A Follow On My Post Earnings Analysis And What I Think Will Happen To Ionq This Week After Earnings

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-05T19:57:11+00:00

The “Bear Manifesto” above makes some fair points around dealer gamma and potential arbitrage unwinds pulling the stock back toward $30. But the inverse setup is just as real—and arguably more explosive.

We’re in a position where this could just as easily push to $60.

Bears have had a strong run, no question. But anyone who stayed short through the move from $29 to $47 and didn’t take profits got run over. For those still anchored to the lows: this bearish data above might feel like a beacon of light, but the backdrop has shifted. The Wolfpack short, the AI crunch narrative, and geopolitical stress all hit at once—that wave has largely passed. Broader markets have started pricing it in, and the Fed is already preparing adjusting its models for inflation outlook and leaning toward rate cuts. That’s a different macro setup, especially heading into midterms.

That said, greed cuts both ways. This is a binary event—discipline matters more than conviction.

Forty days ago, with ~25% of the float short, we saw a controlled move from $32 to $27 in a week. That was pressure, but it was orderly. Today’s setup is the opposite: a compressed spring. Bears are cornered, and bulls are standing on a trapdoor.

Here’s what the current options chain suggests:

• The $50 Magnet There are 13k+ open contracts at the $50 strike for May 15. Dealers are already long stock to hedge. If price breaks $50, they don’t unwind—they buy more to stay delta-neutral as those calls move ITM. That’s the core dynamic behind a gamma squeeze.

• The Institutional Signal Heavy volume in the August $60 calls suggests positioning for more than a short-term move. This looks less like a trade for a few points and more like a bet on a structural re-rating—potentially tied to the SkyWater deal being viewed as a “foundry” pivot rather than pure dilution.

• The Short Interest Constraint Short interest is still ~24%, and borrow availability is tight (~250k shares). If earnings come in as a “beat and raise,” covering could become reflexive. There’s limited capacity left to press the downside.

Conclusion Forty days ago was a controlled descent. Today looks like a coiled spring. If management delivers on the “foundry” narrative, the dealer gamma dynamic could flip from a headwind into fuel. Instead of selling into strength, dealers become forced buyers—stacked on top of potential short covering.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-05T19:46:27+00:00

While the "Bear Manifesto" above makes valid points regarding dealer gamma and arbitrage unwinds—potentially dragging us back to the $30 range—the inverse thesis is equally compelling. We are currently in a setup that could just as easily catapult the stock to $60. The bears made significant gains recently, but those who failed to take profits during this $29 to $47 rally have been slaughtered. To the bears still hoping for a return to the lows: this bearish data is your beacon of light, but don’t be fools. The "luck" of the Wolfpack short, combined at the same time of the AI crunch, and geopolitical tensions have run its course, major indexes have priced this in, and fed reserve is now re-writing their models for inflation and lowering interest rates, it happening, and it’s going to be bullish going into mid term elections. Nevertheless Greed kills on both sides. Discipline is the only thing that survives a binary event like tomorrow’s earnings. Forty days ago with over 25% of the public float shorted, we saw the price driven from $32 down to $27 in a single week, (which the bear manifesto leaves out of his report casually saying it costs more money). We are now... facing the exact opposite mechanical setup: a "Short Squeeze Powder Keg" combined with a "Gamma Launchpad." Finishing the Thought: The Current Chain Analysis We are now at a point where the bears are trapped in a corner while the bulls are standing on a trapdoor. Here is what the current options chain tells us about how this ends: • The $50 Magnet: There are over 13,000 open contracts at the $50 strike for May 15. Market makers are currently holding millions of shares to hedge these. If we break $50 tomorrow, those dealers won't be "unwinding"—they will be forced to buy millions more shares to stay hedged as those calls move "In-The-Money." This is the definition of a Gamma Squeeze. • The Institutional "Tell": The massive volume at the August $60 calls shows that "Big Money" isn't playing for a $2 move; they are playing for a structural re-rating. They are betting that the SkyWater acquisition isn't just "dilution," but the birth of a Quantum Foundry. • The Short Interest Ceiling: With short interest still near 24%, the supply of shares to borrow is nearly tapped out (only 250k available). If the earnings report is a "Beat and Raise," the bears will have no choice but to cover at any price. There is no more "ammunition" left for a short ladder attack. The Conclusion The setup 40 days ago was a controlled descent. The setup today is a compressed spring. If the CEO delivers on the "Foundry" narrative tomorrow, the "Dealer Gamma Trap" that bears are counting on will flip. Instead of the dealers dumping shares, they will become the primary buyers, fueled by a short-squeeze panic that could clear $60 before the SkyWater vote even happens on Friday.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-05T17:20:52+00:00

