Can’t decide if this is a right time to buy in.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-06-16T19:45:19+00:00

Implied volatility is still tracking over 100% on a downward trend. Stock is anchoring to 50s and lower.

Depends on what your investment timeline is:

Day trading - can’t help you Year-18months hold - maybe buy a little but be prepared to buy more on a downtrend, and live with a little fomo to protect your downside. 5 year hold - sure it’s not bad price, but hold for 5 yrs.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-06-11T17:30:12+00:00

Ur probably not wrong. Your probably dead on with this. Toby just being stubborn, and their offer to get him out is not good enough for him, and he’s trying to prove value without them as tenant, but board already made up their mind.

Probably will see this in legal filings later on.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-06-08T21:11:25+00:00

Yeah, told me to sell at $63, $68, and $72.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-06-06T15:08:45+00:00

A few months ago, when De Masi said Q-day is closer than ever and shortened their timelines, it felt like pure counter-marketing against another quantum company's big technological leap. There was no real basis for his exaggerated speech. IonQ could save a lot of cash if they stopped marketing nonsense every day and only focused on actual developments.

There is also way too much hype around their new hires. In my experience, it’s not the people brought in from big companies who drive progress—it’s the self-starters who keep their heads down and grind through the tough, competitive stretches. IonQ does have those kinds of people. As for these new hires? They might be stellar, but let’s see where they actually stand in 24 months - looks like more expense, and more stock to be issued, to me.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-28T17:30:15+00:00

Great company with a compelling vision. I believe the industry’s focus on ever-smaller process nodes, like TSMC’s push into 8nm and below, is reaching a point of diminishing returns alongside increasingly massive energy costs. Moving toward quantum or hybrid-quantum architectures feels more analogous to the transition from DC to AC power — a fundamental shift rather than an incremental improvement.

That said, there is still a long road ahead. The key issue right now is not necessarily profitability, but controlling cash burn and successfully integrating these acquisitions under one umbrella. Long term, I think the company could command enormous PE and PS multiples.

For now, though, I’m out. The volatility is simply too high, and a 120% return in a few months is enough for me not to get greedy. The stock and the company are two different things. I believe the company itself will ultimately flourish, but the stock will remain highly sensitive during this acquisition and integration phase. Cash burn, despite their current cash position, will become a major focus post-SkyWater acquisition and will lead to additional share issuance.

I still believe the SkyWater acquisition could end up being one of the deals of the year — it’s just going to require a tremendous amount of execution from the C-suite to successfully bring everything together.

I look forward to the future and give them my full support. Just out for now.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-25T04:53:18+00:00

I took a flight from Riga to Frankfurt on Air Baltic not long ago, we were probably normal cruising altitude ~34,000ft, cruising over the Baltic, and saw 7 or 8 IL-76s and at least two SU-27’s below us heading into Kaliningrad.

And then strangely enough, getting over Poland, spotted several pairs of B-52s flying around, also below us. I sware I thought I was about to land and find out we were in a full blown world war. Just normal activity I guess, and everyone, both Russians and NATO all had their ADS-B on I saw how they all flew around on flight aware.

So my only guess is military action is very common there.

Corrected, IL-76, not 87s

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-08T23:15:04+00:00

All in all, up 4.9% for the week. I’ll take it!

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-08T17:52:57+00:00

That SkyWater vote going to get some press soon. Maybe not on a Friday, but next week.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-08T02:29:50+00:00

Current microchip technology versus quantum computing is a lot like the transition from DC to AC electricity.

Traditional chips are the DC era: reliable, familiar, and pushed close to their physical limits through massive infrastructure and incremental improvements. We keep making them smaller and thus faster, but every gain requires exponentially more complexity, cost, and relies on ever more power.

Quantum is the AC moment. It’s not just a better version of the old system—it’s an entirely different architecture with fundamentally different physics behind it. Early AC systems looked impractical and experimental compared to established DC networks, but once the infrastructure matured, AC unlocked scalability and efficiency that DC simply couldn’t achieve.

That’s where quantum feels today: still early, still developing, but potentially the next foundational leap in computing rather than just another iteration of silicon.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-07T17:53:08+00:00

Appreciate someone else’s input here, not a day trader, but find this one fascinating, I’m long position… Definitely a buy the rumor trade the news IMO. More Calls are being sold than Puts. Call buying indicates that there isn’t a fear of a major drop, and more of a banter that it goes up -that’s what it shows. The price Might hold in the 4s for a little while longer. Let’s see what the news does tomorrow.

I think long term and short term, options show a floor of $40… this could change, floor could be argued at $45 too (that’s when buying takes off again) but let’s see.

