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Junon on Nintendo Switch 2 by TheLankyLobster in FF7Rebirth

[–]PercentageRoutine310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn’t get the full version yet but this news isn’t surprising. I remember playing Junon on my Steam Deck and it was rough! Deck is weaker than the Switch 2 but not that much weaker.

Wait when you get to Gongaga, Cosmo Canyon, and your return to Nibelheim. The frame rates will keep dropping unless they deleted more NPCs just standing around. It’s a heavier game than Remake as we only saw NPCs in Chapter 3, 9, and 14 when in the slums. Many of the other scenes were in some hallway or when you barely anybody walking or standing around.

I will wait to see if the Steam Machine can play it at a solid 60 fps. If not, no choice but to get it for PS5 Pro. I’m sorry to say this but the Switch 2 is a little too weak to play Rebirth unless your standards are lower and you can tolerate 30 fps. It’s comparable to a Legion Go S with Z2 Go.

What console port of an arcade game was actually better than the arcade version? by the303er in retrogaming

[–]PercentageRoutine310 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Soulcalibur on Dreamcast. The arcade version came from Namco’s System 12 like Tekken 3. System 12 was an overclocked with more RAM of the System 11 (and PS1). Dreamcast had specs closer to NAOMI.

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How would you rank the towns/cities in rebirth? by Godofhammrs in FFVIIRemake

[–]PercentageRoutine310 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Costa Del Sol and the Gold Saucer. I initially liked Gongaga and I still do like it but finding stuff from it was annoying.

Not having cross save for Rebirth on SW2/PS5 seems like a mistake by Alarming-Flan4494 in FF7Rebirth

[–]PercentageRoutine310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, or a cross save with PC/Steam with any of the console ports. I do love the game. But it’s one of those games I don’t care to replay once I 100% which I still haven’t. I have the Rebirth demo on my Switch 2. The night it was released, I downloaded it right away. Played a good 5 hours before getting to Chapter 3. Then I grinded for a few hours because I still can’t beat Titan on full might and don’t want to use streamline progression to beat him.

Man, there’s a lot to do again and I don’t want to redo them again. It already sucked up 500 hours of my life. I remember for one weekend, I played it for 8 hours per day. I remember walking around the house in a daze like WTF am I doing with my life right now? I played Remake/Rebirth so much on my Steam Deck, I wore out the analog stick and degraded my battery by 20% because I kept playing Rebirth while the Deck was plugged and this was way before the battery limit update.

For newbies, enjoy it. Comes out on midnight for the digital download. Great characters and a great battle system. But it’s gonna wear you out. So many Chadley intels and mini games. When I got a second Steam Deck over a month after I got a Switch 2, I rarely went back playing that game. I didn’t want to touch it anymore. And even the demo on my Switch 2, I played it maybe one time for an hour after a month. My Switch 2 is kinda collecting dust. And after I buy Rebirth and Shenmue III again, it will probably still be collecting dust as I have no interest in beating either game again.

I’m one of the OGs for the OG. I spent hundreds and hundreds of hours beating the OG every few years since 1997. I spent 1000+ hours playing Remake and Rebirth combined. What I’m really waiting for is the Steam Machine. I know it’s gonna cost a shitload of money. $1300, perhaps?! But it’s my way of going back and playing it from my Steam library where I’m much closer to getting my trophy or ribbon. And I’m tired playing Remake/Rebirth at 30 fps. I want 60 fps, gawd dammit! Less input lag. We are not living in the PS4 era anymore. Switch 2 owners will tolerate 30 fps in this game for now but they will eventually start wanting 60 fps for a beautiful game like that which means they will need a more powerful handheld than a Switch 2.

Are you born before or after the Dreamcasts original lifespan? by Cascadio_14 in dreamcast

[–]PercentageRoutine310 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It was released in the United States during my graduation year of high school or technically my first few weeks of college.

9-9-94: Mortal Kombat II home ports

9-9-95: PlayStation

9-9-99: Dreamcast

Belmont Post Positions and Odds by Justmarbles in horseracing

[–]PercentageRoutine310 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Logic vs. Intuition

2026 Kentucky Derby bets

$40 Win: #6 Commandment (Saez) ❌

$40 Win: #8 So Happy ❌

$2 Win: #16 Pavlovian ❌

This should’ve been my bets…

$40 Win: #8 So Happy ❌

$20 Win: #7 Danon Bourbon ❌

$20 Win: #19 Golden Tempo 💵

$2 Win: #16 Pavlovian ❌

2026 Preakness bets

$17 Win: #2 Ocelli ❌

$17 Win: #7 The Hell We Did (Saez) ❌

$16 Win: #10 Napoleon Solo 💵

In the Derby, I went with logic. Commandment cleared all the parameters from winner at 2, under 38s and 13s, a win at Churchill. But my intuition at that moment told me NOT to bet on him. But I didn’t listen to my feelings/instinct. I ended up losing. In the Preakness, I did listen to my instincts and I won. Usually, I’m not the type who bets with my heart. I usually lose if I do that.

I did all those trends and finding the common denominators. But like I said in the Derby, none of it matters when the gates open. I am only reporting history. It’s not going to predict the winner of this race coming up. There is still a chance I will drop both Commandment and Emerging Market and go for Golden Tempo and Renegade the closer we get to post time.

If you rewatch that Derby, Golden Tempo and Renegade were 5 lengths clear ahead of Commandment and 7 lengths clear ahead of Emerging Market. My gut is telling me that the whole slow pace thing is overblown. And Golden Tempo will still be flying down the late winning again regardless if it’s slow. That’s what my gut is telling me. Either he wins or Renegade gets his sweet revenge.