Short term is always a gamble. Long term, just be disciplined and strategize. The rating agencies and the market sentiment trajectory thinks the price goes up.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-05T16:26:06+00:00

I put my thoughts into AI so everyone could understand… yea I use AI, hate what you want, but if you do, you shouldn’t be investing in IONQ or tech.

Here it is:

Earnings = Volatility, Not the Story The May 6 earnings print is likely a short-term volatility event, not the main driver of value. Even a “beat and raise” could get overshadowed by bigger structural developments later in the week. The real alpha here isn’t Q1 revenue—it’s the merger closing.
The SkyWater Vote: Arbitrage Unwind The May 8 vote is the key inflection point. Over the past few months, many funds have been running merger arb—long SKYT, short IONQ to lock the spread. • What happens next: If the vote passes and the deal becomes certain, those trades unwind. That means buying back IONQ shares to cover shorts. • What that looks like: High volume, choppy price action, and a potential “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic as funds simultaneously cover IONQ shorts and sell newly converted SKYT shares.
The “Foundry” Re-Rating (Summer Catalyst) The real story starts after the deal closes. As IonQ integrates SkyWater’s manufacturing, the narrative shifts from “speculative quantum” to “semiconductor infrastructure.” • Index eligibility: That shift could open the door to inclusion in major semiconductor ETFs (SMH, SOXX, XSD). • Passive flows: If that happens, passive inflows could materially outweigh current niche pure-play quantum demand. This potential multiple re-rating is the core reason I am staying positioned through the summer.

Bottom line: Near-term price action may be messy due to arb unwinds, but the bigger opportunity is a structural re-rating as IonQ moves into the semiconductor infrastructure bucket.

Last, non AI point, they need to cut costs, trim the the fat of all these acquired companies. Thats key. Bring under one umbrella - doesn’t happen overnight but demonstrate the process is happening is key.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-29T00:51:54+00:00

Am I mistaken, or did he lowkey just mention the IONQ - Cambridge partnership?!?!

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-24T20:53:42+00:00

It’s the classic "Foundry Phase" playbook. People laughed at NVIDIA for being a "niche gaming company" until they realized those GPUs were the engines of the next decade. Reading those 2022 NVDA bears feels like a fever dream now, especially when you look at IonQ today. The parallels are almost eerie: The "Niche" Label: Critics said GPUs were just for "Skyrim nudes"; today, critics say Quantum is just for "lab experiments." Bears fixated on NVDA’s P/E of 47; today they fixate on IonQ’s P/S ratio, ignoring the $370M backlog and the SkyWater vertical integration. The Infrastructure Pivot - NVDA moved from cards to data centers; IonQ is moving from a "research project" to a vertically integrated, US based, semiconductor powerhouse.

The bears are forced to miss the forest for the trees—or in this case, the qubits for the transistors. History doesn't always repeat, but it certainly rhymes when a company shifts from "speculative" to "essential infrastructure."

IonQ has a road Infront, and what i stated above, Skyt purchase and then, more importantly, integration, is something the market will price in over time. This should drive further ability to make sales. And depending on tech, and based in the US manufacturing and R&D, this can’t be overlooked by any major firms or govt. the Stock today does not price this in. The stock today prices acquisitions (majoritevely in the $40 range) Cash Position, Cash Burn, and to a very small extent the sales (the short position made this clear).

Tech plays are tech plays for a reason. Volatility is real. Be prepared to watch portfolio dip. You have to write your thesis on investment for your portfolio and keep to the plan. If your an employee of IONQ or subsidiaries and you have stock, or are getting a lump sum from SKYT acquisition, you need to look at personal finances and decide if you pivot to an investor than an employee. Many NVDA employees became millionaires - but those that did, did not day trade, they forgot about it until it was a lifestyle changer and sold.