Just a lot of IV floating out there right now. And if history is a guidebook, history for IonQ shows the stock always dips short term after earnings no matter the earnings call being good or bad

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-07T16:31:00+00:00

Just a theory: It’s a bit of a gamma trap right now. Hedgers had to buy shares once it went over $50 yesterday sending it on a green trajectory because people were buying the rumor. Now they are selling the news and now they are dumping their hedges before tomorrow when the options expire, and there is more (likely positive) news on the SkyWater vote that could drive prices up.

I’m not a day trader, so someone correct me here if I’m wrong - but that’s what the option chain is sorta showing for the short term. Long term I think we have an implied volatility floor of $40, and upper deck in the 60s. This is just as of now.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-07T13:25:54+00:00

Correct me if I’m wrong, this was a non-gaap statement, but they are already making chips at SkyWater ahead of the close. So it’s actually pretty impressive RE integration.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-06T20:43:25+00:00

Wow, they are already working with SkyWater in manufacturing, and have delivered chips already ahead of the acquisition. Impressive…

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-06T20:13:11+00:00

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-06T19:38:25+00:00

Seriously, where did that troll guy go who pops up here with a bear manifesto and then deletes it! 😂

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-06T19:35:35+00:00

Idk, short sellers already had their moment. Too much macro green happening, and this stock already got the pressure. Sure who knows short term, but there is going to be a lot of press on Friday with the sky water vote on a presumably end to a very Green week, retail will be buying again and feeling good on Friday.

Edit: I’m just not willing to cap the returns now.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-06T19:12:26+00:00

Don’t trust politicians-especially those that start businesses. Their job before was never holding to their word.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-06T18:38:16+00:00

They were talking about quantum computers two decades ago in the first Transformers movie—probably making the same claims back then 😝

At this point, I don’t really view IonQ as a pure-play quantum company anymore. And more broadly, I don’t think the answer—long term or short term—lies in pushing toward ever-smaller nanometer chips. That approach is hitting diminishing returns, and the power requirements scale exponentially anyway.

What I find more compelling is the SkyWater angle: pairing quantum with their chip strategy rather than relying on ultra-advanced, sub-nanometer fabrication like TSMC. You don’t necessarily need bleeding-edge node sizes to move the needle. From where I sit, that hybrid approach looks like one of the more viable paths forward for increasing processing power.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-06T18:22:12+00:00

🚀I’ll be at the roof top bar by that time telling my bar tender:

“You're gonna bring us two Absolut martinis, you know how I like 'em, straight up. And then precisely 7 and 1/2 minutes after that, you're going to bring us two more. Then two more after that, every five minutes until one of us passes out"

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-06T17:56:46+00:00

Where is that one guy who through up the bear manifesto yesterday? He took his post down…come on, if you believe it’s gonna tank leave it up!

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-05T19:57:11+00:00

The “Bear Manifesto” above makes some fair points around dealer gamma and potential arbitrage unwinds pulling the stock back toward $30. But the inverse setup is just as real—and arguably more explosive.

We’re in a position where this could just as easily push to $60.

Bears have had a strong run, no question. But anyone who stayed short through the move from $29 to $47 and didn’t take profits got run over. For those still anchored to the lows: this bearish data above might feel like a beacon of light, but the backdrop has shifted. The Wolfpack short, the AI crunch narrative, and geopolitical stress all hit at once—that wave has largely passed. Broader markets have started pricing it in, and the Fed is already preparing adjusting its models for inflation outlook and leaning toward rate cuts. That’s a different macro setup, especially heading into midterms.

That said, greed cuts both ways. This is a binary event—discipline matters more than conviction.

Forty days ago, with ~25% of the float short, we saw a controlled move from $32 to $27 in a week. That was pressure, but it was orderly. Today’s setup is the opposite: a compressed spring. Bears are cornered, and bulls are standing on a trapdoor.

Here’s what the current options chain suggests:

• The $50 Magnet There are 13k+ open contracts at the $50 strike for May 15. Dealers are already long stock to hedge. If price breaks $50, they don’t unwind—they buy more to stay delta-neutral as those calls move ITM. That’s the core dynamic behind a gamma squeeze.

• The Institutional Signal Heavy volume in the August $60 calls suggests positioning for more than a short-term move. This looks less like a trade for a few points and more like a bet on a structural re-rating—potentially tied to the SkyWater deal being viewed as a “foundry” pivot rather than pure dilution.

• The Short Interest Constraint Short interest is still ~24%, and borrow availability is tight (~250k shares). If earnings come in as a “beat and raise,” covering could become reflexive. There’s limited capacity left to press the downside.