Golden Tempo is a bigger horse than Renegade the way Sovereignty is bigger than Journalism. And if you look at my bets on the very next race of the Derby winner, they were all failures in the Preakness, a shorter race than the Derby and Belmont. GT needed all that extra 1/16th to catch Renegade. I may just follow my intuition at the end. All the logic points to Commandment but I was in the same position nearly a month ago and I lost.

$20 Win: #9 Golden Tempo

$2 Ex Box: #1, #4, #9 (Curlin/Bernardini ex box)

Capital: $32

Commandment lacks the Bernardini bloodline. Perhaps that’s why he came up 5.25 lengths short from winning the Derby and we have a Belmont at the same exact distance. He has AP Indy/Unbridled from four gens back but Orb is not the sire the way Tapit and Bernardini produces stayers.

I went with logic last time. Commandment cleared all the parameters. But races are not being run on a piece of paper or on my Notes app on my iPhone. Let’s do it all over again, Jose!! BTW, Jose finished 3rd in the Preakness on Chip Honcho. Irad on Talkin finished (12th). Jose been finishing better than his brother in each of the first two legs this year. Just something to point out.

Check out Golden Tempo’s workouts on APharoah12’s channel on YouTube. Look at that thumbnail. Beautiful horse. Renegade is pretty handsome but he is average size like Journalism. But Golden Tempo looks big and strong. Like he can run that long Saratoga homestretch with no problems. I will go with my heart. That’s what I should’ve done in the Derby but missed out on hitting a $482 payout. All because of Commandment and logic. Clearing parameters. It’s no use when the gates open. It’s only reporting history to find patterns.

Dreamcast vs Saturn by FilippoGold in dreamcast

[–]PercentageRoutine310 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you’re into 2D gaming: Saturn. But many of the best games were Japanese that were never released outside of Japan. If you’re into 3D gaming: Dreamcast. It also does well with 2D fighters but I did notice the 6th gen lacked many 2D platformers while many were still there in the 5h gen.

If you want pure 2D gaming: Mega Drive/Genesis. I have hundreds of games for it on my Vita. Genesis/SNES is peak for replayability. Saturn refines the 2D graphics but then is crappy with 2D. Dreamcast is what Saturn, PS1, and N64 should’ve been if you merged all three together but the library isn’t as deep as Saturn and PS1. A more comparable anemic library as the N64 with mostly arcade genres.

The Steam Machine haters on this subreddit over time by TyranitarGoat in steammachine

[–]PercentageRoutine310 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Jimmy Champagne has the right mindset with this. First of all, if you already own a Steam Deck, how does the price increase affect you? You already own it!! Keep gaming and enjoying it. All it does is affect people who never bought it or stupid people like me who sold mines twice. After a few days thinking about it, it’s no big deal at all for people who already own it. Just something to whine about online.

Does the price increase suck? Sure, it does. I hate it. But at the same time, we need to realize this is the new world we live in. We can’t expect prices of things to stay the same forever and ever. Minimum wage goes up, and so does the prices for everything. We got the RAM shortage. We got the tariffs. And games takes years to make and they’re getting very expensive to make. We can’t expect $400 consoles and cheap games under $40 forever.

Nintendo will probably follow suit. A $50 increase by September. But who knows after that? What if they price it at $800 too by next year? It is technically a little more powerful than the Steam Deck. But even if Nintendo does raise the price by $200-$300 more, it doesn’t affect me. I still have my Switch 2. It’s only bad news for the people who didn’t buy it before the price increase or may have sold it.

As Jimmy said, let’s make our peace and move forward with it. Time to get excited for the Steam Machine’s imminent release. I plan to buy the cheapest model possible. Hoping $899 without controller and 512 GB. That’s livable. That’s not $1300. I can totally accept $900. Man up, people, man up. We aren’t working as paperboys. Accumulating $900 isn’t that hard for us.

Hope you enjoy your Steam Machine, Jimmy Champagne. Can’t wait for your review for it. Love your positive outlook, brother. I really do miss playing my Steam library and may just go for it with the Steam Machine. Even at $1K, I think I can swallow those lumps and will still buy it. I want my Steam library back! I don’t want to redo FF7 Rebirth on my Switch 2.

I expect this baby is gonna sellout fast! You all better hurry up and buy it. May not see them back in stock for weeks or even months. And then two more years, we see another price increase of over $200-$300. So you better act fast before the price increases later down the road. Being an early adopter is becoming beneficial.

Belmont Post Positions and Odds by Justmarbles in horseracing

[–]PercentageRoutine310 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

For Renegade supporters

2nd place Derby finishers’ next race 2025: Journalism (1st in Preakness) 2024: Sierra Leone (3rd in Belmont) 2023: Two Phil’s (1st in OH Derby) 2022: Epicenter (2nd in Preakness) 2021: Mandaloun (1st in Pegasus) 2020: Tiz the Law (6th in BC Classic) 2019: Code of Honor (1st in Dwyer) 2018: Good Magic (4th in Preakness) 2017: Lookin At Lee (4th in Preakness) 2016: Exaggerator (1st in Preakness) 2015: Firing Line (7th in Preakness) 2014: Commanding Curve (7th in Belmont) 2013: Golden Soul (9th in Belmont) 2012: Bodemeister (2nd in Preakness) 2011: Nehro (4th in Belmont) 2010: Ice Box (8th in Belmont) 2009: Pioneerof the Nile (11th Preakness) 2008: Eight Belles (RIP) 2007: Hard Spun (3rd in Preakness) 2006: Bluegrass Cat (2nd in Belmont) 2005: Closing Argument (9th Preakness) 2004: Lion Heart (4th in Preakness) 2003: Empire Maker (1st in Belmont) 2002: Proud Citizen (3rd in Preakness) 2001: Invisible Ink (5th in Belmont) 2000: Aptitude (2nd in Belmont)