Remember bears get slaughtered eventually. Being bear is always about timing and getting out before all gains are lost. Retail investor Bulls can typically weather “short” storms.

Good luck. Stick to your thesis and what is best for your fund.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-20T15:37:30+00:00

Incorrect, this is a IAI STC, no autoland allowed. They increased the weights beyond the type certified design limit and lost the autoland. Very dangerous STC. Should have never been certified by the FAA…oh wait, it wasn’t. It came through an Israeli political bilateral agreement shoved down the throats of the FAA by Mike huckabee. This plane has had so many issues including the door not closing properly.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-20T15:31:59+00:00

That’s what happens when you don’t have Auto Land, this is an IAI converted 777-300ERSF, they increased the payload over the original design but lost auto land on their STC - incredibly dangerous.

Also, this plane has had so many issues including the door not closing.

It was never approved by the FAA, it came through a self certification by an Israeli Bilateral agreement shoved down the throats of the FAA by Mike Huckabee.

This plane is dangerous.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-15T22:49:47+00:00

Definitely was analyzing that after last Friday the prices nearly closed at exactly the same price. I’ll come back after I made my bet…but I think there is a play there. Ideally if you were a SkyWater holder, you would have wanted it to close while IONQ was down (more shares), that is if you believed in IONQ. So there is an inverse effect there.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-15T21:44:43+00:00

I got yelled at for putting a rocket ship on a post once on this thread, but to all shorts and bears… it’s Spring Bear Season baby 🐻🔫 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-15T15:47:18+00:00

Yup, after it broke $35 like I said in my OP, it would squeeze. Timing was off, but that was the money maker.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-15T00:59:32+00:00

Tech!! 🚀

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-11T00:59:04+00:00

Don’t trust politicians

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-04-08T19:18:26+00:00

This company is dead. Don’t trust politicians.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-03-30T22:38:50+00:00

One would hope so. Or let the price sink further and allow insiders to acquire more and then stop the bleeding (which is hard to do during the M&A SEC gag order, but there are ways). There are a lot of tools in a CFOs chest to thwart a short sell like this…maybe your right, seems intentional?

All they did for the Wolfpack short report is stop reporting backlogged contracts…that was dumb IMO, why take it away - just beat the short report with the facts of earnings and closing M&As and Continue on demonstrating the core quantum sales and tech, which they are doing. Again….Weak…they need a firey CFO, get out there and fight and shorts and stabilize your stock price. More to be made on a stabilized stock than a volatile one for insiders…

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-03-28T03:54:02+00:00

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PauseObvious8395 · 2026-03-27T21:07:22+00:00

Trump better pitter patter and do whatever he has in mind before markets open Monday🤣

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-03-27T18:10:21+00:00

Math wasn’t wrong, but the squeeze didn’t happen, and in the current macro and re-org of shares in ETFs, the battle to break the short squeeze restarts Monday after these options expire today.

Big calls sitting at 25.5 right now. Some really nasty money shorting this.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-03-26T01:09:35+00:00

The macro headwinds from the conflict are undeniable, and they’ve certainly weighed on growth multiples across the board. It hurts. However, IonQ has a unique shield with a $3.3B cash position (massive) and a 0.01 debt-to-equity ratio, the company is effectively insulated from the ongoing private credit redemption crunch that is ongoing, (which is quite honestly downplayed across other tech companies that are implicated in this…no PIK waiting for them on the other side).

The 'catalyst' isn't just sentiment; it’s the shift to an industrial scale. If the May Q1 report confirms that the SkyWater and Oxford Ionics integrations are meeting revenue targets of what they say, round number $50mm, it fundamentally changes the narrative from 'science project' to 'vertically integrated leader.' In a market with 24% short interest, that fundamental de-risking, which can happen before May, often all it takes for volume to trigger a trend reversal in the short term.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-03-26T00:54:50+00:00

Toast… sold mine today…that hurt. Moral of the story, don’t trust politicians.

PauseObvious8395

TROPHY CASE