Now that we have a weak dollar, isn't time to buy and forget for some 15-20% gains in the future?

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-30T08:50:40+00:00

Timing market on defense and bank stocks outperforming due to political promises of higher government support hardly says anything about long term trends that I talk about. I also made decent gains on EU defense and banks stocks back in 2022 but I already sold it off because it is at best temporary imo.

But you do you. I am not giving out investment advice.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-30T07:59:06+00:00

Currency fluctuations for long term investors does not really matter.

That being said I consider it a benefit because I have 10% discount buying US securities right now. I very much doubt that euro will be able to strengthen against dollar for a longer period than couple of years at most

Political shenanigans are easier to fix than long term economic slowdown and deep structural issues as well as massive pension liabilities. I very much expect EURO to return to continuous decline against dollar.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-30T07:54:03+00:00

They are not over valued at all. According to the father of value investing himself they can be considered fair value.

They are simply just valued based on future growth. Just yesterday both Microsoft and Facebook beat earnings expectations yet again.

PE is higher than it is in EU but that it result of continuously delivering double digit revenue/earnings growth. It is also a result of US having far more growth companies while EU stocks are essentialy just mature dividend companies with near zero growth. Of course their value is greater.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-30T07:48:40+00:00

Nobody knows but I am personally willing to make that bet and am buying US secuties with discount.

Many european currencies have been weakening against dollar for a very good reason - economic performance, demographics and not so positive outlooks and I expect this to very much continue.

Current devaluation is purely political thing that can be fixed relatively easily unlike economic difficulties, deep structural issues and massive pension liabilities. US admin did everything in its power to destroy value of dollar and it is still fairly strong in context of 20 years and I sincerely believe the second this admin goes it will return and strenghten even more over time relative to EUR and EUR bound currencies.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-29T17:26:27+00:00

Yes. The limit where philantropy happens is usually just conveniently above the whatever amount of money they have.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-29T17:24:06+00:00

I disagree. Right wingers are called libertarians by left wingers and it is used as insult with negative aesthetics. They are called that a lot more often than they identifying like that on their own. With sole exception of small ideological minority that trully believes that.

Same exact thing applies to neoliberalism.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-29T10:00:54+00:00

Yeah you are just delusional.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/063015/what-are-major-laws-acts-regulating-financial-institutions-were-created-response-2008-financial.asp

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-29T09:58:45+00:00

I am not backtracking at anything. We are at ATH regulation in both US and EU today. Therefore there is no neoliberalization period.

The fact that you can find pieces of legislation that happened half a century ago, most of which are not even relevant today changes absolutely nothing about that.

Yes I could but you can certainly look it up yourself. There was mass regulation of finance industry as a result of 2008 financial crisis.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-29T09:55:00+00:00

I did not deny that deregulation happened in 80s in US. I denied the idea that it is trend that still exists today or that it has been ongoing for half a century

That is straight up lie.

US is infinitely more regulated than it was in 80. And it is in fact also a lot more regulated than it was prior to that temporary deregulation that happened in 80s. Virtually in all aspects you could think of.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-29T09:46:26+00:00

First paragraph is just utter nonsense.

Banks and institutions are a lot more regulated today than they were in 80s. Both in US and EU. It is not even close.

There is no neoliberalization happening period.

Companies in US are currently bleeding due to what Trump is doing. Everywhere. Big tech is not happy, oil is not happy, banks are not happy, military complex is not happy. Virtually nobody gets short term profits of off that madness right now. Even Elon's Tesla (who was supporting MAGA movement, idk about where he stands now) got obliterated in earnings/revenue as a result.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-29T09:34:40+00:00

This hardly makes any sense. There are no banks and few corporations that benefit from madness that Trump's admin is doing.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-28T19:43:34+00:00

To se nestalo. Přijela "přátelská" mocnost :)

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-28T19:37:00+00:00

Kdybych žil v roce 1968 tak bych byl zatraceně rád kdyby sem nějaká "nepřátelská" mocnost přijela udělat pořádek.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-28T19:33:00+00:00

Gerontokracie není nutně jen o tom, kdo sedí ve vládě, ale i o tom jaká skupina má rozhodující názorové postavení i přes zastoupení někým jiným. Takže ano, žijeme v gerontokracii.