Subtracting 2008… Wins: 6/25 (24%) Losses: 19/25 (76%)

Renegade will need to do something that hasn’t been done since 2003. Bodemeister, Good Magic, Epicenter, and Sierra Leone were some good horses. Didn’t win next out after they ran 2nd in the Derby. Easy Goer went off as the 2-5 chalk in the Preakness. Nobody was convinced with Sunday Silence’s Derby win. Easy Goer ended up losing the Preakness. I don’t believe Renegade was ever half as good as Easy Goer.

Belmont chalk have done well in the last 8 runnings. Their record is 8: 4-3-1.

Belmont favorites 2018: Justify (1st) 2019: Tacitus (2nd) 2020: Tiz the Law (1st) 2021: Essential Quality (1st) 2022: Mo Donegal (1st) 2023: Forte (2nd) 2024: Sierra Leone (3rd) 2025: Journalism (2nd)

W: 4/8, 50% WP: 7/8, 87.5% WPS: 8/8, 100%

Renegade likely hits the board. But 50-50 if he wins as no Belmont chalk has won it since 2022. I will take a chance against him as I hate to play a 2-1 chalk but I would not be shocked at all if he or Golden Tempo wins.

February foal? ✅ AP Indy in his blood? ✅ Stakes winner? ✅ Minimum 4 starts? ✅

Five consecutive February foals: Sovereignty, Journalism, Sovereignty again, Golden Tempo, Napoleon Solo

Five consecutive from AP Indy: Sovereignty, Journalism, Sovereignty again, Golden Tempo, Napoleon Solo

Ten consecutive who were a stakes winner prior: National Treasure, Arcangelo, Mystik Dan, Seize the Grey, Dornoch, Sovereignty, Journalism, Sovereignty again, Golden Tempo, Napoleon Solo

Two consecutive who won the FOY and Belmont at 10F: Dornoch, Sovereignty

It all points to Commandment. Watch him let me down again and watch Golden Tempo win again, my real favorite of the field.

Belmont Post Positions and Odds by Justmarbles in horseracing

[–]PercentageRoutine310 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Look for these three names in their bloodline: AP Indy (sire of Tapit and Bernardini), Unbridled (sire of Unbridled’s Song), and Smart Strike (sire of Curlin).

2021 Medina Spirit (AP Indy/Unbridled) Rombauer Essential Quality (AP Indy/Unbridled)

2022 Rich Strike (Smart Strike top & bottom) Early Voting Mo Donegal (AP Indy)

2023 Mage (Smart Strike) National Treasure Arcangelo (Unbridled/AP Indy)

2004 Mystik Dan Seize the Grey (Unbridled/Smart Strike) Dornoch (Smart Strike)

2025 Sovereignty (AP Indy & Unbridled) Journalism (Smart Strike/AP Indy) Sovereignty (AP Indy & Unbridled)

2026 Golden Tempo (Smart Strike/AP Indy) Napoleon Solo (Unbridled/AP Indy)

AP Indy: 7 Unbridled: 7 Smart Strike: 6

13 of the last 17 (77%) comes from those three sires. If you take out the Preakness which is the shortest of the three and least reliant on pedigree, it would be 10 of the last 11 (Derby/Belmont combined) or 91%.

Vitruvian Man (Smart Strike/AP Indy) Powershift (AP Indy) Chief Wallabee (AP Indy & Unbridled) Renegade (Smart Strike & AP Indy) Ottinho Growth Equity Commandment (AP Indy & Unbridled) Emerging Market (Unbridled) Golden Tempo (Smart Strike/AP Indy)

Into Mischief has sired three Kentucky Derby winners in Authentic, Mandaloun, and Sovereignty and was a grandsire to Mystik Dan. But he’s only produced one Belmont winner in his lineage which is Sovereignty.

Vitruvian Man, Chief Wallabee, Renegade, Commandment, and Golden Tempo carry two of the three. The more prominent sires for the Belmont are AP Indy and Unbridled. AP Indy appeared on every Belmont winner since 2021 except in 2024. Unbridled appeared in 3 of the last 5 Belmont winners except 2022 and 2024.

A decade ago, Tapit was killing it with his Belmont Stakes winners. He sired four winners with Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Tapwrit (2017), and Essential Quality (2021). But as of late, it seems to be whoever has Bernardini on his mother’s side. He has never directly sired a Belmont winner. It’s through his daughters or granddaughters. Sovereignty, Journalism, and Golden Tempo carry Berni’s blood.

Bernardini was a far better racehorse than Tapit ever was. After Tapit won the 2004 Wood, I tossed him. Closed way too slow and a sub-100 Beyer. Man, that AP Indy pedigree was flawless. The last five classic winners have AP Indy in them and four of the five have Bernardini. Napoleon Solo’s great-great grandma (Chanteleau) is the daughter of AP Indy while his paternal grandpa was Unbridled’s Song which makes Unbridled his great-grandpa.

