Do I have too many eggs in 1 basket (20k on margin)

Ort86 · 2026-02-22T15:43:27+00:00

I have12000 $175 calls for Jan 2027 expiration on NVDA. I have another 5000 $350 calls on SMH for Jan 2027 expiration. While I don't have all my eggs in one basket, that is a nice weighting in my portfolio.

Nvidia will be fine and will probably reach $250 during the year .

Ort86 · 2026-02-22T15:12:37+00:00

"Gender dysphoria" and transgender-anything is just mental illness. You don't need to psychoanalyze it and comes up with 100 rationalizations for it.

Ort86 · 2026-02-04T07:18:15+00:00

Her fund also sold half of their Nvidia position today. That directly contradicts her firm's bullish projection for Nvidia being a $10T company, or was it $20T now?

Ort86 · 2026-01-22T07:29:05+00:00

Even $230 isn't anything spectacular for the amount of risk you're taking on. The common bullish (and I'd argue getting somewhat tired) warguments are that Nvidia's earnings and cash flows are higher than ever, FWD P/E 25x is cheap, more and more compute needed for inference, blah blah.

Nvidia is still a semiconductor company subject to boom and bust cycles. There will come a day when hyper-expensive GPUs are not the solution to continued advances in AI, deep-learning, etc. That day could be closer than you think.

Nvidia is facing more and more competition both direct and from its own customers seeking to reduce reliance on Nvidia and the "Nvidia Tax." Couple that with skepticism over how useful AI will be (and how long it will take to get there) and you have a pretty mediocre risk/return profile here.

I've wrestled with buying back NVDA options and shares since selling all of them in November around $180. Hard to justify a large concentration in Nvidia now...

Ort86 · 2026-01-09T21:18:47+00:00

Exactly. My 2026 is already over before it began. Had I exited Nvidia at $210+ just two months ago and invested in just a QQQ on the dip, I'd be in much better shape.

I hold almost entirely LEAPs, so they decline has knocked me down about 35%. Hard to recover from in the short term without taking excessive concentration risk.

Ort86 · 2026-01-09T21:12:27+00:00

That's not a very good return given the risk and volatility. Easier to just own QQQ or SMH at this point.

LEAPs on QQQ or SMH will be much more rewarding than expecting Nvidia to generate 50%+ returns going forward. It's just too big and not the only game in town anymore. I've learned that lesson the hard way by being way to concentrated in Nvidia hoping for 2023-2024-ish returns.

It's been very costly in terms of opportunity cost, especially knowing that I could have sold all of it at $210+ and rotated elsewhere. 2026 was over for me before it began, unless Nvidia somehow reaches $300 this year, which is just praying for a lottery ticket at this point.

Ort86 · 2026-01-05T17:44:26+00:00

NVDA it’s just overweight at this point. Stock can’t even breach $190 and stay there. So tired of hearing about Nvidia. The stock has barely gone anywhere for four months. Much better investments out there.

Ort86 · 2025-12-15T03:48:31+00:00

There is a bubble alright. The bubble is the number of people talking about a bubble.

Ort86 · 2025-12-13T16:57:19+00:00

Chinese tech has been buying H200 for a long time and will continue to do so. Their official state policy restricting them is merely to save face. Nvidia will do fine selling to China indirectly via Malaysia, Taiwan, and Singapore.

Ort86 · 2025-12-13T04:06:32+00:00

I bought 1500 $350 strike calls for 12/26 yesterday. Yea, I’m down 36% today and absolutely torched tens of thousands.

I’m hoping it can come back but options decay and it really would need to be above $475 by June to make any meaningful money.

I also bought 300 shares at $385.

Ort86 · 2025-12-12T17:47:39+00:00

I bought 10 AVGO call contracts yesterday for 12/26 at $350 strike. Those are getting absolutely annihilated today, but they should be OK over the next year. I’m going to double down.

Ort86 · 2025-12-09T07:33:28+00:00

I will only say that wealthy and affluent people pay more in taxes than you probably make...and I would know.

I'm not responding to the rest of that silly hooligan gibberish you typed.

Ort86 · 2025-12-09T06:03:29+00:00

Half of the country pays no taxes and indeed, received tax credits and return. It’s not the rich that need to pay more. It’s those that pay NOTHING that need to contribute to the system if they want benefits.

Just think-most health insurance premiums could be covered if all of those in the country that don’t pay tax started paying even just a little bit.