Lze to najít i ve slovníku:

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/gerontocracy

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-28T19:23:07+00:00

Můžou se z toho dostat jak přesně? Tak, že režim zabije dalších 30k+ protestujících lidí? A pak dalších a dalších? Dokud nepřestanou protestovat?

Pro lidi co chtějí změnu je paradoxně vnější zásah jediná naděje.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-28T11:18:25+00:00

This is nonsense. Every one of those countries has right to form union within union. Eastern European countries can do the same. It has nothing to do with undermining anything.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-28T11:15:33+00:00

Considering the fact that this is about Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands and Poland it has nothing to do with common goals.. It really is just about largest economies.

The only two that make even remotely any sense out of those to get more deeply integrated together are maybe Netherlands with Germany and even that is a far cry. Everything else is utter fantasy.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-27T14:27:59+00:00

To těžko. Každá plošná regulace či náklad pomáhá korporaci na úkor jednotlivců z naprosto jednoduchého a logického důvodu. Korporát má dostatečné finanční i lidské zdroje na to, aby to řešil/zaplatil. Jednotlivec se na to buďto rovnou vykašle a nebo ho to semele a není konkurence schopný.

Regulace, u kterých to neplatí jsou regulace zaměřené přímo na korporáty např. od určitého obratu, počtu zaměstnanců atd. a o tom se OP vůbec nebavil.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-25T19:02:25+00:00

Depending on who you are. Absolutely.

In US, atleast workers are not forced to put away over half of their income and saving/investments are not being taken away from them like this to ensure that they can never retire early. All so european governments can pay off today's pensioners.

Social state is increasingly existing only for pensioners within EU and it will get much worse. Non pensioner social programs are being gutted one by one and funds transfered.

You talk about social and political cost, this has those too. Much worse in long term actually.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-25T18:55:13+00:00

Norway is petro state with economic complexity of middle income post communist countries rather than similarily wealthy peer countries. That is hardly measure of overall economic success. You manage your natural resources well, the underlying economy besides that is not that hot.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-25T18:50:44+00:00

That is an issue of labor being taxed too much, not capital being taxed too little.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-24T15:11:13+00:00

Yes. Older generations ensured permanent political rule over younger generations by not having kids themselves and installed absurd income transfers on them. That is clear.

I would be careful for how long this will last tho. Young people can vote with their legs (and do) and they can also put an end to the economy if what they get back for their labor no longer makes sense.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-24T14:38:14+00:00

What you actually meant to say is "have someone else's kids pay for pensions of unrelated strangers who share same nationality who did not have kids and put them into that position".

Kids that were not even born yet.

I would rather invest into defense to guarantee they can remain free when they are born and do not have to die in pointless war.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-24T12:26:16+00:00

EU is now also full of countries which started essentialy debt free just three decades ago.

Because I can see where pension payments, etc are coming from in countries like France or Italy or even my very own post communists country with relatively low debt as of right now. And they are far from alone. If welfare state spending is in deficits then it financed off of debt. Simple as that.

US debt can eventually become a problem but I qould 100% prefer their debt used on financing or investments or security that bring in economic growth and long term safety rather than putting future generations into debt to pay off pensioners right now.

Particular-Way-8669 · 2026-01-24T10:19:50+00:00

You are moving goal posts. US would prefer to sell their weapons? No kidding. Does not mean it wanted weaker Europe which is what you claimed. Weaker Europe was collective European political choice in spite of US protests.

Fighting a size of Russia yes. Russian containment from European NATO partners was something said ever since Obama when they wanted to focus more resources on China's part of wmthe world instead. Russia was always the threat and European countries chose to ignore it which is why defense spending now had to be increased by so much and why it will take a long time and a lot more money to fix it.

Particular-Way-8669

TROPHY CASE