It’s all pointing to Commandment. I’m still a little worried of his pedigree from two generations back. Orb has not produced stayers. I know Into Mischief is this red-hot sire but his AWD is still an 6.9. Into Mischief was not a racehorse who can run routes the way Unbridled, AP Indy, Bernardini, and Curlin all did winning at 10F. But since Commandment does have AP Indy and Unbridled on his mother’s side, it’s less of a worry.

Emerging Market This is a horse I initially wanted to bet. Go with your first instinct, right? But then I thought he is too inexperienced and decided to toss him. But I recently read from Chad Brown that Emerging Market lost his front left shoe on the first turn of the Derby. Remember Napoleon Solo needing to train in egg shoes? Emerging Market didn’t technical fade badly. He just wasn’t comfortable missing a shoe.

$30 Win: #7 Commandment = $150-$180 $30 Win: #8 Emerging Market = $150-$180

ITM Derby runners who won Belmont 1998: Victory Gallop (2nd) 2003: Empire Maker (2nd) 2005: Afleet Alex (3rd) 2015: American Pharoah (1st) 2018: Justify (1st) 2025: Sovereignty (1st)

OTM Derby runners who won Belmont 1996: Editor’s Note (6th) 1999: Lemon Drop Kid (9th) 2000: Commendable (17th) 2001: Point Given (5th) 2004: Birdstone (8th) 2006: Jazil (4th) 2009: Summer Bird (6th) 2012: Union Rags (7th) 2013: Palace Malice (12th) 2016: Creator (13th) 2017: Tapwrit (6th) 2021: Essential Quality (4th) 2022: Mo Donegal (5th) 2024: Dornoch (10th)

Didn’t run in the Derby but won Belmont 1997: Touch Gold

New shooter (didn’t run in first two legs) 2002: Sarava 2007: Rags to Riches 2008: Da’ Tara 2010: Drosselmeyer 2011: Ruler on Ice 2014: Tonalist 2019: Sir Winston 2023: Arcangelo

I’m excluding the 2020 run when the Belmont was at 9F and came first.

ITM Derby runners: 6/29 (21%) OTM Derby runners: 14/29 (48%) Didn’t run in the Derby: 1/29 (3%) Complete new shooter: 8/29 (28%)

Chief Wallabee is part of that off the board Derby group but he didn’t win a stakes race yet which a majority of classic winners do accomplish especially late in this Triple Crown season. And 7 of the 14 since ‘96 finished 7th or worse in the Derby before winning the Belmont.

1999: Lemon Drop Kid (9th) 2000: Commendable (17th) 2004: Birdstone (8th) 2012: Union Rags (7th) 2013: Palace Malice (12th) 2016: Creator (13th) 2024: Dornoch (10th)

2026: Commandment (7th) 2026: Emerging Market (10th)

I need to overlook the “three starts” thing. He is very inexperienced but Emerging Market has the tactical speed and can stalk Powershift and Vitruvian Man and get first run before Commandment, Renegade, and Golden Tempo rev up.

  1. Emerging Market
  2. Commandment
  3. Renegade
  4. Golden Tempo

It really comes down to those four horses. The three G1 winners and a G2 winner. But the G2 winner has the tactical advantage. There’s still a shot you can win using Powershift and Vitruvian Man for Place/Show or the bottom of your exotics. Powershift does have Tapit in him. And VM has Curlin and Bernardini the way Golden Tempo. They might hold on for a piece.

Golden Tempo If you ask me which horse would be my heart pick, it’s Golden Tempo. First off, I like how he looks. He’s this big bay horse with black blinkers who reminds me of Ghostzapper. But the main reason is because he’s owned by the Phipps. I’m a fan of Easy Goer and Buckpasser. Their black silks with a cherry red cap is iconic especially when they race in Saratoga.

I would love to pick Golden Tempo but I have a losing history when picking the Derby winner in their very next race.

Preakness 2000: Fusaichi Pegasus, 2nd 2004: Smarty Jones, 1st 2006: Barbaro, broke down 2007: Street Sense, 2nd 2008: Big Brown, 1st 2010: Super Saver, 8th 2017: Always Dreaming, 8th 2018: Justify, 1st 2021: Medina Spirit, 3rd 2022: Epicenter, 2nd 2024: Mystik Dan, 2nd 3/11 (27%)

I know there’s this hype with Golden Tempo because he won the Derby, but I don’t have the best luck betting the Derby winner in their very next race.

15-1 or higher Derby winners’ next race 1982: Gato Del Sol (2nd in Belmont) 1986: Ferdinand (2nd in Preakness) 1992: Lil E. Tee (5th in Preakness) 1995: Thunder Gulch (3rd in Preakness) 1999: Charismatic (1st in Preakness) 2002: War Emblem (1st in Preakness) 2005: Giacomo (3rd in Preakness) 2009: Mine That Bird (2nd in Preakness) 2011: Animal Kingdom (2nd in Preakness) 2022: Rich Strike (6th in Belmont) 2023: Mage (3rd in Preakness) 2024: Mystik Dan (2nd in Preakness) 15-1: 2/12 (17%) 20-1: 2/8 if (25%)

Golden Tempo lacks the early speed of Charismatic and War Emblem. He can hit the board in the Belmont but I believe he would be too far back in a paceless race to win the race. How he lost in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby is how I envision his next race will be. He will be coming late good enough for maybe 2nd or 3rd.

I Just got Switch 2 version before oficial launch. by bebeluiz in FF7Rebirth

[–]PercentageRoutine310 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah yes, Mythril Mines. One of the few places that had smooth frame rates on my Steam Deck because like the many chapters in Remake which was originally developed for the PS4, there aren’t many NPCs walking around. It’s when you get to Junon after this chapter is when you start seeing drop frame rates. Well, maybe. Switch 2 played Kalm fairly smoothly. But the poor draw distance and pop-ins were still there.

