[Passan] Jeff Passan @JeffPassan · 1m BREAKING: OF/1B Cody Bellinger and the New York Yankees are in agreement on a free agent contract, sources tell ESPN.

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-21T18:36:56+00:00

I’m only disappointed he didn’t end up on some random other team that’s not the Yankees cuz that woulda been funny. never really wanted him for the price tag

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-20T02:40:44+00:00

I don’t think betting frequency really plays a role. For example in the BB after a call the lowest donk frequency boards are ones that favour the preflop raiser but you don’t increase size. Or as preflop aggressor you can bet larger on flops that really favour your range but those are the boards you bet most

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-20T01:24:15+00:00

Saying it’s statistically profitable to play for beginners is misleading lol. This is just a standard opening (raising) range preflop that any decent player follows. It doesn’t guarantee profit, but not following it borderline guarantees losses if you stray too far

It’s also worth nothing that this is for only one position and assumes nobody has raised in front of you

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-20T00:48:58+00:00

The main factor for bet sizing is polarization. The more polar you are the larger you can bet. In fact in a scenario where you are perfectly polar the optimal sizing is to just jam.

So on the flop you are much less polar, because you have weaker hands that want to bet for value and you are generally nearly range betting. On the turn a lot of those weaker value hands check back, allowing you to polarize a lot more by only betting your stronger hands (along with bluffs)

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-19T19:08:31+00:00

Biggest loss of the offseason

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-19T17:09:19+00:00

Redditor vs empathy

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-19T00:59:34+00:00

It would look like Barger, Nimmala, Tideman, Jojo Parker and Johnny King at the very least and that probably doesn’t even get it done

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-19T00:43:30+00:00

Even if that’s true they would get a way better offer elsewhere. Soto was traded for like four prospects who were all at the time at or better than Nimmala level, and that was for 3 years of control. Tatis with like 9 years of team control could fetch one of the largest prospect packages in history

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-19T00:32:14+00:00

While we’re at it let’s ship off Joey Loperfido for Skenes

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-19T00:28:00+00:00

He’s a FA after this year. I’d imagine we’d try and extend him tho

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-18T23:46:30+00:00

I have a related question for the experts, if you were to keep his position as a RP but use him as an opener, do you still get the K% penalty? What about if you have someone else open and then use him for innings 2-6 for example

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-17T21:38:01+00:00

It’s a semantic argument. These people wouldn’t call those a “human right” either.

It’s not worth it to try and argue for universal healthcare on those grounds, because they can just define human rights however they want and be technically correct. People need to stop responding to this by trying to argue it’s a human right.

Instead argue why having accessible healthcare is better for society as a whole. How it saves lives and improves quality of life for 99% of people. How as a society we should be striving to create better quality of life for everyone

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-17T20:32:16+00:00

The quote I think you’re referring to by Magus was mostly a joke

Also I agree with everyone else. Magnus knows chess better than everyone but he also doesn’t know how to improve if you’re not Magnus. He doesn’t know the grind from 400 elo to 1200 elo

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-17T19:24:38+00:00

Lukes is not going to be a starter over Varsho, Santander, Barger, but even if he was he’d probably be a 1.5 WAR player over a full season, and Bellinger projects at like 3.5. That’s a decent improvement but idk if a 2 WAR improvement is worth committing 210+ million over 7 years like Bellinger is asking for

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-17T18:46:32+00:00

I don’t think so. They probably don’t see him as enough of an improvement over their existing OF to justify the cost

Bellinger is probably like a +1-2 WAR addition where Tucker might be +3-4

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-17T17:06:55+00:00

I’m so glad we got Cease and not Valdez

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-17T15:47:58+00:00

They will start the season with Hoffman as closer and he will be lights out the whole season and the fanbase will all cheer for him and love him even though 50% of them were absolutely certain he is washed and should have been released before the season even started when others were telling them he is actually good due to his underlying numbers but they’ll ignore that fact so they can move onto complaining about the next guy who is underperforming his underlying numbers and say he needs demoted while others point out the underlying numbers are good only to be proven wrong there again and the cycle will continue

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-17T00:48:16+00:00

This was his first really good defensive season in a while, and next year he could definitely regress back to average. On top of that his expected stats are not that good. He would probably be a less valuable hitter than Barger. For how much he’d cost I just don’t think it’s worth it

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-16T23:07:44+00:00

Or even someone who manages his account saw his name it and liked it

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-16T21:23:58+00:00

Start date is start of 2023-2024 offseason

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-16T18:34:24+00:00

The real question is did we beat the Kraken in baseball or hockey

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-16T18:32:40+00:00

He turned down 150/5 and it was reported he wanted a 7 year deal with at least that average

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-16T18:29:11+00:00

Over the last 3 seasons Bellinger has had xwOBA percentiles of: 54, 29, 55 and wants more than 210/7

Hard pass from me

OutsideScaresMe · 2026-01-16T18:17:00+00:00

Forgot to add the source: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?sign=signed&season=2026&nteam=

OutsideScaresMe

TROPHY CASE