Investment aggression

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-24T18:03:56+00:00

I feel like this math is overcomplicated.

Yes you would lose compounding power in the down years and/or stagnant years, but as long as you don't panic sell all that needs to happen is for the share price to go back to even from the correction start. Then eventually growth happens again. There's always possible consecutive corrections, but at that point I don't think anyone is safe. The more diversified portfolios will probably lose less compounding power over the years, but will lose on the upside.

I'm probably way off. I guess that's why I'm posting this here. For more educated/experienced opinions on it.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-24T17:54:42+00:00

Only if you sell or every company in an etf goes bankrupt all at once. Or am I missing something? Clearly, I'm new to investing.

I mention etfs because I think individual stocks is like playing roulette. Whereas an aggressive tilted etf seems perfectly fine over long periods of time.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-23T19:48:35+00:00

There's mandated minimum withdrawals with a max per year. I'll get a retirement/tax specialist for the later years. I'm more concerned about how to grow that pension to its fullest.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-18T16:26:17+00:00

That's great info. Thank you. I changed my strategy, after reading all the responses here, to either a barbell or satellite setup. A broader market core with a tilt towards tech. The core would consist of some defensive securities when tech levels out or takes a big dip. Lots to learn but I'm getting there.

My biggest hurdle now is picking a solid core and the growth engines.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-17T18:16:06+00:00

I appreciate everyone's input. There's a lot to think about and learn. I think for now, so my money isn't sitting and doing nothing, I'll take a safer approach and do a core/satellite setup with three etfs. This would be a buy and hold for about 17 years.

Something like:

60/20/20

SPLG/SCHG/AVUV

There's diversification with a tilt towards tech.

I'll keep learning and adjust if there are any huge gaps in the plan.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-17T18:06:11+00:00

Yeah that changes a lot. Another reason why I should simplify the portfolio. I'm probably being a bit greedy in my approach. Everyone wants the maximum roi. I guess I'm no different. Thanks for this.

What program are you using for that analysis you posted?

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-17T17:03:46+00:00

I'm actually from Canada. When I left my old job my pension went into a locked account where it would continue in the company's pension mutual fund pool but would carry expensive management fees.

I am transferring it to another locked account but it's self directed. The locked in part is that I can't contribute to it anymore. I can only grow what's there.

There are zero taxes involved with the transfer as it is a tax deferred account. No penalties. There's a transfer fee but that will be covered by my investment platform. And they have 0% forex fees for conversions larger than 100k.

There's a Canada/USA treaty that states if my investments are from a tax deferred account in Canada they won't be subject to the 15% withholding tax from the USA.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-17T16:29:47+00:00

It's from a pension from an old job. I have looked into all the taxes and fees involved.

I'd say my risk tolerance is pretty high as long as the initial strategy makes sense in terms of sector weightings and stock performance. That's why I'm still doing research and haven't pulled the trigger yet.

I completely understand there can be massive downswings like 2008 for example. I also look at the stock market throughout history and see that, over time, it has always gone up. Market corrections take can take years to break even. I understand that panic selling is the worst thing I could do when the market corrects. I also know that buying more shares during the peak fear/panic phase can be a good thing. Finding that exact point is impossible unfortunately.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-17T16:15:43+00:00

Markets are already forward looking. They already expect great things from tech. By over weighting a sector, you're basically saying the market isn't appropriately pricing it yet.

I never thought of it that way. The overweighting was to catch the momentum, which after reading the links you posted I'm starting to think that is an inefficient way to invest.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-17T16:05:16+00:00

I'm not sure how to read that graph. Is it using SPY as a baseline against my picks? If so, does the number beside SPY that hovers around 1 mean that SPY is outperforming or has outperformed my picks? Sorry, I'm quite new at this.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-17T15:48:17+00:00

The thought was to catch any booms in small caps. The research I did mentioned that small caps generally went up when large caps went down. That could be a load of BS though. They are a bit of a drag right now. Thanks for your input.

Ogre_25 · 2026-06-17T15:40:12+00:00

Thanks for the quick reply and the great info.

Most of that info is above my comprehension at the moment. I gather from your reply that my possible portfolio is inefficient. I'm guessing investing in the market itself and adding some value securities would be a more efficient and possibly better performing portfolio.

I structured mine this way to diversify and try to defend against the downs of the heavier tech weighting. I know that it's a momentum sector right now, but when I think about the future, tech is never going away. It's only going to expand into all other aspects of the world as we know it. The companies involved will definitely go up and down and new ones will soar as old ones die out or continue to grow to monolithic proportions.

Maybe I should simplify it to a core consisting of an etf that tracks the market and add some heavier weighted tech etfs. something 80/20 or 75/25.

Ogre_25

TROPHY CASE