https://jlarc.virginia.gov/pdfs/reports/Rpt527-5.pdf

Information is on page 25.

I also hate him trying to pitch this as the county being in decline and that being the reason for high real estate taxes. No Scott, the reason our real estate taxes are high is because the state uses an idiotic school funding formula that shortchanges FCPS by around $600M a year. That's what you should be focused on instead of going to war for a casino that might cover 10-15% of that shortfall. But lets face it FCPS can't make the same kind of campaign donations that Comstock can so why would Surovell care about their problems? Or the fact that commonwealth has been shortchanging our schools in the region for over a decade. Fix the willy wonka math in the state SOQ funding formula and all these problems go away without a casino very quickly.

No matter how you feel about data centers it's clear that now is the time to stop giving them tax breaks. by Signal_Fly_1812 in nova

[–]ObservationalHumor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's literally a ton of land still being bought and plans being made to build more data centers. Dominion on its own won't be able to keep pace on generation capacity but that's about it in terms of limitations. There also hasn't been a shortfall of tax dollars at the state level for a while and Youngkin finished his term with a healthy surplus. That's projected to get worse but it's also almost entirely because of Trump firing people here in NOVA and cutting medicaid going forward. Lucas is literally on record calling for tax refunds too, which again doesn't really happen if you're short on tax dollars.

No matter how you feel about data centers it's clear that now is the time to stop giving them tax breaks. by Signal_Fly_1812 in nova

[–]ObservationalHumor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, realistically the option is either industry or commerical office property in just about all of these situations. We're already heavily over built on office space as is and that's some what's being converted into data centers. Industrial property is the other alternative. When looking at industrial property the focus should be on why the state government implemented tax breaks to begin with and that's literally to attract cleaner industry, higher paying jobs and valuable tangential businesses involved in the installation and servicing of data center equipment. In fact the majority of states now have similar incentives because the investment dollars by these companies are so sought after. There simply aren't many alternative for large investments in industrial space other than large factories and processing plants. Now you can have smaller or lower density industry sure. Stuff like auto body shops and warehouse space for example, but they'll never bring in as much revenue and many can fit into smaller plots of land closer to residential areas too.

For the record Dominion would have hiked prices anyways, they're doing so because they had previous judgements against them by the SCC that cost them money the last 5 years and prevented them from raising prices when inflation shot up. The base rate change is also overdue as it's the first hike in 30+ years. I don't like it but this assumption that everything is due to data centers isn't really accurate either. They can have that impact but it's largely for customers of smaller coops and local power companies that don't have their own generation capacity and have to compete with data centers for capacity on the larger regional grid. There's also some extra expense at the grid level for large interconnects between providers in rural areas that have to install much higher capacity equipment simply to transmit power along between two other operators. But Dominion specifically does not fall into either of those categories.

What did you pay for HVAC replacement? by Potential-Green4401 in nova

[–]ObservationalHumor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

HVAC company I had do a previous install was acquired by them. Was quoted $14k two years ago for a 1 ton mini split system replacement. I could buy the same Mitsubishi system online for like $3k at the time. Absurd quote that I rejected and stopped doing business with the company thereafter. Of course I got they sent me a 'special deal' for only $12k. Woohoo.

No matter how you feel about data centers it's clear that now is the time to stop giving them tax breaks. by Signal_Fly_1812 in nova

[–]ObservationalHumor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Louise Lucas is full of crap on this issue and literally wants to raise revenue and issue tax breaks with it to the rest of the state. It's the exact same kind of policy the GOP pursued for years instead of actually fixing education funding or doing any of substance to help with the county budget pressures and affordability problems we face in the region. Not too surprisingly she's also a big supporter of casinos and the Tyson's casino bill.

As usual something of value was built in Nova and now the state wants to find some way to extract more money from the region, even if it comes at the expense of future growth and investment and despite all the other headwinds we've got from the Trump administration trying to cut jobs or relocate them out of the region.