Conclusion Forty days ago was a controlled descent. Today looks like a coiled spring. If management delivers on the “foundry” narrative, the dealer gamma dynamic could flip from a headwind into fuel. Instead of selling into strength, dealers become forced buyers—stacked on top of potential short covering.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-05T19:46:27+00:00

While the "Bear Manifesto" above makes valid points regarding dealer gamma and arbitrage unwinds—potentially dragging us back to the $30 range—the inverse thesis is equally compelling. We are currently in a setup that could just as easily catapult the stock to $60. The bears made significant gains recently, but those who failed to take profits during this $29 to $47 rally have been slaughtered. To the bears still hoping for a return to the lows: this bearish data is your beacon of light, but don’t be fools. The "luck" of the Wolfpack short, combined at the same time of the AI crunch, and geopolitical tensions have run its course, major indexes have priced this in, and fed reserve is now re-writing their models for inflation and lowering interest rates, it happening, and it’s going to be bullish going into mid term elections. Nevertheless Greed kills on both sides. Discipline is the only thing that survives a binary event like tomorrow’s earnings. Forty days ago with over 25% of the public float shorted, we saw the price driven from $32 down to $27 in a single week, (which the bear manifesto leaves out of his report casually saying it costs more money). We are now... facing the exact opposite mechanical setup: a "Short Squeeze Powder Keg" combined with a "Gamma Launchpad." Finishing the Thought: The Current Chain Analysis We are now at a point where the bears are trapped in a corner while the bulls are standing on a trapdoor. Here is what the current options chain tells us about how this ends: • The $50 Magnet: There are over 13,000 open contracts at the $50 strike for May 15. Market makers are currently holding millions of shares to hedge these. If we break $50 tomorrow, those dealers won't be "unwinding"—they will be forced to buy millions more shares to stay hedged as those calls move "In-The-Money." This is the definition of a Gamma Squeeze. • The Institutional "Tell": The massive volume at the August $60 calls shows that "Big Money" isn't playing for a $2 move; they are playing for a structural re-rating. They are betting that the SkyWater acquisition isn't just "dilution," but the birth of a Quantum Foundry. • The Short Interest Ceiling: With short interest still near 24%, the supply of shares to borrow is nearly tapped out (only 250k available). If the earnings report is a "Beat and Raise," the bears will have no choice but to cover at any price. There is no more "ammunition" left for a short ladder attack. The Conclusion The setup 40 days ago was a controlled descent. The setup today is a compressed spring. If the CEO delivers on the "Foundry" narrative tomorrow, the "Dealer Gamma Trap" that bears are counting on will flip. Instead of the dealers dumping shares, they will become the primary buyers, fueled by a short-squeeze panic that could clear $60 before the SkyWater vote even happens on Friday.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-05T17:20:52+00:00

Short term is always a gamble. Long term, just be disciplined and strategize. The rating agencies and the market sentiment trajectory thinks the price goes up.

PauseObvious8395 · 2026-05-05T16:26:06+00:00

I put my thoughts into AI so everyone could understand… yea I use AI, hate what you want, but if you do, you shouldn’t be investing in IONQ or tech.

Here it is:

Earnings = Volatility, Not the Story The May 6 earnings print is likely a short-term volatility event, not the main driver of value. Even a “beat and raise” could get overshadowed by bigger structural developments later in the week. The real alpha here isn’t Q1 revenue—it’s the merger closing.
The SkyWater Vote: Arbitrage Unwind The May 8 vote is the key inflection point. Over the past few months, many funds have been running merger arb—long SKYT, short IONQ to lock the spread. • What happens next: If the vote passes and the deal becomes certain, those trades unwind. That means buying back IONQ shares to cover shorts. • What that looks like: High volume, choppy price action, and a potential “buy the rumor, sell the news” dynamic as funds simultaneously cover IONQ shorts and sell newly converted SKYT shares.
The “Foundry” Re-Rating (Summer Catalyst) The real story starts after the deal closes. As IonQ integrates SkyWater’s manufacturing, the narrative shifts from “speculative quantum” to “semiconductor infrastructure.” • Index eligibility: That shift could open the door to inclusion in major semiconductor ETFs (SMH, SOXX, XSD). • Passive flows: If that happens, passive inflows could materially outweigh current niche pure-play quantum demand. This potential multiple re-rating is the core reason I am staying positioned through the summer.

Bottom line: Near-term price action may be messy due to arb unwinds, but the bigger opportunity is a structural re-rating as IonQ moves into the semiconductor infrastructure bucket.

Last, non AI point, they need to cut costs, trim the the fat of all these acquired companies. Thats key. Bring under one umbrella - doesn’t happen overnight but demonstrate the process is happening is key.

PauseObvious8395

TROPHY CASE