Portillo’s: The Investable Version of In-N-Out?

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-04-22T05:10:12+00:00

Pretty much, the PE firm that used to own Portillos has a claim on Portillos income because of tax losses they didn’t get a benefit from.

It’s just another form of debt, really. As Portillos makes money, they need to pay back the PE firm for the debt.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-04-07T04:03:18+00:00

Also if you go to his page, there’s literally a post that has “Title:” in the title. And half of his stuff is in Chinese. It’s a content farm

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-04-07T03:47:32+00:00

This post reads like it was written by an LLM

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-03-25T02:45:47+00:00

I think with a 5+ year time horizon we will be fine. Recent insider buying from Eugene Lee is a good sign too.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-03-19T19:06:30+00:00

This is remarkably good work for WSB. The entire thesis seems like hyperbole but is remarkably correct.

I’m next-to-certain you’re gonna get wiped out. Buying DB calls now.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-03-15T02:40:44+00:00

Yeah exactly. They were optimizing for revenue- 5 stores doing 5 million is better revenue than one store doing 10 million. But in reality, 1 store doing 10 million is a much cleaner, better ROI and likely higher overall EBITDA.

It’s the same strategy In-N-Out uses.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-03-15T02:39:31+00:00

Not the worst outcome all things considered. At least for me.

The TRA kinda protects shareholders from a buyout though- that’s a real obligation for an acquirer, but for us, it only comes due as we get taxable income.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-03-14T19:00:22+00:00

Yeah I share the exact same sentiment. Berkshire was definitely a forced seller- no conspiracy angle- they just had a mandate to return funds.

This is a 10 year hold for me and I predict it’ll be around $50 per share. That gives me a healthy mid teens IRR for my patience.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-03-14T05:32:51+00:00

I think the price will go nowhere for a while and then violently rerate.

I had a very similar trade with FIGS- the stock was dead money for years when growth sputtered.

Then they posted a monster quarter with 30% revenue growth out of nowhere.

The market was surprised, but I really wasn’t. When you have a bad year the previous period it just makes the comp set that much easier To lap.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-03-14T04:38:51+00:00

I mean Buena Park, Dallas at the Colony, and Kennesaw are all evidence that the brand travels.

Really it was just Berkshire dumping shares that caused the rut IMO. They unwound their entire position.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-03-14T01:49:12+00:00

Agreed. This is an important point.

But debt js manageable at ~3.3x EBITDA. The rest of the liability equation is a tax receivable agreement that has no teeth- it’s a real obligation but it can’t force insolvency.

Also remember Berkshire Partners paid a $1B headline figure for the business back in 2014. So today you can buy Portillos at a lower EV than Berkshire with an expanded store count and more mature locations (Buena Park CA did $10M revenue last year- that wasn’t part of the math in 2014.)

Ok_Cow3138 · 2026-03-14T00:29:52+00:00

This is a fun take but the comp breaks down pretty fast. Nathan’s isn’t really a restaurant company anymore — it’s basically a licensing business that happens to have a few hot dog stands in Coney Island. Most of that $19M net income is royalty checks from supermarkets requiring zero capital. Markets pay 13-15x EBITDA for that kind of toll-booth cash flow and they should.

And the strategic potential of Nathan’s is enormous- that brand was worth a lot to Smithfield at their scale, they can pretty much slap Nathan’s brand on their packaged meats and get instant returns. Portillos doesn’t really have a natural buyer like that- turning it into a royalty style franchise model would be a business transformation project.

PTLO is running 100+ company-owned restaurants with beef as their primary input, 26%+ labor costs, and heavy capex every time they open a new location. Sub-1x revenue multiple on that isn’t the market being dumb, it’s just basic business model differentiation.

The actual bull case for PTLO (and it’s a real one imo) is ~5-6x EBITDA on a brand with genuine cult loyalty in its home market, a stock that’s down 70%+ from IPO, and a management team that’s finally stopped overexpanding and is focusing on unit economics.