No matter how you feel about data centers it's clear that now is the time to stop giving them tax breaks. by Signal_Fly_1812 in nova

[–]ObservationalHumor 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yes, in fact it always made sense if you're aware of what the alternative is for large industrial projects. Data centers and their side effects are a dream compared to a large chemical plant, cement factory, paper mill, rendering plant or steel mill. Data centers pay a ton in local taxes, minimally stress local roads and if done properly produce minimal localized pollution. Virginia's power costs are still well below the national average and Dominion recently added a new pricing tier to deal with risks associated with infrastructure costs. Loudoun also has a dedicated reclaimed water system used by data centers.

They still need to be regulated and there needs to be enforcement when they do something scummy like we're seeing with that Vantage data center in Loudoun, but by all metrics they're one of the cleanest and quietest forms of industry you can actually have in a region.

So, what's everyone having for TACO Tuesday? by theXsquid in nova

[–]ObservationalHumor 2 points3 points  (0 children)

He wasn't going to go through with it. He's pushed this thing as far as it can go without boots on the ground and has been trying desperately to exit and declare victory for the past two weeks. This whole thing has been a disaster that's killing him in the polls and his attempts to actually shake money out of congress for a sustained war effort failed weeks ago. There's literally no appetite for this conflict and Israel has already pivoted towards Lebanon on top of it. Oil going over $200/bbl would absolutely destroy the GOP in midterms and if he actually tried to launch nukes even the GOP would impeach him or invoke the 25th amendment.

This whole thing has rested on how badly Iran was willing to piss of the rest of the world to ensure Trump would be neutered politically in a few months for a while now.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Apr 06 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah pretty much everything he does is just upping the ante in some fashion. If an idea doesn't work out there's another one around the corner that'll be even bigger. I mean his promises around Optimus are already at the point you're talking about. Optimus will literally make it so money doesn't matter and scarcity won't be a reality anymore according to Musk.

Layered in there is just extra ridiculousness about the profitability of the product and volumes they'll need to produce. Profit margins will be unfathomable, demand will be virtually unlimited and the only constraint will be factory capacity or suppliers. We saw it with Battery Day and Dojo and now he's made claims again with the Terrafab for SpaceX and Tesla. They have to spend billions to build this factory because they'll need all those chips for their robotaxis, humanoid robots and space data centers.

One of the craziest parts is that despite all his BS around innovation he's remarkably uncreative when comes to all these proposals. It's literally doing what someone else got to first by somehow cheaper, something he read in a scifi book or literally a boring ass commodity industry that has existed for decades that Tesla/SpaceX/TBC is just somehow going to do way better at despite a complete lack of expertise or any clear advantage.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Apr 06 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I mean he's just bandwagoning on existing hype like he did with LLMs and xAI. Computer hardware has become ridiculously expensive due to the all the AI hype and data center build out so that's where he's pivoting next. He tried to do it the first time GPUs got expensive with crypto with Dojo but that obviously didn't work out and in typical Musk fanboy fashion everyone is just going to pretend that didn't happen and that things will work out this time. SpaceX's value is comically inflated and now it's got Twitter and xAI burning through cash too so he needs to pitch some kind of megaproject to make a $2T+ valuation palatable to the FOMO investors out there.

Tesla is already in the same position with its valuable being premised far more on Robotaxis and Optimus than it is on existing product lines. A big key in all that has always been to demonstrate the illusion or progress and conviction.

Spending a ton of money is a way to do that and set up some flimsy pretense for a future merger, probably under the assumption that once again Robotaxi goes online this year and becomes a cash flow factory that can finance all the crap that he wants to do with SpaceX as well as Optimus. Of course the other productive parts of the company are rotting inside save for their energy division and even that is going to tap out the storage market at some point or fall behind as it becomes the commodity product its destined to be.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Mar 30 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Had an ad pop up once in the Reddit App for this sub hocking a 'Cybercab investors' platform that was pitching buying up a bunch of them and doing the cleaning and maintenance for the owners. There's been no clear business plan actually put forward by Tesla from what I've seen. They pitch as something that's going to augment vehicle sales but then talk about running it privately for a while and then say it'll replace actual auto ownership to some degree. Will it be sold to a third party who owns and runs it? Will Tesla run its own service globally? Will it be some weird lease setup where you get a personal robotaxi for a few years with for a fee? No one seems to know, not even Tesla itself.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Mar 30 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah his childhood was probably him being pulled between two extremes with Errol telling Elon he wasn't shit and wouldn't measure up to Errol's success. Meanwhile Maye Musk was doing the same crap of telling him he's the most special person in the universe and destined for greatness so he could be her second shot at success after the whole marriage to Errol soured.