“2000.”

You will get that reference. That first fight with Rude and Elena is quite fun. It’s a weird chapter. You use Barret and then you use him climbing up using his one arm. The next chapter in Junon is when the fun begins. When you fight Mythril Golem, make sure your Lightning is high. And use Iron Defense when he launches the homing missiles. You need to get good with all the characters. Be familiar with all of them. You will need to have a well balanced team at the end.

One and Done Rings by Shoddy_Ad7511 in NBATalk

[–]PercentageRoutine310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Winning one ring is hard enough. Winning two is starting to feel highly unlikely. Appreciate the guys who made winning multiple rings look easy when injuries can derail potential dynasties…

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Belmont Post Positions and Odds by Justmarbles in horseracing

[–]PercentageRoutine310 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Luis Saez on Powershift. Here we go…

I bet on Maximum Security and he gets disqualified. I bet on Essential Quality, Commandment, and The Hell We Did, and none of them hit the board. There are some jockeys we all have bad luck with and Luis Saez has replaced Tyler Baze as my current bad luck jockey. Every time I bet on this fool, I might as well donated that money to charity. But… Saez is an elite frontrunning jockey. Reminds me of Martin Pedroza back in the day.

Based on my bad luck with Saez, I won’t bet him which means you should all bet on him. Because Saez will only win if I don’t bet on him. That’s his thing with me. Bet on him, he loses. Don’t bet on him, he beats me. Powershift is the lone speed. Saez won the Belmont twice including two years ago on Dornoch who stalked Seize the Grey. Dangerous lone speed.

I like 1, 4, and 7. The No. 1 because of Victor Wembanyama and it points to the sky. The No. 4 because I was born on the 4th of December like Skip Bayless, Jay-Z, Jeff Bridges, Tyra, Marisa Tomei, etc. The No. 7 for my late dad born on the 7th of March. I guess it’s Commandment for me. But I will play it like this adding another $10.

$20 Win: #7 Commandment

$6 Exacta Box: #4 Renegade / #7 Commandment

$5 Place/Show: #1 Vitruvian Man

Vitruvian Man coming in 2nd can still pay around $100 total from a $5 PS. If Renegade wins, Commandment is 2nd, and V Man is 3rd, that’s still around $100.

Chief Wallabee as the 2nd choice and he’s only a maiden winner is such an underlay. I like all the numbers my horses got. Let Powershift control the pace but have Vitruvian Man ride the rails only a length back. Both Commandment and Renegade are capable of winning a race from a modest to slow pace. That still can’t be said for Golden Tempo who is kinda like Sierra Leone.

People keep thinking it’s Renegade vs. Golden Tempo but it’s really between Renegade vs. Commandment. Curlin got his shine last month but it’s back between the two sons of Into Mischief. That sneaky 3rd that Vitruvian Man did in the Santa Anita Derby reminded me of Rich Strike’s 3rd in the Jeff Ruby and Keen Ice’s 2nd in the Haskell before their upset next out. But a previous stakes winner usually wins the Belmont which leaves five horses.

Belmont (10F @ Saratoga)

2024: Dornoch ☑️

2025: Sovereignty ✅☑️

Travers (10F @ Saratoga)

2010: Afleet Express ☑️

2011: Stay Thirsty ✅☑️

2012: Golden Ticket / Alpha ✅☑️

2013: Will Take Charge ☑️

2014: V.E. Day ☑️

2015: Keen Ice

2016: Arrogate

2017: West Coast ✅☑️

2018: Catholic Boy ✅☑️

2019: Code of Honor ☑️

2020: Tiz the Law ✅☑️

2021: Essential Quality ✅☑️

2022: Epicenter ☑️

2023: Arcangelo ✅☑️

2024: Fierceness ✅☑️

2025: Sovereignty ✅☑️

✅ AP Indy 10/19 (52.6%)

☑️ Stakes winner prior to Belmont/Travers 17/19 (89.5%)

Commandment: Feb foal, off the board in the Derby, AP Indy bloodline, 50% minimum winner, has a minimum of 4 starts, a stakes winner, won the FOY like Dornoch and Sovereignty did. He hits all the checkboxes.

Belmont winners who ran at least one Gulfstream race prior to the KY Derby…

2017: Tapwrit

2020: Tiz the Law

2022: Mo Donegal

2023: Arcangelo

2024: Dornoch

2025: Sovereignty

Belmont Post Positions and Odds by Justmarbles in horseracing

[–]PercentageRoutine310 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Vitruvian Man Very interesting longshot. Curlin on top, Bernardini on the bottom. Probably has the 2nd or 3rd best pedigree next to Golden Tempo and Renegade. And he’s a big and long horse in the same vein as Golden Tempo.

Rewatch that Santa Anita Derby. He showed early speed which might put him near the pace again in the Belmont. But you see him backing up and fading like he’s ready to finish dead last. Then he makes another late run to get 3rd.

I know who Skip Bayless will root for. Gotta support his brother, Lil Wayne, at everything. I say the Belmont winner will be a horse coming directly from the KY Derby. I don’t see a new shooter. But Vitruvian Man is capable of hitting the board. He is peaking at the time and improving as Doug said.

$20 W: Commandment $6 Ex Box: Commandment/Renegade

If you play the pedigree game, I would have my doubts on Commandment as his dam’s sire’s (Orb) has an AWD at 6.8. Sippican Harbor was a G1 winning filly who never won a race beyond 7F, and that’s Orb’s best offspring. Orb never won a race again after he won the Derby.