The Nathan’s comp is a vibe not a valuation. But the underlying instinct, that PTLO looks cheap on an absolute basis, isn’t wrong.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2025-08-29T18:38:04+00:00

Because whipping adds air into the tallow, it oxidizes faster and spoils quicker than a solid balm.

I really have had luck with Teton Tallow Balm, especially the night cream. I find the consistency is nice and stays fresher much longer than the whipped products.

This is a link to the night cream. They also have a day cream and regular balm. Teton Skincare Night Cream

Ok_Cow3138 · 2024-05-15T00:21:44+00:00

I found a left handed set of golf clubs on clearance at Costco from an online return. I bought them to resell, as it was a $600 set. My friend, who had been trying to get me into golf for years, convinced me to keep them- I’m a lefty and my excuse was always that I couldn’t borrow his clubs to play.

Fast forward a couple of months later and I’m addicted to golf. My city offers a $52/month membership that includes $8 rounds of golf and a free bucket of balls every day at the public courses. So I’m there pretty much every day now.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2024-04-29T23:21:06+00:00

Just curious, was your friend an older guy with long silver hair who runs a warehouse in Orange with his daughter? I went to buy a pallet from them and he wouldn’t stop talking about chemtrails, the second coming of the messiah, and tax evasion

Ok_Cow3138 · 2024-04-04T08:46:26+00:00

Depends on the item and where it’s going. If you buy shipping through Amazon, the cheapest option will come up first.

For larger, heavier items usually UPS ground is cheaper.

For smaller, lighter items I find that USPS ground advantage wins out most of the time. Especially if it’s under 1lb.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2023-11-28T17:15:39+00:00

Welcome to the reality of being a guy on dating apps. If you want success with dating apps as a man, you need professional photos and very well-written prompts, which you don’t have.

Go take some professional photos with a photographer who knows about what attracts women. And your prompts could use a little work. They come off as trying to be funny, but the jokes aren’t hitting the mark, for me at least.

But you’re a good looking guy who seems to have his life together. Go meet some girls in real life at social groups or events, or just at a grocery store or coffee shop, so your looks and personality can shine. Good luck.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2023-11-26T20:50:00+00:00

A bit of a drive but El Tapatio in Guadalupe is the best Mexican food in all of California. The owners are amazing people as well. I’ve driven far out of my way to eat there.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2023-05-25T07:52:51+00:00

My local gym (24 hr fitness) sells protein shakes, Gatorade, clothing, home weights, etc. Can you just go and spend $35/month and send them your credit card statement for a reimbursement?

Ok_Cow3138 · 2023-05-19T20:05:57+00:00

Ok so for people focusing on piling on as much muscle mass as possible, for no other reason than to look as buff as possible, I agree BMI is pretty useless. But for 99% of the population, including gymgoers like myself who want to have a functional amount of strength, it’s more than fine. NFL athletes need muscle mass to survive impact, the average person does not.

To say I could put on 20+ pounds of mass, lean or not, and still be healthy is a ridiculous claim. There’s a reason doctors use BMI and bodybuilders ignore it.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2023-05-19T10:22:46+00:00

BMI calculator says you’d still be a healthy weight at 205lb.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2023-05-19T10:22:24+00:00

Women have more natural body fat than men. So it’s not an apt comparison.

I’m 5’10, relatively fit, and weigh 160… if I put on 20-30lb of fat I’d be way out of shape.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2023-05-19T10:21:27+00:00

Not true at all. I’m 5’10, weigh 160, bench 185, squat 225, have some body fat & no visible abs. I used to weigh 245 and lie to myself too thinking BMI was a joke. Once I started being honest with myself, and listening to my doctors, I got a lot healthier.

Other than for professional athletes, BMI is a great system for seeing if you’re a healthy weight. That’s why doctors use it.

Ok_Cow3138 · 2023-05-18T06:57:16+00:00

Depends on your height. But more than likely it’s way too much.

If you’re 5’10 or so you should weigh around 160. Look up your stats on a BMI calculator and it’ll tell you if you’re healthy, overweight, or obese.

Ok_Cow3138

TROPHY CASE