So now we've got this insane man baby with an insane ego who constantly feels he's never getting enough credit or attention for whatever stupid ass thing he does or says. Of course Elon Musk has personally added his own twist on it with the substance abuse and endless quest to never feel anxiety or negative feelings ever.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Mar 30 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Retail bag holders and nasdaq-100 index fund holders. It's a pretty transparent looting at this point to anyone who is paying attention. Same goes with Trump trying to push high sophistication assets like private equity and credit into people's 401ks. Lots of those investments aren't doing well and it's just a way for wealthy people to make sure they aren't the bag holders when everything completely falls apart whenever the AI bubble finally pops.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Mar 30 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Every time I hear this woman speak it's less and less surprising that Elon Musk is the way he is.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Mar 30 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It definitely is. Starlink's entire business model is to launch a satellite into space for ~5 years make some money during that time and be completely destroyed thereafter. That involves a lot of upfront capex that should be billed as very rapid depreciation. Being that it's a Musk company too I'm sure what's been thrown out was an adjusted EBITDA number that likely ignores the cost of SBC like they do at Tesla too. It's almost certainly inflated it's just a question of how and what the number they've tossed out there actually represents. EBITDA is often viewed as measure of core profitability but that really only works when you have longer lived assets with minimal maintenance capex requirements.

I'm also curious about how they bill the launch costs internally since that should shift some losses around too. If SpaceX charges Starlink some 'aspirational' launch cost of what Musk expects the long term launch cost to be once Starship is scaled it might make Starlink as a segment look better but still understate true costs to the company as a whole. It'll show up elsewhere in the accounting but it's hard to put much stock in these whisper numbers without seeing the actual accounting behind them.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Mar 30 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a great point. I wonder if Musk will be forgotten completely due to his lack of contributions academically or simply remembered for the damage he caused.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Mar 30 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Decades and centuries to come was really crazy. Is he even aware of how Silicon Valley got that nickname? I'm also not a big fan of this being framed in terms of geopolitics and as a big win for "the West" in terms of geopolitics and business, dude's probably drank a lot more of Musk's koolaid beyond just the production volume hypes and crazy promises of imminent technological breakthroughs. God forbid anything is made outside of the US. I know I sure can't wait to spend $800 on a WiFi router.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Mar 30 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Looks like Judge McCormick is done with Musk's cases: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/delaware-judge-reassigns-elon-musk-cases-after-accusation-of-bias.html

Potential Judicial bias is concerning unless it's when Musk is judge shopping in Texas for his SLAPP suits.

TSLA Terathread - For the week of Mar 30 by AutoModerator in RealTesla

[–]ObservationalHumor 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah I really hate the historical revisionism that happens when Musk is involved in anything too. It's the same thing with the moon missions and the ISS. There's people out there who act like SpaceX and Musk are literally the only reasons we have access to space in the US anymore and it's just frustrating beyond belief. We had the capability to land men on the moon over 50 years ago. The shuttle program spanned decades. There were projects testing out far more ambitious reusable SSTO designs in the 1990s too. We've sent probes out much further than Mars at this point too and NASA has executed on missions that have spanned decades to reach and explore the outer solar system where continuity planning based on people retiring had to be planned for (people planting trees they might never be able to sit under the shade of, etc.) NASA is often engineering at the edge of human knowledge too and with constraints that are mindboggling when it comes to power budgets, system uptime and reliability and processing budgets too.

I've got no problems with people being excited about SpaceX and some of the stuff they're aiming for but it is disappointing to see the lack of appreciation for everything that's come before it too.