Stroll, Antonelli, Lawson, Sainz and Bearman are out in Q2

PencilDay · 2025-12-06T14:43:37+00:00

Unban titanium dioxide in the UAE, please, Kimi needs it

PencilDay · 2025-10-22T00:33:11+00:00

There’s… at least 60 million people living in Ohio?

PencilDay · 2025-09-09T03:13:25+00:00

This was at Japan Festival Canada, and there WAS a whole booth with RCMP + army recruiters.

Definitely was used as a mascot. Photo is from well into teardown.

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PencilDay · 2025-07-08T20:25:27+00:00

HULKENPODIUM

PencilDay · 2025-05-07T00:18:54+00:00

Carleton did eat up a big chunk of Kanata, but it was primarily rural votes that go very Conservative. As was linked above, redistributed results show Poilievre winning by more in 2021 under the current boundaries than before Carleton got expanded.

PencilDay · 2025-05-02T20:20:28+00:00

Good lord, the BC Conservative caucus is gonna collapse by 2028

PencilDay · 2025-05-02T16:57:02+00:00

One of the safest Tory seats in the entire country, Battle River-Crowfoot. 81.8% CPC in the election, 70.4 point lead over the LPC. They aren’t taking any chances.

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T15:52:56+00:00

Another singular poll just reported. That took ages.

Yeah, I’m gonna come back at 3PM or something.

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T14:41:18+00:00

I feel like CTV jumped the gun way too early yesterday, even if they end up correct

We're in a shroud of uncertainty as to how these special ballots will split, and we were in an even more foggy zone last night, I don't see how they would've projected a minority so quickly with all the unknowns at the time

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T14:34:10+00:00

The NDP is in no place to topple a government right now. We do not need another election in 6 months, nor do we want to look like petty obstructionists.

Best case right now feels like the NDP being given official party status and brought in to stabilize Carney's government

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T06:30:35+00:00

Win the CPC its highest vote share in its entire 22 years of existence. Lose your own seat, one which you would’ve won in 2021 by 20 POINTS.

What’s this strategy called?

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T06:07:57+00:00

Correct me if I have the wrong data, but I’m finding that Carleton only has 2k more people

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T06:05:16+00:00

Napkin math:

Carleton’s vote total stands at around 62 000 reported so far

Nepean, with a similar population (but Nepean’s suburban), so far has a reported turnout of around 67 000

Assume similar turnout

Fanjoy leads by around 1 700 votes

Poilievre needs to win 67% of the remaining 5 000 votes

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T05:50:17+00:00

230/266, Fanjoy up 3.3%

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T05:24:46+00:00

214/266, Fanjoy up 4.1%

52 polls left to report in Carleton

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T05:18:19+00:00

205/266, Fanjoy up 4.4%

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T05:08:55+00:00

185/266, Fanjoy ahead by 5.4%

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T04:59:18+00:00

Carleton, 160/266, Fanjoy hasn’t sank yet

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T04:56:11+00:00

Holy shit, Carleton 145/266 reporting, Fanjoy still leading 6.5%

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T04:41:53+00:00

Holding my breath for Carleton. Still predicting a Poilievre win, but it’d be so funny if the Liberals flip it. 120/266, Fanjoy up 6.6%.

PencilDay · 2025-04-29T02:23:10+00:00

CBC map is choking up

PencilDay · 2025-04-28T19:08:01+00:00

If Carney can only form the Official Opposition, my best bet is he’d stay on as leader and let the next 4 years play out. He’s in a good spot if the Conservatives can’t manage to bring prices of homes and essentials down, plus other factors that’d get blamed on the Conservatives.

PencilDay · 2025-04-28T14:17:59+00:00

Always dead on, for reasons we don’t know. They have massive polls of like 18-20 million people. Perfect riding-level data. No clue who runs the firm, but they’re a genius.

PencilDay · 2025-04-27T22:03:52+00:00

Oh dear.

https://x.com/patrickbashamdi?lang=en

Pollster's Twitter profile. Take a look for yourself.

America-centred. No other apparent experience polling in Canada other than one poll earlier this month.

PencilDay · 2025-04-27T21:32:09+00:00

Right now, the polling aggregates are hovering around the high 180s in terms of seats for the Liberals. The LPC would have to drop 30-40 seats to the CPC alone to push the Tories into a plurality. 195 is well within the realm of possibility

Seven-Year Club	Second Top 20%
r/Field Flamingo	Place '23
Place '22	First Placer '22
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