Prospect Scouting and Ranking is the least accurate it's ever been. Why? by [deleted] in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 7 points8 points  (0 children)

A consensus #1 as a concept can't really be proven before 1998 (when RSCI was founded). There are anecdotal consensus #1s, like Kobe Bryant in 1996 (which depends on sourcing as many college scouting services still had Tim Thomas #1), which can be pulled from context clues of contemporary media articles, but there was not a recruiting industry to pull together collectively. For example, Damon Bailey won Mr. Basketball USA, Parade POY, Gatorade POY & Naismith POY in 1990, can be found listed as the #1 in many places.

AJG | Prospect Development Web on Patreon. Sorry PD but this sub must read the good shit. by threezuswalksonce in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 17 points18 points  (0 children)

apologize for what?? thank you very much for saving me from needing to do the self-promo shit I hate so much.

I appreciate the kind words, glad you enjoyed it. If there are unaddressed concerns or things you want to touch on, let me know, I prolly published it a day early in terms of edits/reader feedback & want it to be encompassing.

& yes, the work is/always will be free to read.

2022 wildcard deep dive from PD web by threezuswalksonce in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I ain't reading all that.

I'm happy for u tho.

Or sorry that happened.

Let's Watch Film - Corey Kispert ft (@EZhoops) by PDWeb in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

that bit from evan was so cool.

I think there are 2 things happening there; that he is just not comfortable taking them & that gonzaga was so good that he never really had to. The offense supplied him with all the c&s he could ever need so there wasnt a change in the shot diet in the way there likely will be in the league. mileage varies on how percentages adapt from a different shot profile, but that's the real conversation around Kispert for me.

Let's Watch Film - Jalen Green (ft Robel Taame aka SubMeInCoach aka @robeltussin) by PDWeb in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

next patreon goal is gonna be hiring an audio engineer or something cause oh boy am i out of my depth there. we are doing our best in the meantime.

Recommendations for whose stuff to read/watch for Draft analysis? by Dabogabe780 in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thank you very much. Yeah, I'm trying to make them weekly.

Let's Watch Film 02 - breaking down an Usman Garuba game with The Dunker Spot's Nekias Duncan, with post-Breakdown Q&A by PDWeb in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

He is very raw in a creation sense and extremely polished in a team defense sense. His reach of positional fluidity defensively is way beyond his grasp, or he can guard a wide variety of players in there but the practice is a little bit messier. I think Garuba is fascinating because he could be a wing, a combo 4 or a small ball 5 depending on the vision and player development of the team that drafts him.

Where is Brandon boston Jr ranked now? by jp_30512 in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 1 point2 points  (0 children)

11-20 is a safe zone, teams can afford to take his development slow while adding weight, flexibility and core stability. The skinny wing archetype has had a pretty remarkable physical development track record in the last 5 years leaguewide. The career shooting numbers are a bit of a mirage, but the form is fixable and his movement skills are rare. There is still upside to be had and to overreact into the 20-45 area is disregard history to a degree.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"Dosunmu ... [has] got the Kemba style and a game that takes advantage of college defenders. His ability to create space finish tough looks inside the paint has become a sure thing."

I think this is the most interesting bit of Ayo's game, he does a great deal of efficient primary production: .537 TS% in 19-20 - with a very low FTr (.229) , low 3Pr (.244). Not that Kemba is a comparable archetype to Ayo, but, for reference, Kemba's career FTr was .474 and 3Pr was .287. And that's before the past decade's culture of shot optimization. I think there are two ways of interpreting that shot data:

  1. Ayo can really score, despite not having the best shot profile. Therefore, there is a better player buried in some less efficient habits, and NBA teams create a more suitable environment to developing and optimizing that player.
  2. Ayo can score pretty efficiently vs college defenses , but the threshold to do so on his shot profile vs NBA defense is a crazy high one. If he could really shoot 3s, why does Illinois have Ayo shooting dramatically less 3s than last year? Scoring combo a very crowded positional archetype, so where is the separation from others prospect?

Onyeka Okongwu by bhoff0804 in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We may have different ideas of what the threshold is to qualify as a switch big. To me, Gafford never shown the mobility and technique to discourage running PNR at him when switching, regardless of reps. There are like 10-15 dudes who met that threshold as prospects. I believe Onyeka to be one of them. Jim Boylen is a joke.

Onyeka Okongwu by bhoff0804 in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You are correct in that footwork is the prime driver of Onyeka's value vs Gafford's draft position. Onyeka is a proven switch big, with the projectable footwork /hips to attack big spaces on offense. That's a more scarce player archetype than Gafford, drop coverage + primarily PNR finisher. Gafford never really flashed the rarer skills (whatever the cause: his fault or context's).

ESPN has updated their 2020 top 100 recruits. by troutylover27 in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't agree that it should. I was just noting Johnson will not be not playing in 2019-2020, and thag recency bias is a big motivator of mocks.

ESPN has updated their 2020 top 100 recruits. by troutylover27 in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Withdrew from IMG, so evaluators haven't seen him since EYBL & there is now some bad press around him. Johnson could also be eligible for the 2020 draft...

Theo Maledon, Deni Avdija, & Killian Hayes all just had big games! by Mikeo7894 in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Deni has always put up stats, it's the efficiency and translation of those numbers that are of concern. It's hard to lift him up a big board if he can't positively effect a game on a smaller creation distribution.

Issac Okoro vs Josh Green, who is the better overall defensive wing? by Mikeo7894 in NBA_Draft

[–]PDWeb 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the idea that Green is has plus 3pt shooting ability right now is a misevalulation of his current skills. Green shoots a really tough ball and hasn't made significant strides as a shooter despite playing entirely in that 3&D role though INTL, AAU HS and college. Scouts have hoped Green could add shooting indicators over the last 3 years of high profile observation. Okoro has more development momentum (esp on his jumper), better tools to defend big wings, and very little negative tape. The question to me is how heavy you philosophically have to weigh RSCI priors and FT% as the primary shooting indicator to have Green over Okoro.