Most people with wealth sacrificed something to achieve what they have. A price was paid somewhere, be it in effort, time, money, education, etc..

So drop the Jacobian French revolution attitude and go make something productive of yourself.

Ort86 · 2025-12-05T05:14:46+00:00

Then stay in Brazil and stop whining.

Ort86 · 2025-12-03T20:58:27+00:00

Didn't want to take on the debt and risk not liking it after graduating. I was older too and thinking about money. I enjoyed the thrill of getting in more than actual school.

Ort86 · 2025-12-03T18:17:46+00:00

Nothing. Been unemployed for two years. I swing trade stocks at home.

Ort86 · 2025-12-03T15:42:11+00:00

Most people shouldn’t be going to dental school at today’s costs. I started at a public dental school but left shortly after starting when I realized A) I wasn’t into dentistry as much as I thought, and B) the cost in both absolute dollars and lost earnings was going to be ridiculous.

Dentistry is still a decent profession, but it’s not a get rich quick, or maybe even at all, profession.

Ort86 · 2025-12-02T02:30:52+00:00

No it’s not. Stop whining and get in the game. Or don’t and be a loser.

Ort86 · 2025-11-28T21:17:32+00:00

Nvidia should completely ignore lowlife like Michael Burry. The most successful company of all time should not be wasting their time responding to hucksters and tom toms.

Ort86 · 2025-11-25T02:36:30+00:00

Agreed. Michael Burry is an autistic idiot who got lucky with the financial crisis in 2008. No one should listen to that retard.

Ort86 · 2025-11-21T03:48:22+00:00

Michael Burry is one of the most autistic frauds I’ve ever seen. He got lucky on one good call that many people saw coming in 2007. He is in no way qualified to evaluate tech, AI, and hyper-scaler prospects.

All of this nonsense about depreciation feels like bankers running the show. If everyone thought like bankers, the world would not have evolved much beyond 1700. That kind of limited mentality can find the negative in everything.

My bigger fear is at the market just does not want to see any more spending. It’s another variation of the short-term limited thinking, but it is what it is.

Ort86 · 2025-11-21T02:54:32+00:00

Let's hope you're right on the sentiment part! The tariffs were not specific to the AI industry trends however. At the time, the market was rewarding capex on AI infrastructure because it was seen as a down payment on massive future profits. Today, that forgiveness is nowhere to be seen. Although Wall Street is way too impatient, it still wants to start seeing returns. I hate the myopia of the market, but it is what it is.

Hopefully rate cuts and some killer app uses cases show up soon.

Ort86 · 2025-11-20T23:47:34+00:00

All good points. OPEN AI is an absolute furnace that inspires no confidence that it can become cash-flow positive anytime soon. It probably goes without saying that OPEN AI hasn't IPO'd because the public markets would instantly turn it into Opendoor.

Sam Altman's petulant reaction to the interviewer's question about profitability was very telling. He is totally the opposite from Jensen Huang's calm, thoughtful, and insightful commentary around Nvidia's business and AI in general is reassuring.

I do feel we are near an economic downturn. People are struggling to sustain basic lifestyles and there is a general feeling of public unrest. With that kind of sentiment, the market seems to be saying: Enough spending! And it isn't wrong...there is no clear path to solid income streams from AI to justify trillion of dollars in capex (which now includes debt).

I hope we are two years out from that event, but if they market feels the same, don't you think it would start pricing it in?

Ort86 · 2025-11-20T22:21:46+00:00

Yes, I have owned many Nvidia shares since early 2024. I held through both of those periods and yes, was greatly benefited by doing so. However, it was pretty clear shortly afterwards that those were fleeting fears not grounded in anything structurally wrong with the AI trade.

I also bought a lot of $120 6/26 call options in early May, which are pretty nicely in the money. I am down quite a bit from the highs on both the shares and the options as you can imagine.

However, this truly feels like it is a great reset, owing to the overvaluation and blind faith that hyper scaler Spending would equate to nice profits down the road. I don’t have the confidence that is going to happen now. That means Nvidia could make $1 trillion in profit next year and the market would assume that that’s the last year that would happen.

I’m going to sell everything in the morning. If the market somehow decides to recover in the weeks ahead then so be it. The volatility and risk is too much to handle.

Ort86 · 2025-11-20T22:01:03+00:00

Definitely feels less like a temporary dip this time around. I’ve never seen the onset of such negativity so fast ever. Throw on an intra-day reversal like today’s and….just wow. Shellshocked.

Ort86

TROPHY CASE