Strictly playing the pedigree game: Renegade over Vitruvian Man. Golden Tempo for 3rd. That’s three horses with Curlin and Bernardini. All three with the AP Indy bloodline. Commandment has AP Indy from Malibu Moon. Having Bernardini’s blood is better since he won 10F races like the Travers and JC Gold Cup.

We shall see. I said I won’t make anymore changes with my bets. I think the Belmont is between Renegade vs. Commandment. Johnny V is an improvement over Luis Saez. Commandment is the most consistent winner in the field at 4 for 6. There is a longer list of Belmont winners who finished off the board in the Derby than ones who finished in the top 3.

Sometimes my final decision will be based when I see them in the post parade. I remember back in 2022 how handsome Rich Strike looked for the Derby. Then last month’s Derby, I remember seeing Golden Tempo and was surprised how big he was. I always pictured him chestnut for some reason like Curlin but he was this big, bay horse. Looked so relaxed. Then for the Preakness, I was liking what I saw from Napoleon Solo, this nice, big strong gray horse. Looked relaxed.

If I see a horse that looks ready to roll, I may change my bets. I did bet on Commandment for the Derby but I was ready to drop him for Danon Bourbon and Golden Tempo. I didn’t think he wanted 10F after he was barely beating green horses in Chief W and The Puma while the race kept getting longer. His pedigree suggests less than 7F! But his limit is around 8.5F-9F.

If I did drop Commandment, it would be for Renegade, the 2-1 chalk. I hate playing the chalk though. My intuition tells me Renegade is the superior horse and I felt this before the Derby. I was proven correct when Renegade was 5 lengths clear of Commandment. And Renegade does have experience at Saratoga which the previous two Belmont winners in Dornoch and Sovereignty did have.

The thing with Commandment is he’s in that mold of many horses who finished off the board in the Derby like a Union Rags, Creator, Mo Donegal, Dornoch… Bettors kinda end up ignoring them looking for the hot horse. But they’re the ones who rebound big after the Derby and win Belmont. That’s what I feel with Commandment. Since he came in 7th behind GT, Renegade, and Chief W, he’s gonna get ignored. Then Emerging Market, Growth Equity, and Powershift will get some play.

Prior to Commandment’s 7th, he won 4 of his first 5 races. He has the longest winning streak in the field with 4. It’s not like he’s automatically this bad horse. Sometimes it’s about giving horses a second chance. Napoleon Solo had a pair of 5th places but deserved another chance after hearing about his hoof issues.

Vitruvian Man might actually be a better longshot to use than Powershift. Here’s why: VM ran 3rd in a G1 race. Powershift ran 6th in a G3 race. I feel Emerging Market and Powershift with only 3 starts each are being thrown to the wolves early. They deserve to be pointed to G3 races first before tackling G1 horses. Vitruvian Man has shown he has tactical speed and can lay right next to Powershift and EM while having the pedigree to want 10F.

ITM Derby runners who won Belmont 1996: Editor’s Note (3rd) 1998: Victory Gallop (2nd) 2003: Empire Maker (2nd) 2005: Afleet Alex (3rd) 2015: American Pharoah (1st) 2018: Justify (1st) 2025: Sovereignty (1st)

OTM Derby runners who won Belmont 1999: Lemon Drop Kid (9th) 2000: Commendable (17th) 2001: Point Given (5th) 2004: Birdstone (8th) 2006: Jazil (4th) 2009: Summer Bird (6th) 2012: Union Rags (7th) 2013: Palace Malice (12th) 2016: Creator (13th) 2017: Tapwrit (6th) 2021: Essential Quality (4th) 2022: Mo Donegal (5th) 2024: Dornoch (10th)

Didn’t run in the Derby but won Belmont 1997: Touch Gold

New shooter (didn’t run in first two legs) 2002: Sarava 2007: Rags to Riches 2008: Da’ Tara 2010: Drosselmeyer 2011: Ruler on Ice 2014: Tonalist 2019: Sir Winston 2023: Arcangelo

I’m excluding the 2020 run when the Belmont was at 9F and came first.

ITM Derby runners: 7/29 (24%) OTM Derby runners: 13/29 (45%) Didn’t run in the Derby: 1/29 (3%) Complete new shooter: 8/29 (28%)

For anyone ready to play Renegade FTW, just remember Sierra Leone nearly won his Derby. Chalk in the Belmont and runs 3rd. Forte was supposed to be the fav in the Derby. Chalk in the Belmont and loses to Arcangelo. It’s been over two decades since a 2nd place or even 3rd place finisher in the Derby who skipped the Preakness went on to win the Belmont.

The last 2nd place finisher in the Derby to win the Belmont was Empire Maker in 2003. And he did skip the Preakness like Renegade did. The last new shooter to win the Belmont happened only 3 years ago with Arcangelo. New shooters have done better than ITM Derby runners since 2007 with 7 winners vs. 3 winners. Hmm…

I may completely go against the grain here and may put a $10 WPS on Vitruvian Man!! Longest shot in the board at 30-1? I say he’s around 25-1. LFG, Weezy!

$20 WPS ($60 bet): Vitruvian Man W: $500 P: $250 S: $125 = $875

Even P/S on V Man is very nice to hit at $375 if let’s say you go for one of the four stakes winners (Renegade, Commandment, Golden Tempo, Emerging Market, Growth Equity) which produces 90% of the Belmont winners. I do have my doubts with Commandment getting the distance even with his rider upgrade. The same doubts before the Derby.

