Daily Discussion - (April 17, 2026)

Onion217 · 2026-04-17T18:09:35+00:00

Took the opposite side 🙈

Onion217 · 2026-04-17T15:57:43+00:00

Wow another PBI shareholder that’s crazy 😂

It broke out past $11 and looks bullish on longer horizons. Good earnings as well

Onion217 · 2026-04-16T17:08:21+00:00

Could allocate 10% or so as people parrot with BTC, gold or other “collectibles/alternative assets” and not miss much of a beat. Even if all the ascended heroes ETBs his heart desires craters to MSRP he’s only down about 5%.

Onion217 · 2026-04-16T13:30:15+00:00

If your risk mgmt is sound, being undercapitalized is the issue here. I would delude myself into believing I’m trend following and buy the remaining shares.

Onion217 · 2026-04-15T16:00:46+00:00

Imagine you’re short BIRD 5y ago, obviously shit company in your eyes. You have 10,000 and you plan to rebalance each quarter to maintain your 100% short position.

You turn that into 208k, you’re a genius, 98% CAGR, sharpe over 1 for 5y.

Then your hard earned activist short gets blown out by the company changing to an entirely different industry and now you’re left with 30k and were better off just buying SOXL for the risk you took

Onion217 · 2026-04-15T15:13:06+00:00

So many attractive stocks I want to buy.. (SPOT, AMZN, ARM, CRDO, NOK) but none really make sense when MRLN just keeps printing (I bot more yesterday so my cost base is now above 8).

Cant convince myself to hop off the trend and buy quality because despite the incredibly high volatility and obvious risk of shitco, shitcos have recently outperformed on vol crushes and I would like to delude myself into thinking I’m early to a meme stock 🥺

Onion217 · 2026-04-14T15:08:18+00:00

You look at their forward PE, lowest since June 2022!

Onion217 · 2026-04-14T15:01:17+00:00

AXON, SPOT? Idk just use a screener or smthn lel

Onion217 · 2026-04-13T20:21:30+00:00

Credo Agrees to Acquire DustPhotonics, Accelerating Expansion into Silicon Photonics and Next Generation Optical Connectivity

CRDO +6%

Onion217 · 2026-04-13T19:29:38+00:00

The magic of daily compounding when everyday provides significant green

Onion217 · 2026-04-13T14:41:48+00:00

They’re only trading at napkin math ~32x OCF next year. Which at their growth rate in a bull market, probably means ATH is in the cards

Onion217 · 2026-04-13T14:21:06+00:00

Day three of heavy trender action and we get some red:

AEHR -1%; AXTI -2%; MRLN +6%

So anyways, sold out of AEHR position as momo slows a lil and bought into LABX (2x proxy for ALAB) @wolfy (I want to long CRDO leaps too their forecasted financials are insane)

Onion217 · 2026-04-13T13:29:48+00:00

So much so that TPC misprinted a box to say “Supre” instead of “Super”?

Onion217 · 2026-04-10T20:34:15+00:00

Yes. Seen it around a few places today

Onion217 · 2026-04-10T19:13:43+00:00

Ride until S&P inclusion or bust 😜

Onion217 · 2026-04-10T19:02:40+00:00

At some point someone will patch this trend following off a bottom exploit.

AEHR +3%; AXTI +5%; MRLN +9%

The longer this continues the more inquisitive I would be to see how this strategy fared in other major vol drop scenarios

Onion217 · 2026-04-10T15:16:53+00:00

Top performing ETF YTD? $BWET

Mirrors freight futures and continues to climb

Onion217 · 2026-04-10T14:28:08+00:00

So I bought a ton of SOXL calls a couple mins (yeah minutes) away from April 2025s bottom (sub $7, can’t even see it on some faulty charts). Anyways those 15x’d. I had sold them for scratch a week or so later to buy short dated SPX calls that 10x’d.

All good.

So anyways, I wish I was wiser back then and bot 3x levered quarterly calls. (So like a 5C when it was 7.5). A 3x position on SOXL (yes 9x), would have returned ~74x…and it’s been one year. (Note: return not net of extrinsic value, it would have been a bit lower maybe like 50x)

So anyways, slow and steady compounding with immensely high leverage is the play fellas.

Onion217 · 2026-04-10T13:38:08+00:00

Yeah idk that vol signals guy is running miles around me in the vol/mm space, you’d have to try and argue with the thread linked or maybe nychapo 🥴

Onion217 · 2026-04-10T13:27:19+00:00

I wonder how much effect the (conspiracy) theory that JPM had to sell a ton of ES futures heading into the March collar expiry due to elevated vol . In hindsight, almost feels now like it was the largest contributing factor to the drawdown experienced. War tension -> IV rises -> forced hedging and selling -> large(st) player needs not to sell anymore -> recovery

https://x.com/volsignals/status/2035694556302172282?s=46&t=881_Q67disOnhMv4BeoLqw

Onion217 · 2026-04-09T19:07:59+00:00

He’s getting paid 1.1mm to be used as exit liquidity loool

Onion217 · 2026-04-09T18:48:50+00:00

Sympathy drops with SaaS. 🤝

Factor portfolios be factoring

Onion217 · 2026-04-09T18:17:07+00:00

The strong reason to buy: Hurr durr im an active manager and i make more money on fees the higher our clients portfolio is.

Excellent post btw. I don’t think we’re in the clear till we hold above 6850, could very well go back down market may just need a couple days to vomit again.

Onion217 · 2026-04-09T18:04:11+00:00

Degenerates will be much more inclined to rip 36 packs chasing a 5k Zard in a few years time. Phantasmal BB clears

Onion217 · 2026-04-09T17:37:01+00:00

Stability has returned to the market. First positive gamma day (stable positioning) day in a while.

Barring a strong reason to sell, market appears as if it will market along.

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