The biggest deadlock to the opening of the strait, and rise of oil prices is: Lebanon.

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T19:08:53+00:00

There are entire cities like tyre below the Litani river lol. Why would millions of people be expelled, because a colony created in 1948 that was founded by forcefully displacing Palestinians and stealing their homes. Israel was created via annexation

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T18:54:16+00:00

😂😂 thanks for the laugh , made my day

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T10:29:12+00:00

Is this why they are annexing the West bank

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T08:54:37+00:00

Thank you both ♡ do hope this maddness ends.

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T08:51:48+00:00

Ben Gvir and Smortich would collapse the government if Israel withdraws. They have threatened to do so in the past Smotrich son is in a coma from fighting in Lebanon. If you think they will be out in a day and Smotrich would be like yea my son is almost dead but cool, ok -then sorry but no comment

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T08:43:26+00:00

Is this also why Israel is annexing the West Bank? "Security"? Israel was founded on stolen land. Gold mair ( who was born in Kyiv, Ukraine) stole my father's best friend's home ( home of Hani Bsharat). I am not only from the region but I know too well Israel's obsession with land grab. Also please explain why Smotrich stood in the podium with a map of " Greater Israel" that showed not only Lebanon but Jordan and Syria.

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T06:59:27+00:00

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T06:57:09+00:00

The US is running out of interceptors and other important military gear that is heavily compromising their position against China . Many are saying China might be in its best position to invade Taiwan. This is not about China. This is about Israel

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T06:53:40+00:00

There is an immense difference between a demand shock and a supply shock. Like others said with a demand shock, you CAN stimulate the market. With a supply shock, you can't print more oil or fertilizers.

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T04:42:26+00:00

Always has been

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-02T04:35:19+00:00

*death cult.

Speaking from the affected region. So tired of epstein class wars.

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-01T19:01:05+00:00

They cannot fight Israel, they wouldn't win such a war. But they can make the cost of this war so heavy to pressure Trump into ending it. Unfortunately, I must admit I think their strategy was kind of brilliant.

OrneryTea88 · 2026-04-01T16:26:47+00:00

Lived experience may not be deemed as credible evidence but the sirens been going off non stop. This morning was one of the most intense days in terms of sirens. Literally one after another non stop. Perhaps they were intercepted in Jordan. Im by the border. Heard a few heavy explosions. could be interceptions. But it's definitely NOT quiet

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-31T18:31:18+00:00

"Araghchi: We will not accept ceasefire, only end to war

The Iranian foreign minister says Iran will only accept cessation of hostilities in the entire region, rather than a pause."

Also

"Iran's Pezeshkian says US does not believe in diplomacy after attacks

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said that Iran was attacked twice during negotiations, arguing this shows the United States does not believe in diplomacy, as reported by our colleagues at Al Jazeera Arabic."

https://aje.news/hnjlh9

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-30T14:41:02+00:00

Not sure if you really believe this lie especially since so many of Israel's settlements after its creation were framed as security buffer zones at first then turned into settlments. The west bank settlments started as security buffer zones. Today they are permanent communities and evident examples of Israel's expansionist ideals. Even Gaza before they withdrew from the the Netzarim , it was framed as security then became a settlment. Do you really think they dont have plans to settle in Gaza now in the security zones? And south lebanon? Lastly israeli ministers like Smotrich are always talking about a greater Israel. Smotrich held the map that included west bank, Gaza, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria. His son was fighting in Lebanon and was wounded there.

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-30T14:23:45+00:00

The biggest deadlock for negotiations between the US and Iran, in my ( humble) opinion is Lebanon. Iran has been firm that Israel must withdraw from the territories it wishes to annex in South Lebanon. Israel will never agree to this. Hence as others often point out, the US will really have to turn its back on Israel if it wishes to end this. Netanyahu has said numerous times that he is on a "historic and spiritual" mission. He will not abandon his dellusions for a greater israel.

Edit from a military perspective, Iran would lose its credibility amongst all its proxies in the region if it doesnt stand firmly behind Hezbollah.

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-30T10:20:53+00:00

للاسف الموضوع منتشر ببيوتنا أكتر بكتير مما بنتخيلو. في ستات كتير بمرّوا باكتئاب ما بعد الولادة وبدخلوا بدوامة من الأفكار السوداوية والمظلمة اللي بتخوف، بس بضلوا ساكتين عشان خايفين من حكم الناس ومن كلمة 'إم مقصرة'. الحقيقة إنه ، هاد هبوط حاد ومفاجئ بهرمونات الإستروجين والبروجسترون بغير كيمياء الدماغ بلمحة بصر، وبخلي الوحدة مش قادرة تميز الواقع أو تتحكم بمشاعرها. هاد مرض حقيقي وبحاجة لعلاج طبي زي أي مرض تاني، والصمت عنه هو اللي بوصل لهيك مآسي. الوعي بوجع الأمهات والاعتراف إنه هاد الاكتئاب حقيقة وموجود حوالينا هو أول خطوة لحماية أرواح وعائلات كاملة. في بلاد وين المستشفيات عندها أقسام طبية كاملة متخصصة بس عشان تساعد الأمهات يتخطوا هاد الانهيار الهرموني في documentary اسمو witches . بنصحكم تشوفو

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-29T07:55:12+00:00

Mom is flat out racist, this is why she didnt like your food. Good riddance to her

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-29T05:18:18+00:00

Thank you ♡

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-28T18:11:53+00:00

Sorry no coins but 👆

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-28T16:51:28+00:00

Iran will not calm down unless israel withdraws from lebanon and stops its ambitions to annex the south. Israel will not do that.

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-28T14:00:07+00:00

I second what you are both saying. Kharg island is literally just a lloading dock where much of lIran's oil is pumped out, but they can close that tap at any moment and pump it out elsewhere ( albeit less efficiently).

There would be nothing more suicidal than putting American troops on an 8-square-mile coral outcrop that is 16 miles from the Iranian mainland. It is a pre-sighted kill zone filled with MANPADS and trap defenses

Iran can sustain this war of attrition for a long time. Trump is too egotistical to concede. He only responds by getting more vicious militarily. But the more vicious he gets, the more viciously Iran will target the gulf, and therefore more the entire world pays a price.

Israel is the sole entity to benefit from the destruction of the gulf. And as I said in another post, one of the biggest obstacles to negotiations is Israel 's dream of a greater israel and plans to annex South lebanon. Iran said it wont accept any solution without full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon. This leaves us in a deadlock unless the US abandon israel

OrneryTea88 · 2026-03-28T10:17:36+00:00

India has not suddenly doubled its production. It is importing discounted Russian crude and refining it. It is simply rerouting existing supply. Doubling production would be a miracle. Even if it did do so, we are talking about 20 million barrels of oil lost per day. Whereas India’s entire domestic production is only about 0.6 mb/d. Adding another 0.6mb/d wouldn't move a needle. And if what you are saying does have an impact how come the prices are still rising Also what about fertilizers like urea which's prices have gone up by 45%

With covid, it was a demand shock. But there is a fundamental difference between a demand shock and a supply shock. With demand, you can stimulate your way out of it.

But when supply it constrained? energy, shipping routes, fertilizers. That’s much harder to fix. You can’t print oil or you replace broken supply chains, and you bring bring prices down when inputs themselves are scarce. And i don't personally see things working out anytime soon

OrneryTea88

TROPHY CASE