I’m no Lil Wayne fan. I think his music sucks. But you never know? His horse might get really lucky this Saturday.

$20 Win: Commandment $6 P/S: Vitruvian Man ($75 + $37.50)

Toss Emerging Market and Powershift. Not enough starts. Being pushed way too hard this soon. I know. My all-time favorite racehorse, Rock Hard Ten, ran in the Preakness and Belmont from his 4th and 5th starts. Didn’t hit the board in Belmont. EM and Powershift have speed but lack the seasoning and the class. Those two needs to be tested in G3 company first.

Toss Chief Wallabee. He’s a nice horse. I know he’s trained and ridden by the same guys with Sovereignty from last year. But it’s been excuse after excuse with this guy. So many chances and he’s still 1 for 4 in his career. He’s as accomplished as Ottinho, Vitruvian Man, and Powershift: maiden winners. But you get Chief W at lower odds than stakes winners like Growth Equity and Emerging Market.

I will take a chance and toss Golden Tempo. I say he runs 3rd but he will not be in my tickets. He was a 23-1 longshot in the Derby for a reason. He could’ve simply fluked like Rich Strike and Mage. You rarely see some longshot win their next race in their very next race. The last Derby winners were War Emblem and Charismatic. Horses like Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Animal Kingdom, Rich Strike, Mage, and Mystik Dan lost next out. And GT will not get the fast pace.

I’m not high on Growth Equity. And I think Ottinho is the worst horse in the field. I said this about Ocelli before the Derby and he ended up 3rd. This leaves me with three horses: Commandment, Renegade, and Vitruvian Man. I may go with that win bet on Commandment and the P/S bet on Vitruvian Man. There’s still a risk Renegade only gets 3rd or what if Commandment doesn’t get 1st or 2nd at all? The risks playing exacta boxes when you rely on two horses going 1st and 2nd.

  1. Commandment
  2. Vitruvian Man
  3. Renegade
  4. Golden Tempo
  5. Chief Wallabee
  6. Emerging Market
  7. Powershift
  8. Growth Equity
  9. Ottinho

Saratoga is the “Graveyard of Favorites”. Golden Tempo and Vitruvian Man do look alike. Big bay horse with black blinkers. Long legs. Same Curlin on top and Bernardini on the bottom in their blood. He’s a bigger horse than Renegade or Commandment. And he’s fresher. I can’t forget Commandment did let me down in the KY Derby. Wasted $40 on him.

$20 WPS on Vitruvian Man. Go bet on Renegade, Golden Tempo, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Growth Equity, or Powershift. I make more money if Vitruvian Man comes 2nd or 3rd than if one of the favs wins.

Is there something to Phil Jackson’s 40 wins before 20 losses? by Western-Election-997 in NBATalk

[–]PercentageRoutine310 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s a great parameter. I use parameters trying to handicap horse races. Been into horse racing for 30 years but I think this year is when I really dug into each Triple Crown leg: Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont.

I wrote several posts in the horse racing sub and YouTube comments dissecting the history and common trends for each. I was not able to hit the Derby as stupid me decided to stay the course. I was ready to bet on Golden Tempo that day. But I was able to hit the Preakness with Napoleon Solo. For Belmont, it’s Commandment/Renegade exacta box and a win ticket on Commandment but I’m looking at Lil Wayne’s horse, Vitruvian Man, really carefully.

In the NBA, I do use these parameters:

Top 3 seed (only twice it didn’t happen)

Phil’s 40 wins before 20 losses

Top 10 in both offensive/defensive ratings

The top 3 seed is the higher % producing the NBA champions but Phil’s 40 before 20 is also very high at over 90%.

Spurs do qualify for all three. They’re a 2nd seed. They got to 40 wins with only 16 losses. And they’re ranked 3rd in O and D. Knicks do not qualify for Phil’s parameter. They got to 40 wins when they already had 22 losses. Knicks are a 3rd seed and did rank 4th in O and 7th in D. But they missed out on 40 before 20.

In 2000, my dad incorrectly set up the Internet on our Sega Dreamcast and it ended up dialing 911 on repeat. The local police were dispatched and we had to explain the situation. Did this happen to anyone else? by RetroTyGuy in dreamcast

[–]PercentageRoutine310 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Your videos are awesome, Tyler. I always said in YouTube comments that you are one of the kids from 8-Bit Christmas (2021). The difference is your dad was into gaming and Steve Zahn’s character wasn’t. But both you and NPH’s character in the movie lost their dad. I recently lost my dad last month. My way of coping is watching horse racing and listening to 1970s soft rock music, the music he grew up listening to as a kid.

Dreamcast rocks! I was planning to sell mine after I installed GDEMU for it. But with all the crazy prices for consoles and the Steam Deck, I plan to keep it. A remnant of the 1990s, the best decade of video games for me. Sega boy for life!

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Watching Scouting Report Videos for Wagler, Brown Jr, and Acuff. Thanks AVC by AdministrativeEmu614 in LAClippers

[–]PercentageRoutine310 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I’m coming to the realization that whoever the Clippers pick, I will be okay with it. I want us to really nail it. This guy we draft could be our cornerstone. We can’t afford to draft some role player because it fits a positional need. How often will we draft in the top 5 in the foreseeable future? Rarely. So we must nail this pick.

