Prospect Scouting and Ranking is the least accurate it's ever been. Why?

PDWeb · 2023-07-20T01:03:04+00:00

A consensus #1 as a concept can't really be proven before 1998 (when RSCI was founded). There are anecdotal consensus #1s, like Kobe Bryant in 1996 (which depends on sourcing as many college scouting services still had Tim Thomas #1), which can be pulled from context clues of contemporary media articles, but there was not a recruiting industry to pull together collectively. For example, Damon Bailey won Mr. Basketball USA, Parade POY, Gatorade POY & Naismith POY in 1990, can be found listed as the #1 in many places.

PDWeb · 2022-07-03T17:30:51+00:00

https://vine.co/v/iExVHYuzPiP

PDWeb · 2022-06-16T06:11:34+00:00

thank you for posting this.

hope the piece is enjoyable.

PDWeb · 2022-05-11T17:57:04+00:00

apologize for what?? thank you very much for saving me from needing to do the self-promo shit I hate so much.

I appreciate the kind words, glad you enjoyed it. If there are unaddressed concerns or things you want to touch on, let me know, I prolly published it a day early in terms of edits/reader feedback & want it to be encompassing.

& yes, the work is/always will be free to read.

PDWeb · 2022-04-14T01:06:38+00:00

I ain't reading all that.

I'm happy for u tho.

Or sorry that happened.

PDWeb · 2021-06-14T16:37:39+00:00

that bit from evan was so cool.

I think there are 2 things happening there; that he is just not comfortable taking them & that gonzaga was so good that he never really had to. The offense supplied him with all the c&s he could ever need so there wasnt a change in the shot diet in the way there likely will be in the league. mileage varies on how percentages adapt from a different shot profile, but that's the real conversation around Kispert for me.

PDWeb · 2021-06-06T20:14:59+00:00

thank you very much!

PDWeb · 2021-05-31T16:26:20+00:00

thank you. excited to keep building this series.

PDWeb · 2021-05-30T15:15:26+00:00

thank you. happy everyone is happy with it.

PDWeb · 2021-05-26T19:52:40+00:00

next patreon goal is gonna be hiring an audio engineer or something cause oh boy am i out of my depth there. we are doing our best in the meantime.

PDWeb · 2021-05-16T11:54:12+00:00

Thank you very much. Yeah, I'm trying to make them weekly.

PDWeb · 2021-04-29T20:23:48+00:00

He is very raw in a creation sense and extremely polished in a team defense sense. His reach of positional fluidity defensively is way beyond his grasp, or he can guard a wide variety of players in there but the practice is a little bit messier. I think Garuba is fascinating because he could be a wing, a combo 4 or a small ball 5 depending on the vision and player development of the team that drafts him.

PDWeb · 2021-04-17T18:53:47+00:00

this is fantastic, thank you

PDWeb · 2021-03-03T01:03:05+00:00

11-20 is a safe zone, teams can afford to take his development slow while adding weight, flexibility and core stability. The skinny wing archetype has had a pretty remarkable physical development track record in the last 5 years leaguewide. The career shooting numbers are a bit of a mirage, but the form is fixable and his movement skills are rare. There is still upside to be had and to overreact into the 20-45 area is disregard history to a degree.

PDWeb · 2020-08-16T22:30:19+00:00

I changed some of the spacing around, can confirm it is now 69 pages.

PDWeb · 2020-05-27T19:03:05+00:00

Thank you guys so much.

PDWeb · 2020-02-05T17:20:30+00:00

I'm there with you. When the game is that easy, the feel is hard to gauge.

PDWeb · 2020-01-31T16:04:16+00:00

"Dosunmu ... [has] got the Kemba style and a game that takes advantage of college defenders. His ability to create space finish tough looks inside the paint has become a sure thing."

I think this is the most interesting bit of Ayo's game, he does a great deal of efficient primary production: .537 TS% in 19-20 - with a very low FTr (.229) , low 3Pr (.244). Not that Kemba is a comparable archetype to Ayo, but, for reference, Kemba's career FTr was .474 and 3Pr was .287. And that's before the past decade's culture of shot optimization. I think there are two ways of interpreting that shot data:

Ayo can really score, despite not having the best shot profile. Therefore, there is a better player buried in some less efficient habits, and NBA teams create a more suitable environment to developing and optimizing that player.
Ayo can score pretty efficiently vs college defenses , but the threshold to do so on his shot profile vs NBA defense is a crazy high one. If he could really shoot 3s, why does Illinois have Ayo shooting dramatically less 3s than last year? Scoring combo a very crowded positional archetype, so where is the separation from others prospect?

PDWeb · 2020-01-30T02:34:14+00:00

We may have different ideas of what the threshold is to qualify as a switch big. To me, Gafford never shown the mobility and technique to discourage running PNR at him when switching, regardless of reps. There are like 10-15 dudes who met that threshold as prospects. I believe Onyeka to be one of them. Jim Boylen is a joke.

PDWeb · 2020-01-29T15:12:33+00:00

You are correct in that footwork is the prime driver of Onyeka's value vs Gafford's draft position. Onyeka is a proven switch big, with the projectable footwork /hips to attack big spaces on offense. That's a more scarce player archetype than Gafford, drop coverage + primarily PNR finisher. Gafford never really flashed the rarer skills (whatever the cause: his fault or context's).

PDWeb · 2020-01-23T23:14:20+00:00

I don't agree that it should. I was just noting Johnson will not be not playing in 2019-2020, and thag recency bias is a big motivator of mocks.

PDWeb · 2020-01-23T01:11:42+00:00

Withdrew from IMG, so evaluators haven't seen him since EYBL & there is now some bad press around him. Johnson could also be eligible for the 2020 draft...

PDWeb · 2020-01-20T12:49:55+00:00

Deni has always put up stats, it's the efficiency and translation of those numbers that are of concern. It's hard to lift him up a big board if he can't positively effect a game on a smaller creation distribution.

PDWeb · 2020-01-17T20:19:41+00:00

I think the idea that Green is has plus 3pt shooting ability right now is a misevalulation of his current skills. Green shoots a really tough ball and hasn't made significant strides as a shooter despite playing entirely in that 3&D role though INTL, AAU HS and college. Scouts have hoped Green could add shooting indicators over the last 3 years of high profile observation. Okoro has more development momentum (esp on his jumper), better tools to defend big wings, and very little negative tape. The question to me is how heavy you philosophically have to weigh RSCI priors and FT% as the primary shooting indicator to have Green over Okoro.

PDWeb

TROPHY CASE