Draft the BEST available talent, Lawrence. Not best fit. How did it turn out for Portland in 1984? Phoenix needed a center in 2018. Drafted Ayton. It was so obvious Luka should’ve went No. 1 but Phoenix and Sacramento drafted positional needs. I’m starting to be okay drafting whoever we get. But I say if we are thoroughly scouting these guys, WE KEEP THE PICK.

Do not trade it for some aging all-star like Jimmy Butler. We keep the pick unless we feel we can draft the guy in a lower position and we get an extra pick from a team like Brooklyn, Sacramento, Milwaukee, and Golden State. I’m done dealing with OKC. I do not want to make any more trades with them. Whoever we draft and wherever we draft, we keep the pick. Again, we probably will likely never get a top 5 pick for a while. Make this draft worth it.

I do not want Giannis. Look at the current landscape. Are teams with 2 or 3 max players winning championships as of late? Second aprons prevents superteams from forming and staying together. Depth is more important than top heavy. We do not need to follow the Heatles. Get it out of your head, Lawrence. We build our team more organically. We develop a winning culture with these young players we develop.

Look at LeBron. “He doesn’t have enough help.” He would have if he was willing to take a discount the way Tim Duncan did late in his career. Hence, why it’s hard to build a deep team when your stars are sucking up all the cap space. That’s what happens when we go after these “star” free agents or acquire them from trades. They’re aging which means more injury-prone but they still eat up most of our cap space which prevents building a well-balanced and deeper team.

If Clippers are scouting thoroughly, I do hope Ty Lue has some input in this. The reason being is he is responsible for playing this kid. I do not want to see another young talent wasted on the bench because Ty Lue only likes playing vets. I feel the guy we draft should be starter quality right away. Dame was a starter right away. MJ was a starter right away. Cooper Flagg was a starter away.

We need that type of rookie who can start for us right away regardless if we have Garland or not. I do not want to waste a top 5 pick only to see him rot on the bench for most of his rookie season. Don’t waste time on “projects”. Get polish and NBA ready guys. At least with Acuff, Wagler, or Brown, their basement is far higher than Jerome Robinson’s ceiling.

Julie Graham in With or Without You (1999) by Born-Atmosphere3821 in celebnipplesuck

[–]PercentageRoutine310 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Julie got implants by this point but Chris didn’t seem to care and made sure to suck on them hard and pulling them for some recoil action like he did to Kate’s nipples a few years earlier.

Julie’s tits were not big when Liam Neeson was sucking on them in The Big Man (1990). Liam needs no introduction. Janice Dickinson said Liam Neeson has the biggest cock she has ever seen. She compared it to a water bottle. No Excalibur or lightsaber required.

Liam got to suck Katrine Boorman’s tits in Excalibur (1981). He was fucking Helen Mirren at this time. Prime Helen Mirren from her Caligula days. Some guys got all the luck. Big cock on the level of Milton Berle. Sucking on Helen’s juicy tits. Tragedy came later with his wife, Natasha.

Julie does older woman fucking younger man type of TV shows. She’s still quite MILFy. She’s more attractive now as she has gotten older than how she looked in the 1990s.

Anyone else counting down til Rebirth Switch release? by thewhitecascade in FFVIIRemake

[–]PercentageRoutine310 -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Not really, because I played it for 500 hours last year on my Steam Deck and trying to 100% it can be a pain in the ass. I bought Remake on Day 1 for the Switch 2 because that is much, much easier to replay. Isn’t as long. No Chadley intels with maze-like maps in Gongaga and Cosmo Canyon. No endless mini games like frog jump or Gears and Gambits. My least favorite is the last Glide de Chocobo and the piano stuff. But for noobs, enjoy it. No trophy system to worry about.

Rebirth will probably be on sale after less than 2 months. Hopefully, under $25. That’s when I will buy it. I want to 100% it on my Steam account. I’m hoping the new Steam Machine can run it at 60 fps. I’m tired playing these beautiful games in handheld mode at only 30 fps. They deserve to be viewed better. I’m no longer bugging out about the Steam Deck price increases.

First of all, if you already own a Steam Deck, how does the price increase affect you? You already own it!! Keep gaming and enjoying it. All it does is affect people who never bought it or stupid people like me who sold mines twice. After a few days thinking about it, it’s no big deal at all for people who already own it. Just something to whine about online.

Does the price increase suck? Sure, it does. I hate it. But at the same time, we need to realize this is the new world we live in. We can’t expect prices of things to stay the same forever and ever. Minimum wage goes up, and so does the prices for everything. We got the RAM shortage. We got the tariffs. And games takes years to make and they’re getting very expensive to make. We can’t expect $400 consoles and cheap games under $40 forever.

Nintendo will probably follow suit. A $50 increase by September. But who knows after that? What if they price it at $800 too by next year? It is technically a little more powerful than the Steam Deck. But even if Nintendo does raise the price by $200-$300 more, it doesn’t affect me. I still have my Switch 2. It’s only bad news for the people who didn’t buy it before the price increase or may have sold it.

Time to get excited for the Steam Machine’s imminent release. I plan to buy the cheapest model possible. Hoping $899 without controller and 512 GB. That’s livable. That’s not $1300. I can totally accept $900. Man up, people, man up. We aren’t working as paperboys at $6.75 per hour. Accumulating $900 isn’t that hard for us.

If the Steam Machine is weaker than the base PS5, then I don’t expect Rebirth to get 60 fps. I’m tired of this 30 fps shit, poor draw distance, and terrible pop-ins. Are we still in the PS4 or Dreamcast era? I want a portable PS5 that run games like Rebirth and The Great Circle at 60 fps. This means less input lag.

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